Al-Fayha 2-2 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Fateh at 39%, yet in-form Al-Fayha provide a compelling counter-argument — this Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Fayha host Al-Fateh at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium in Pro League (matchday 31). Kick-off is Thursday 9 May 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Al-Fayha — last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: L W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home, Al-Fayha have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.90 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Al-Fateh stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Al-Fateh's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Al-Fayha are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
Al-Fayha hold a clear advantage across the 5 H2H matches in our data, with 3 wins compared to 0 for Al-Fateh and 2 draws.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.6 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 25 Nov 2023, ended Al-Fayha 1–0 Al-Fateh — a Al-Fayha win.
The head-to-head data gives Al-Fayha an edge — 3 wins from 5 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading Patterns
Al-Fayha in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Al-Fateh in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 55% versus Al-Fateh 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 55% | Al-Fateh 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 1.38 xG and Al-Fateh 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.868 / defence 1.033 | Al-Fateh attack 1.046 / defence 1.081. League average goals — home 1.466 / away 1.378. Data: built from Al-Fayha's last 60 games and Al-Fateh's last 60.
Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 34% | Draw 27% | Al-Fateh 39%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 2.94 | Draw 3.72 | Al-Fateh 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.86. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.86 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Fateh at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al-Fayha (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Fateh offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.86 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Fayha's last 10 home games and Al-Fateh's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Fayha 50% (last 10 home games) | Al-Fateh 90% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, matchday 31 | Venue: Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 9 May 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fayha 34% | Draw 27% | Al-Fateh 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Al-Fayha 1.38 / Al-Fateh 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fayha attack 0.868 / def 1.033 | Al-Fateh attack 1.046 / def 1.081 | league avg home 1.466 / away 1.378 • Poisson stance: Al-Fateh (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Al-Fayha xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Al-Fateh xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh FAQs
What time does Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Thursday 9 May 2024 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh?
Al-Fayha 2 - 2 Al-Fateh.
Where is Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh part of?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh is a Pro League fixture (matchday 31) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fayha a 34% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 39% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Fateh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Al-Fayha and Al-Fateh will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al-Fayha's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Al-Fateh's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fateh's attack versus Al-Fayha's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al-Fayha's last 60 games and Al-Fateh's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fateh Win
34%
2.94
27%
3.72
39%
2.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Al-Fayha xG
Total xG
2.86
1.49
Al-Fateh xG
2.94
34%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
2.56
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
23%
4.43
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
8%
13.01
10%
10.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 8.5 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.7 | 8.7 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Al-Fayha and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Al-Fayha and 1.49 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Fayha come into this having played 60 games, going 19W 17D 24L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-W.
On the other side, Al-Fateh sit at 1.40 PPG from 60 outings (24W 12D 24L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Fayha on 1.23 PPG, Al-Fateh on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Al-Fayha's home form reads 8W 10D 11L across their last 29 home games, a 1.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Fateh have taken 1.48 points per game from their last 29 away games (13W 4D 12L).
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Fayha are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 1.63 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Fateh in 62%.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fayha
Current Season
Al-Fateh
Current Season
Al-Fayha (Home) vs Al-Fateh (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Fayha
Current Season
Al-Fateh
Current Season
❓ Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh Form FAQs
What form are Al-Fayha and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Al-Fayha have gone 19W 17D 24L in their last 60 games (1.23 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 24W 12D 24L in their last 60 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fayha at home or Al-Fateh away?
Al-Fateh's away record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fayha at home: 1.17 PPG; Al-Fateh away: 1.48 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from August 2021. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was on 25 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Al-Fayha have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 9 May 2023, when Al-Fayha won Al-Fayha 3-0 Al-Fateh.
Al-Fayha's record when hosting Al-Fateh specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Al-Fayha
5
Draws
0
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al-Fateh?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Fayha have won 5, Al-Fateh have won 0, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fayha and Al-Fateh last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 January 2026: Al-Fayha 2-0 Al-Fateh.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fayha and Al-Fateh?
Al-Fayha have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fayha 41%, Al-Fateh 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 48% for Al-Fayha and 79% for Al-Fateh. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Fayha keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Al-Fayha have failed to score in 41% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fayha home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Fayha and Al-Fateh matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 41% of Al-Fayha's games and 69% of Al-Fateh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Al-Fayha and Al-Fateh matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Al-Fayha's matches and 79% of Al-Fateh's.
Do Al-Fayha and Al-Fateh matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Al-Fayha's recent matches and 83% of Al-Fateh's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Fayha and Al-Fateh share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fayha and Al-Fateh finished level at 2-2 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 1.38 xG and Al-Fateh 1.49 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 0.87 / defence 1.03 against Al-Fateh attack 1.05 / defence 1.08, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 34% | Draw 27% | Al-Fateh 39%, with Al-Fateh to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 55%, Al-Fateh 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fayha's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Fateh's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Fayha 1.23 PPG, Al-Fateh 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.