Al Taawon 1-1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC (59%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al Taawon face Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Hilal Saudi FC make the trip to Al Taawon Arena to face Al Taawon in Pro League, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Tuesday 24 February 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al Taawon have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Taawon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Taawon's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Al Taawon Arena this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Al Taawon are significantly better at Al Taawon Arena than their overall form suggests.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all games): 6W 4D 0L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: D D W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have posted 7W 3D 0L from 10 away outings — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 3.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Al-Hilal Saudi FC are 1.10 PPG clear of Al Taawon in recent Pro League fixtures (2.20 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Al Taawon have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Across the last 8 meetings, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the stronger historical record — 7 wins to Al Taawon's 1, with 0 draws in the mix.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 8 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 15 Mar 2025, ended 0–2 with Al-Hilal Saudi FC winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 7 of 8 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Al Taawon goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Al-Hilal Saudi FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taawon 46% versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taawon 39% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taawon 1.26 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taawon attack 1.026 / defence 1.001 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.627 / defence 0.823. League average goals — home 1.491 / away 1.378. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.627 — the away xG of 2.24 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 56 Al Taawon games / 56 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Taawon 20% | Draw 20% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 59%. Fair-value odds: Al Taawon 5.00 | Draw 5.00 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.69. The model has a clear lean to Al-Hilal Saudi FC (59%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.50. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.50 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.26 / 2.24) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.50 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Taawon 60% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taawon vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Al Taawon Arena • Kick-off: Tuesday 24 Feb 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taawon 20% | Draw 20% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 64% | xG Al Taawon 1.26 / Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.24 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taawon attack 1.026 / def 1.001 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.627 / def 0.823 | league avg home 1.491 / away 1.378 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Al Taawon xG
Expected Goals
2.24
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
64%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taawon vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kick off?
Al Taawon vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kicked off at 19:00 on Tuesday 24 February 2026 at Al Taawon Arena.
What was the final score in Al Taawon vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al Taawon 1 - 1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Where is Al Taawon vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC being played?
The match is being played at Al Taawon Arena.
What competition is Al Taawon vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC part of?
Al Taawon vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taawon vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Taawon a 20% chance of winning, Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 59% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taawon vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Al Taawon and Al-Hilal Saudi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taawon vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Record (8 meetings): Al Taawon 1W | Draws 0 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 7W.
What form are Al Taawon and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in?
Al Taawon (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al Taawon's attack rating (1.03) and Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack (1.63x) against Al Taawon's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 2.24.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
20%
4.91
20%
4.95
59%
1.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
0 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Al Taawon xG
Total xG
3.50
2.24
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
4.91
20%
Home win
4.95
20%
Draw
1.68
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.79
Clean Sheet
11%
9.43
28%
3.52
Win to Nil
2%
46.30
17%
5.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 6.8 | 7.6 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 3.8 | 8.5 | 9.5 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 5.4 | 6.0 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taawon vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Al Taawon and Al-Hilal Saudi FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Al Taawon and 2.24 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, a combined total of 3.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taawon vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 56 outings, Al Taawon have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 24W 12D 20L record — W-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Al Taawon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's form line: 39W 12D 5L from 56 games, 2.30 PPG, last five D-D-W-W-D. The sample for Al-Hilal Saudi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the form team by 0.80 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Taawon.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Al Taawon have posted 1.63 PPG from 27 outings (12W 8D 7L).
On the road, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 17W 7D 3L from 27 away games — 2.15 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al Taawon are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Al-Hilal Saudi FC are on 2.70 scored and 1.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 62%.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taawon
Blended
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taawon and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in coming into this match?
Al Taawon have gone 24W 12D 20L in their last 56 games (1.50 PPG), while Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 39W 12D 5L in their last 56 (2.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taawon at home or Al-Hilal Saudi FC away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record (2.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taawon at home: 1.63 PPG; Al-Hilal Saudi FC away: 2.15 PPG.
Have Al Taawon or Al-Hilal Saudi FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Taawon have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 0-4 on 10 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Taawon have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Hilal Saudi FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Al Taawon
2
Draws
7
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Taawon have won 1, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Taawon and Al-Hilal Saudi FC last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2-2 Al Taawon.
Who has won more matches between Al Taawon and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Taawon 52%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Al Taawon) and 70% (Al-Hilal Saudi FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Taawon keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taawon home games / Al-Hilal Saudi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taawon play Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Al Taawon's games and 67% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Taawon vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 41% of Al Taawon's matches and 70% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's.
Do Al Taawon and Al-Hilal Saudi FC tend to score early?
Al Taawon have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 93% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Taawon and Al-Hilal Saudi FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Al Taawon Arena, Regular Season - 10, as Al Taawon and Al-Hilal Saudi FC drew 1-1 in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taawon 1.26 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.24 xG, a combined 3.50. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Al-Hilal Saudi FC landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taawon attack 1.03 / defence 1.00 against Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.63 / defence 0.82, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Taawon 20% | Draw 20% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 59%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taawon 39%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taawon's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.30 PPG against 1.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.63 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.