Damac 1-1 Al-Fayha – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Damac at 36% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Damac vs Al-Fayha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Damac and Al-Fayha meet at Dhamak Club Stadium in Pro League (matchday 32). This fixture gets under way on Friday 17 May 2024 at 18:15 UK time.
Form
Damac (all games): 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Damac's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Damac are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Al-Fayha's record over their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Last five: W L W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Al-Fayha's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Al-Fayha are 0.90 PPG clear of Damac over their recent games (1.70 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Damac have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins, with Al-Fayha managing 0 and 2 draws.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 1 Dec 2023, ended Damac 4–2 Al-Fayha — a Damac win.
The head-to-head data gives Damac an edge — 3 wins from 5 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading & In-Play
Damac — key trading statistics (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Al-Fayha — key trading statistics (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Damac 52% versus Al-Fayha 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Damac 48% | Al-Fayha 56%). Note also that Al-Fayha surrender HT leads in 44% of cases while Damac recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 38% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Damac 1.32 xG and Al-Fayha 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Damac attack 0.793 / defence 0.855 | Al-Fayha attack 1.092 / defence 1.158. League average goals — home 1.435 / away 1.393. Damac's attack rating of 0.793 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.32. Data: built from Damac's last 61 games and Al-Fayha's last 61.
Result probabilities: Damac 36% | Draw 29% | Al-Fayha 35%. Fair-value odds: Damac 2.80 | Draw 3.41 | Al-Fayha 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Damac have the better head-to-head record in our data (3 wins to 0), yet Al-Fayha are the in-form side right now — head-to-head edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Damac as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Damac 3 wins from 5 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Note a divergence: in-form Al-Fayha (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Damac if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 51% — low conviction — though recent form (Damac's last 10 home games and Al-Fayha's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Damac 30% (last 10 home games) | Al-Fayha 80% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Damac vs Al-Fayha | Competition: Pro League, matchday 32 | Venue: Dhamak Club Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 17 May 2024 at 18:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Damac 36% | Draw 29% | Al-Fayha 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Damac 1.32 / Al-Fayha 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Damac attack 0.793 / def 0.855 | Al-Fayha attack 1.092 / def 1.158 | league avg home 1.435 / away 1.393 • Poisson stance: Damac (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Damac xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Al-Fayha xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Damac vs Al-Fayha FAQs
What time does Damac vs Al-Fayha kick off?
Damac vs Al-Fayha kicked off at 18:15 UK time on Friday 17 May 2024 at Dhamak Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Damac vs Al-Fayha?
Damac 1 - 1 Al-Fayha.
Where is Damac vs Al-Fayha being played?
The match is being played at Dhamak Club Stadium.
What competition is Damac vs Al-Fayha part of?
Damac vs Al-Fayha is a Pro League fixture (matchday 32) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Damac vs Al-Fayha?
Our statistical model gives Damac a 36% chance of winning, Al-Fayha a 35% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Damac the favourite.
Will both teams score in Damac vs Al-Fayha?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Damac and Al-Fayha will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Damac vs Al-Fayha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Damac's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Al-Fayha's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. Flip it around — Al-Fayha's attack (1.09x) against Damac's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from Damac's last 61 games and Al-Fayha's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 2-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Damac Win
36%
2.80
29%
3.41
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Damac xG
Total xG
2.62
1.30
Al-Fayha xG
2.80
36%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
27%
3.67
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
10%
10.26
9%
10.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 9.5 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.5 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.2 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Damac vs Al-Fayha Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Damac vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Damac and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Damac and 1.30 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Damac vs Al-Fayha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Damac's recent record stands at 19W 18D 24L from 61 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-D in the last five.
Al-Fayha, meanwhile, have gone 19W 18D 24L across 61 games — 1.23 PPG, with W-L-W-W-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for Damac against 1.23 for Al-Fayha. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Damac have managed 11W 9D 10L from their last 30 home games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Fayha's away record stands at 11W 7D 12L across their last 30 away games, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Damac are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Al-Fayha are on 1.20 scored and 1.51 conceded.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Damac
Current Season
Al-Fayha
Current Season
Damac (Home) vs Al-Fayha (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Damac
Current Season
Al-Fayha
Current Season
❓ Damac vs Al-Fayha Form FAQs
What form are Damac and Al-Fayha in coming into this match?
Damac have gone 19W 18D 24L in their last 61 games (1.23 PPG), while Al-Fayha have gone 19W 18D 24L in their last 61 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Damac at home or Al-Fayha away?
Damac's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Damac at home: 1.40 PPG; Al-Fayha away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Damac and Al-Fayha, the earliest from November 2021. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was on 15 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Damac won Damac 3-0 Al-Fayha on 15 May 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Damac have gone 2W 3D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Al-Fayha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Damac
5
Draws
1
Al-Fayha
Recent Meetings
❓ Damac vs Al-Fayha H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al-Fayha?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Damac have won 4, Al-Fayha have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Damac and Al-Fayha last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 May 2026: Damac 3-0 Al-Fayha.
Who has won more matches between Damac and Al-Fayha?
Damac have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Damac 50%, Al-Fayha 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Damac) and 63% (Al-Fayha). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Damac have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Damac home games / Al-Fayha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Damac vs Al-Fayha Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Damac and Al-Fayha matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Damac's games and 70% of Al-Fayha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Damac and Al-Fayha matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Damac's matches and 63% of Al-Fayha's.
Do Damac and Al-Fayha matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Damac's recent matches and 67% of Al-Fayha's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Damac and Al-Fayha share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Dhamak Club Stadium, Regular Season - 32, as Damac and Al-Fayha drew 1-1 in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Damac 1.32 xG and Al-Fayha 1.30 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Damac attack 0.79 / defence 0.85 against Al-Fayha attack 1.09 / defence 1.16, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Damac 36% | Draw 29% | Al-Fayha 35%, with Damac to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Damac 48%, Al-Fayha 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Damac's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Fayha's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Damac 1.23 PPG, Al-Fayha 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.