Al Wehda Club 2-3 Damac – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Wehda Club at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Wehda Club vs Damac fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al Wehda Club host Damac at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 9 November 2024 at 15:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Wehda Club have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al Wehda Club, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Al Wehda Club have gone 1W 3D 6L this season (10 games, 0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Damac — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Damac, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Damac have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.60 PPG (Al Wehda Club) versus 0.90 (Damac). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Al Wehda Club, 2 for Damac and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Mar 2024, ended 0–1 with Damac winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Al Wehda Club trading profile (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Damac trading profile (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Wehda Club 63% and Damac 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Wehda Club 63% | Damac 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Wehda Club 1.75 xG and Damac 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Wehda Club attack 0.960 / defence 1.345 | Damac attack 0.987 / defence 1.246. League average goals — home 1.458 / away 1.268. Damac bring a strong defensive rating of 1.246 — this is suppressing Al Wehda Club's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Al Wehda Club games / 43 Damac games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Wehda Club 40% | Draw 23% | Damac 37%. Fair-value odds: Al Wehda Club 2.50 | Draw 4.35 | Damac 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.43. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.43 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.75 / 1.68) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al Wehda Club as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Wehda Club offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.43 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Wehda Club 70% | Damac 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Wehda Club vs Damac | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Nov 2024, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Wehda Club 40% | Draw 23% | Damac 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 67% | xG Al Wehda Club 1.75 / Damac 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: Al Wehda Club attack 0.960 / def 1.345 | Damac attack 0.987 / def 1.246 | league avg home 1.458 / away 1.268 • Poisson stance: Al Wehda Club (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Al Wehda Club xG
Expected Goals
1.68
Damac xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Wehda Club vs Damac kick off?
Al Wehda Club vs Damac kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 9 November 2024 at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Wehda Club vs Damac?
Al Wehda Club 2 - 3 Damac.
Where is Al Wehda Club vs Damac being played?
The match is being played at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al Wehda Club vs Damac part of?
Al Wehda Club vs Damac is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Wehda Club vs Damac?
Our statistical model gives Al Wehda Club a 40% chance of winning, Damac a 37% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al Wehda Club the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Wehda Club vs Damac?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Al Wehda Club and Damac will score (BTTS).
Will Al Wehda Club vs Damac have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wehda Club and Damac?
Record (4 meetings): Al Wehda Club 1W | Draws 1 | Damac 2W.
What form are Al Wehda Club and Damac in?
Al Wehda Club (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. Damac (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-D-L-D.
What do the betting odds say about Al Wehda Club vs Damac?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al Wehda Club's attack at 0.96x the league average against Damac's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 1.75 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Damac's attack versus Al Wehda Club's defence, projects 1.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.3%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Wehda Club Win
40%
2.50
23%
4.44
37%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Al Wehda Club xG
Total xG
3.43
1.68
Damac xG
2.50
40%
Home win
4.44
23%
Draw
2.67
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.05
Clean Sheet
19%
5.38
17%
5.73
Win to Nil
7%
13.43
7%
15.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 5.5 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 9.5 | 8.0 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.3 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.8 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Wehda Club vs Damac?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Al Wehda Club and Damac expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Al Wehda Club and 1.68 for Damac, a combined total of 3.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Wehda Club vs Damac?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Wehda Club come into this having played 43 games, going 11W 9D 23L for 0.98 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-L-L. The sample for Al Wehda Club is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Damac sit at 1.14 PPG from 43 outings (12W 13D 18L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Damac is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Wehda Club on 0.98 PPG, Damac on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Al Wehda Club's home form reads 6W 6D 9L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.14 PPG return.
Away from home, Damac have taken 0.81 points per game from 21 outings (4W 5D 12L).
Goals in Recent Form
Al Wehda Club are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.95 conceded per game recently; Damac are on 1.33 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Wehda Club have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 43 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Wehda Club
Blended
Damac
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Wehda Club and Damac in coming into this match?
Al Wehda Club have gone 11W 9D 23L in their last 43 games (0.98 PPG), while Damac have gone 12W 13D 18L in their last 43 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Wehda Club at home or Damac away?
Al Wehda Club's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Wehda Club at home: 1.14 PPG; Damac away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 April 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Al Wehda Club's record when hosting Damac specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Al Wehda Club
1
Draws
3
Damac
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wehda Club and Damac?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Wehda Club have won 2, Damac have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Wehda Club and Damac last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2025, when Damac 0-1 Al Wehda Club.
Who has won more matches between Al Wehda Club and Damac?
Damac have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Wehda Club are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al Wehda Club at 71%, Damac at 62%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Al Wehda Club) and 52% (Damac). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Damac in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Wehda Club home games / Damac away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Wehda Club play Damac?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Al Wehda Club's games and 62% of Damac's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Wehda Club vs Damac usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Al Wehda Club's matches and 52% of Damac's.
Do Al Wehda Club and Damac tend to score early?
Al Wehda Club have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Damac in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Damac defy the odds to beat Al Wehda Club 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Damac beat Al Wehda Club 2-3 at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Wehda Club 1.75 xG and Damac 1.68 xG, a combined 3.43. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Damac outscored their 1.68 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Wehda Club attack 0.96 / defence 1.34 against Damac attack 0.99 / defence 1.25, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Wehda Club 40% | Draw 23% | Damac 37%, with Al Wehda Club to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Damac win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Wehda Club 63%, Damac 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Wehda Club's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Damac's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Wehda Club 0.98 PPG, Damac 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Damac win broke the near-deadlock. Al Wehda Club (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Damac (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.