Al Khaleej Saihat 0-0 Al-Raed – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Raed at 47%, yet in-form Al Khaleej Saihat provide a compelling counter-argument — this Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Raed fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al Khaleej Saihat host Al-Raed at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 7 October 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al Khaleej Saihat — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Khaleej Saihat, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Khaleej Saihat's home record at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Pro League appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Raed stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Raed, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al-Raed have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
On current form, Al Khaleej Saihat have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 1, Al-Raed 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 27 May 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Al Khaleej Saihat in-play tendencies (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Al-Raed in-play tendencies (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Khaleej Saihat 42% versus Al-Raed 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Khaleej Saihat 47% | Al-Raed 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Khaleej Saihat 1.04 xG and Al-Raed 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.735 / defence 1.261 | Al-Raed attack 0.800 / defence 0.961. League average goals — home 1.471 / away 1.456. Al Khaleej Saihat's attack strength of 0.735 is below the league average — the 1.04 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 38 Al Khaleej Saihat games / 38 Al-Raed games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 27% | Draw 26% | Al-Raed 47%. Fair-value odds: Al Khaleej Saihat 3.70 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Raed 2.13. Al-Raed hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Raed are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al Khaleej Saihat (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Raed offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.51 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. This conflicts with form data: Al Khaleej Saihat 70% | Al-Raed 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Raed | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Oct 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 27% | Draw 26% | Al-Raed 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG Al Khaleej Saihat 1.04 / Al-Raed 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.735 / def 1.261 | Al-Raed attack 0.800 / def 0.961 | league avg home 1.471 / away 1.456 • Poisson stance: Al-Raed (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Al-Raed xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Raed kick off?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Raed kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 7 October 2023 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Raed?
Al Khaleej Saihat 0 - 0 Al-Raed.
Where is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Raed being played?
The match is being played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Raed part of?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Raed is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Raed?
Our statistical model gives Al Khaleej Saihat a 27% chance of winning, Al-Raed a 47% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al-Raed the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Raed?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Raed will score (BTTS).
Will Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Raed have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Raed?
Record (2 meetings): Al Khaleej Saihat 1W | Draws 1 | Al-Raed 0W.
What form are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Raed in?
Al Khaleej Saihat (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Al-Raed (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al Khaleej Saihat's attack at 0.73x the league average against Al-Raed's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.04 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Raed's attack versus Al Khaleej Saihat's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.3%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Raed Win
27%
3.74
26%
3.82
47%
2.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Total xG
2.51
1.47
Al-Raed xG
3.74
27%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
2.12
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
23%
4.35
35%
2.83
Win to Nil
6%
16.26
17%
6.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 12.0 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.4 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.5 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Raed?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Raed expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Al Khaleej Saihat and 1.47 for Al-Raed, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Raed?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 38 outings, Al Khaleej Saihat have picked up 1.03 PPG on a 11W 6D 21L record — D-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Al Khaleej Saihat is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Raed's form line: 10W 8D 20L from 38 games, 1.00 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-L. The sample for Al-Raed is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Khaleej Saihat on 1.03 PPG, Al-Raed on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al Khaleej Saihat have posted 1.17 PPG from 18 outings (6W 3D 9L).
On the road, Al-Raed have gone 4W 5D 9L from 18 away games — 0.94 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Khaleej Saihat are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Al-Raed are on 1.24 scored and 1.68 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Khaleej Saihat
Blended
Al-Raed
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Raed in coming into this match?
Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 11W 6D 21L in their last 38 games (1.03 PPG), while Al-Raed have gone 10W 8D 20L in their last 38 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Khaleej Saihat at home or Al-Raed away?
Al Khaleej Saihat's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Khaleej Saihat at home: 1.17 PPG; Al-Raed away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Al Khaleej Saihat go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Nov 2024, when Al Khaleej Saihat won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Khaleej Saihat's record when hosting Al-Raed specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Al Khaleej Saihat
2
Draws
0
Al-Raed
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Raed?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 4, Al-Raed have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Raed last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2025, when Al-Raed 1-2 Al Khaleej Saihat.
Who has won more matches between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Raed?
Al Khaleej Saihat have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Khaleej Saihat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Al-Raed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Khaleej Saihat 56%, Al-Raed 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Al Khaleej Saihat and 67% for Al-Raed. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Khaleej Saihat have failed to score in 28% of games; Al-Raed in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Khaleej Saihat home games / Al-Raed away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Khaleej Saihat play Al-Raed?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Al Khaleej Saihat's games and 56% of Al-Raed's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Raed usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Al Khaleej Saihat's matches and 67% of Al-Raed's.
Do Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Raed tend to score early?
Al Khaleej Saihat have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Al-Raed in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Al Khaleej Saihat's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Raed finished level at 0-0 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Khaleej Saihat 1.04 xG and Al-Raed 1.47 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al Khaleej Saihat fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Al-Raed landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.73 / defence 1.26 against Al-Raed attack 0.80 / defence 0.96, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Khaleej Saihat 27% | Draw 26% | Al-Raed 47%, with Al-Raed to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Khaleej Saihat 47%, Al-Raed 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Raed's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Khaleej Saihat 1.03 PPG, Al-Raed 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al Khaleej Saihat (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Raed (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.