Al Wehda Club 1-1 Al-Fayha – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Al Wehda Club at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al Wehda Club face Al-Fayha.

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Fixture Analysis

Al Wehda Club welcome Al-Fayha to King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium in Pro League (matchday 9). Kick-off is Saturday 7 October 2023 at 20:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Al Wehda Club have gone 5W 0D 5L — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Al Wehda Club's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Al-Fayha — last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

When travelling, Al-Fayha have posted 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Al Wehda Club) versus 1.30 (Al-Fayha). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Al Wehda Club's games and 70% of Al-Fayha's (from Al Wehda Club's last 10 home games and Al-Fayha's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Al Wehda Club have won 0, Al-Fayha 2, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 2 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.5 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 31 May 2023, ended Al Wehda Club 0–1 Al-Fayha — a Al-Fayha win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Data

Al Wehda Club trading profile (last 38 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

Al-Fayha trading profile (last 38 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Wehda Club 45% versus Al-Fayha 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Wehda Club 47% | Al-Fayha 45%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Wehda Club 1.85 xG and Al-Fayha 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Wehda Club attack 1.348 / defence 1.082 | Al-Fayha attack 1.003 / defence 0.934. League average goals — home 1.471 / away 1.456. Al Wehda Club carry an above-average attack rating of 1.348 — their 1.85 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Al Wehda Club's last 38 games and Al-Fayha's last 38.

Result probabilities: Al Wehda Club 44% | Draw 22% | Al-Fayha 33%. Fair-value odds: Al Wehda Club 2.25 | Draw 4.48 | Al-Fayha 3.01. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS Yes probability 67% | Total xG 3.43. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.43 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% — both xG figures (1.85 / 1.58) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Al Wehda Club as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Wehda Club offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.43 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al Wehda Club's last 10 home games and Al-Fayha's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al Wehda Club 60% (last 10 home games) | Al-Fayha 70% (last 10 away games).

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