NEOM vs Al-Faisaly FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates NEOM at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this NEOM vs Al-Faisaly FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Al-Faisaly FC travel to King Khalid Sports City to take on NEOM. The game is scheduled for Thursday 11 February 2027, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, NEOM have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. NEOM have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, NEOM have posted 5W 3D 2L at King Khalid Sports City — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Faisaly FC stand at 0W 3D 3L from 6 Pro League matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.67 per game is modest, conceding 1.67 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Al-Faisaly FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Faisaly FC's away record: 0W 1D 2L from 3 road trips in Pro League this season (0.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
NEOM are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 1.20 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. NEOM register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Al-Faisaly FC in 67% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for NEOM, 0 for Al-Faisaly FC and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2026, ended 2–0 with NEOM winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
NEOM trading profile (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Al-Faisaly FC trading profile (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (NEOM 17% | Al-Faisaly FC 50%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (NEOM 33% | Al-Faisaly FC 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NEOM 1.83 xG and Al-Faisaly FC 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NEOM attack 1.093 / defence 0.917 | Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.774 / defence 1.253. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.286. Al-Faisaly FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.253 — this is suppressing NEOM's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 40 NEOM games / 6 Al-Faisaly FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NEOM 57% | Draw 28% | Al-Faisaly FC 16%. Fair-value odds: NEOM 1.75 | Draw 3.57 | Al-Faisaly FC 6.25. The model has a clear lean to NEOM (57%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is NEOM at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: NEOM 60% | Al-Faisaly FC 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NEOM vs Al-Faisaly FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: King Khalid Sports City • Kick-off: Thursday 11 Feb 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NEOM 57% | Draw 28% | Al-Faisaly FC 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 53% | xG NEOM 1.83 / Al-Faisaly FC 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: NEOM attack 1.093 / def 0.917 | Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.774 / def 1.253 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: NEOM (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
NEOM xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Al-Faisaly FC xG
53%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NEOM vs Al-Faisaly FC kick off?
NEOM vs Al-Faisaly FC is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Thursday 11 February 2027 at King Khalid Sports City.
Where is NEOM vs Al-Faisaly FC being played?
The match is being played at King Khalid Sports City.
What competition is NEOM vs Al-Faisaly FC part of?
NEOM vs Al-Faisaly FC is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win NEOM vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Our statistical model gives NEOM a 57% chance of winning, Al-Faisaly FC a 16% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making NEOM the favourite.
Will both teams score in NEOM vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both NEOM and Al-Faisaly FC will score (BTTS).
Will NEOM vs Al-Faisaly FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between NEOM and Al-Faisaly FC?
Record (1 meetings): NEOM 1W | Draws 0 | Al-Faisaly FC 0W.
What form are NEOM and Al-Faisaly FC in?
NEOM (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Al-Faisaly FC (all comps): 0W-3D-3L in 6 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 1.67 | L5 L-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from NEOM's attack rating (1.09) and Al-Faisaly FC's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 1.83 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Faisaly FC's attack versus NEOM's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.8%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
NEOM Win
57%
1.77
28%
3.64
16%
6.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
NEOM xG
Total xG
2.75
0.91
Al-Faisaly FC xG
1.77
57%
Home win
3.64
28%
Draw
6.29
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
16%
6.26
Win to Nil
23%
4.40
3%
39.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.8 | 10.7 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.8 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NEOM vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are NEOM and Al-Faisaly FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for NEOM and 0.91 for Al-Faisaly FC, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for NEOM vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
NEOM's recent record stands at 4W 0D 2L from 6 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for NEOM, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Faisaly FC, meanwhile, have gone 0W 3D 3L across 6 games — 0.50 PPG, with L-D-L-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Faisaly FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours NEOM by 1.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Faisaly FC heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, NEOM have managed 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Faisaly FC's away record stands at 0W 1D 2L across 3 trips, a 0.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, NEOM come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
NEOM are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; Al-Faisaly FC are on 0.67 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NEOM have seen both teams score in 17% of their recent games.
Defensively: NEOM have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 6 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NEOM
Early Season
Al-Faisaly FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NEOM and Al-Faisaly FC in coming into this match?
NEOM have gone 4W 0D 2L in their last 6 games (2.00 PPG), while Al-Faisaly FC have gone 0W 3D 3L in their last 6 (0.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NEOM at home or Al-Faisaly FC away?
NEOM's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NEOM at home: 2.00 PPG; Al-Faisaly FC away: 0.33 PPG.
Have NEOM or Al-Faisaly FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
NEOM have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Al-Faisaly FC in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between NEOM and Al-Faisaly FC runs to 1 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 21 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
1
NEOM
0
Draws
0
Al-Faisaly FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NEOM and Al-Faisaly FC?
From 1 meetings on record, NEOM have won 1, Al-Faisaly FC have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did NEOM and Al-Faisaly FC last play each other?
They last met on 21 August 2026, when Al-Faisaly FC 0-2 NEOM.
Who has won more matches between NEOM and Al-Faisaly FC?
NEOM have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
NEOM are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Al-Faisaly FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NEOM 33%, Al-Faisaly FC 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for NEOM and 67% for Al-Faisaly FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: NEOM keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Al-Faisaly FC in 33%; NEOM have failed to score in 33% of games; Al-Faisaly FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NEOM home games / Al-Faisaly FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NEOM play Al-Faisaly FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of NEOM's recent matches and 67% of Al-Faisaly FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is NEOM vs Al-Faisaly FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of NEOM's matches and 67% of Al-Faisaly FC's.
Do NEOM and Al-Faisaly FC tend to score early?
NEOM have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al-Faisaly FC in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.