Al Taawon 1-0 Al Okhdood – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Taawon at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Taawon vs Al Okhdood fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Al Okhdood travel to Al Taawoun Club Stadium to take on Al Taawon. The game is scheduled for Saturday 9 November 2024, 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al Taawon — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D W D L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Al Taawon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Taawon have posted 6W 3D 1L at Al Taawoun Club Stadium — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Al Taawoun Club Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Al Taawon are significantly better at Al Taawoun Club Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Okhdood have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al Okhdood, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Okhdood's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al Taawon at 1.50 PPG versus Al Okhdood's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Al Taawon, 0 for Al Okhdood and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Feb 2024, ended 3–1 with Al Taawon winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Al Taawon in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Al Okhdood in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taawon 51% versus Al Okhdood 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taawon 40% | Al Okhdood 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taawon 1.52 xG and Al Okhdood 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taawon attack 0.971 / defence 0.767 | Al Okhdood attack 1.034 / defence 1.073. League average goals — home 1.460 / away 1.283. Al Taawon's defence rating of 0.767 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 Al Taawon games / 43 Al Okhdood games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Taawon 49% | Draw 26% | Al Okhdood 25%. Fair-value odds: Al Taawon 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | Al Okhdood 4.00. Al Taawon hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Taawon are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Taawon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Al Taawon 30% | Al Okhdood 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taawon vs Al Okhdood | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Al Taawoun Club Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Nov 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taawon 49% | Draw 26% | Al Okhdood 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 50% | xG Al Taawon 1.52 / Al Okhdood 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taawon attack 0.971 / def 0.767 | Al Okhdood attack 1.034 / def 1.073 | league avg home 1.460 / away 1.283 • Poisson stance: Al Taawon (49%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Al Taawon xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Al Okhdood xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taawon vs Al Okhdood kick off?
Al Taawon vs Al Okhdood kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 9 November 2024 at Al Taawoun Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Taawon vs Al Okhdood?
Al Taawon 1 - 0 Al Okhdood.
Where is Al Taawon vs Al Okhdood being played?
The match is being played at Al Taawoun Club Stadium.
What competition is Al Taawon vs Al Okhdood part of?
Al Taawon vs Al Okhdood is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taawon vs Al Okhdood?
Our statistical model gives Al Taawon a 49% chance of winning, Al Okhdood a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al Taawon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taawon vs Al Okhdood?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Al Taawon and Al Okhdood will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taawon vs Al Okhdood have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al Okhdood?
Record (2 meetings): Al Taawon 2W | Draws 0 | Al Okhdood 0W.
What form are Al Taawon and Al Okhdood in?
Al Taawon (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-D-L-D. Al Okhdood (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
What do the betting odds say about Al Taawon vs Al Okhdood?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al Taawon's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Al Okhdood's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. The same calculation in reverse, Al Okhdood's attack versus Al Taawon's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taawon Win
49%
2.04
26%
3.89
25%
3.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Al Taawon xG
Total xG
2.54
1.02
Al Okhdood xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
3.95
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
22%
4.58
Win to Nil
18%
5.66
6%
18.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 8.0 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.2 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taawon vs Al Okhdood?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Al Taawon and Al Okhdood expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Al Taawon and 1.02 for Al Okhdood, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taawon vs Al Okhdood?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al Taawon's recent record stands at 19W 14D 10L from 43 games, a 1.65 PPG return, with D-W-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Al Taawon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Okhdood, meanwhile, have gone 11W 8D 24L across 43 games — 0.95 PPG, with W-L-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Al Okhdood is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al Taawon by 0.70 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Okhdood heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al Taawon have managed 11W 5D 5L from 21 games — 1.81 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Okhdood's away record stands at 4W 6D 11L across 21 trips, a 0.86 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Taawon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al Taawon are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Al Okhdood are on 1.02 scored and 1.51 conceded.
Defensively: Al Taawon have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taawon
Blended
Al Okhdood
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taawon and Al Okhdood in coming into this match?
Al Taawon have gone 19W 14D 10L in their last 43 games (1.65 PPG), while Al Okhdood have gone 11W 8D 24L in their last 43 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taawon at home or Al Okhdood away?
Al Taawon's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taawon at home: 1.81 PPG; Al Okhdood away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Al Taawon or Al Okhdood been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Taawon have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Al Okhdood in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Taawon and Al Okhdood runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 30 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al Taawon have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Al Taawon's record when hosting Al Okhdood specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Al Taawon
1
Draws
0
Al Okhdood
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al Okhdood?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Taawon have won 5, Al Okhdood have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Taawon and Al Okhdood last play each other?
They last met on 30 January 2026, when Al Taawon 1-0 Al Okhdood.
Who has won more matches between Al Taawon and Al Okhdood?
Al Taawon have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Al Okhdood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Taawon 52%, Al Okhdood 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Al Taawon) and 48% (Al Okhdood).
On the defensive side: Al Taawon keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Al Okhdood in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taawon home games / Al Okhdood away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taawon play Al Okhdood?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Al Taawon's recent matches and 48% of Al Okhdood's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Taawon vs Al Okhdood usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Al Taawon's recent games and 48% of Al Okhdood's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Taawon and Al Okhdood tend to score early?
Al Taawon have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Al Okhdood in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Taawon edge out Al Okhdood 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Taawon beat Al Okhdood 1-0 at Al Taawoun Club Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taawon 1.52 xG and Al Okhdood 1.02 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al Okhdood landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taawon attack 0.97 / defence 0.77 against Al Okhdood attack 1.03 / defence 1.07, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Taawon 49% | Draw 26% | Al Okhdood 25%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taawon 40%, Al Okhdood 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taawon's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al Okhdood's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Taawon arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 0.95. Form held, and they took the win. Al Taawon (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Al Okhdood (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.