Al Taawon 1-0 Al-Ettifaq – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ettifaq at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Taawon vs Al-Ettifaq fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al Taawon and Al-Ettifaq meet at Al Taawon Club Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 34. This fixture gets under way on Monday 27 May 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Al Taawon (all games): 4W 5D 1L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L D W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Al Taawon's home record at Al Taawon Club Stadium: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Ettifaq have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: D L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Al-Ettifaq away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Al Taawon 3W, Al-Ettifaq 1W, 1D.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Dec 2023, ended 2–0 with Al Taawon winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Al Taawon — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Al-Ettifaq — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taawon 60% versus Al-Ettifaq 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taawon 49% | Al-Ettifaq 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taawon 1.12 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taawon attack 1.008 / defence 0.947 | Al-Ettifaq attack 1.172 / defence 0.756. League average goals — home 1.466 / away 1.331. Al-Ettifaq's defence strength of 0.756 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 63 Al Taawon games / 63 Al-Ettifaq games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Taawon 26% | Draw 31% | Al-Ettifaq 43%. Fair-value odds: Al Taawon 3.85 | Draw 3.23 | Al-Ettifaq 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ettifaq are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ettifaq if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.59 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Al Taawon 60% | Al-Ettifaq 30%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taawon vs Al-Ettifaq | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Al Taawon Club Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 27 May 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taawon 26% | Draw 31% | Al-Ettifaq 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG Al Taawon 1.12 / Al-Ettifaq 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taawon attack 1.008 / def 0.947 | Al-Ettifaq attack 1.172 / def 0.756 | league avg home 1.466 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: Al-Ettifaq (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Al Taawon xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Al-Ettifaq xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taawon vs Al-Ettifaq kick off?
Al Taawon vs Al-Ettifaq kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 27 May 2024 at Al Taawon Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Taawon vs Al-Ettifaq?
Al Taawon 1 - 0 Al-Ettifaq.
Where is Al Taawon vs Al-Ettifaq being played?
The match is being played at Al Taawon Club Stadium.
What competition is Al Taawon vs Al-Ettifaq part of?
Al Taawon vs Al-Ettifaq is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taawon vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our statistical model gives Al Taawon a 26% chance of winning, Al-Ettifaq a 43% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Al-Ettifaq the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taawon vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Al Taawon and Al-Ettifaq will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taawon vs Al-Ettifaq have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al-Ettifaq?
Record (5 meetings): Al Taawon 3W | Draws 1 | Al-Ettifaq 1W.
What form are Al Taawon and Al-Ettifaq in?
Al Taawon (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-D-W-D. Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al Taawon's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Al-Ettifaq's defensive record (0.76x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. Flip it around — Al-Ettifaq's attack (1.17x) against Al Taawon's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.48.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.4%), 1-2 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ettifaq Win
26%
3.82
31%
3.24
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Al Taawon xG
Total xG
2.59
1.48
Al-Ettifaq xG
3.82
26%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
23%
4.38
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
6%
16.74
14%
7.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 11.0 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.3 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.9 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taawon vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Al Taawon and Al-Ettifaq expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Al Taawon and 1.48 for Al-Ettifaq, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taawon vs Al-Ettifaq?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al Taawon's recent record stands at 31W 18D 14L from 63 games, a 1.76 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-D in the last five.
Al-Ettifaq, meanwhile, have gone 22W 19D 22L across 63 games — 1.35 PPG, with D-L-W-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al Taawon by 0.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Ettifaq heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Al Taawon have managed 15W 7D 9L from 31 games — 1.68 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Ettifaq's away record stands at 9W 9D 13L across 31 trips, a 1.16 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Taawon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Taawon are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Al-Ettifaq are on 1.13 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Taawon have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 63 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taawon
Current Season
Al-Ettifaq
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taawon and Al-Ettifaq in coming into this match?
Al Taawon have gone 31W 18D 14L in their last 63 games (1.76 PPG), while Al-Ettifaq have gone 22W 19D 22L in their last 63 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taawon at home or Al-Ettifaq away?
Al Taawon's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taawon at home: 1.68 PPG; Al-Ettifaq away: 1.16 PPG.
Have Al Taawon or Al-Ettifaq been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Taawon have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Al-Ettifaq in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 3 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ettifaq won 0-4 on 5 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Taawon have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Ettifaq — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Al Taawon
2
Draws
3
Al-Ettifaq
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al-Ettifaq?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Taawon have won 5, Al-Ettifaq have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Taawon and Al-Ettifaq last play each other?
They last met on 3 February 2026, when Al-Ettifaq 1-0 Al Taawon.
Who has won more matches between Al Taawon and Al-Ettifaq?
Al Taawon have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Taawon 64%, Al-Ettifaq 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Al Taawon) and 36% (Al-Ettifaq).
On the defensive side: Al-Ettifaq in 36%; Al-Ettifaq in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taawon home games / Al-Ettifaq away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taawon play Al-Ettifaq?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Al Taawon's recent matches and 32% of Al-Ettifaq's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Taawon vs Al-Ettifaq usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Al Taawon's recent games and 36% of Al-Ettifaq's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Taawon and Al-Ettifaq tend to score early?
Al Taawon have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Al-Ettifaq in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al Taawon defy the odds to beat Al-Ettifaq 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Taawon beat Al-Ettifaq 1-0 at Al Taawon Club Stadium, Regular Season - 34, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taawon 1.12 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.48 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al-Ettifaq landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taawon attack 1.01 / defence 0.95 against Al-Ettifaq attack 1.17 / defence 0.76, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Taawon 26% | Draw 31% | Al-Ettifaq 43%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Al Taawon win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taawon 49%, Al-Ettifaq 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taawon's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Taawon arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.35. Form held, and they took the win. Al Taawon (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.