Al-Nassr 4-2 Al-Ittihad FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Nassr at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Nassr vs Al-Ittihad FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 34 as Al-Nassr welcome Al-Ittihad FC to Al Awal Park at King Saud University. Kick-off is set for Monday 27 May 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Nassr — All Games: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 2.60 points per game. Last five: W W W D D. They are averaging 3.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Al-Nassr's home record at Al Awal Park at King Saud University: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Pro League appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 3.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ittihad FC stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Al-Ittihad FC away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Al-Nassr carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.20 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.60 vs 1.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Al-Nassr, 3 for Al-Ittihad FC and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Dec 2023, ended 5–2 with Al-Nassr winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Al-Nassr in-play and half-time data (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
Al-Ittihad FC in-play and half-time data (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Nassr 52% versus Al-Ittihad FC 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Nassr 70% | Al-Ittihad FC 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Nassr 2.64 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Nassr attack 1.646 / defence 0.953 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.096 / defence 1.095. League average goals — home 1.466 / away 1.331. Al-Nassr carry an above-average attack strength of 1.646 — their λ of 2.64 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 63 Al-Nassr games / 63 Al-Ittihad FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Nassr 63% | Draw 20% | Al-Ittihad FC 17%. Fair-value odds: Al-Nassr 1.59 | Draw 5.00 | Al-Ittihad FC 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Al-Nassr (63%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 4.03. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.03 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (2.64 / 1.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Al-Ittihad FC lead the H2H ledger, but Al-Nassr carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Al-Nassr as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 4.03 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 77% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 71%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Nassr 80% | Al-Ittihad FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Nassr vs Al-Ittihad FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Al Awal Park at King Saud University • Kick-off: Monday 27 May 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Nassr 63% | Draw 20% | Al-Ittihad FC 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% | BTTS 71% | xG Al-Nassr 2.64 / Al-Ittihad FC 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Nassr attack 1.646 / def 0.953 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.096 / def 1.095 | league avg home 1.466 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.64
Al-Nassr xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Al-Ittihad FC xG
71%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Nassr vs Al-Ittihad FC kick off?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Ittihad FC kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 27 May 2024 at Al Awal Park at King Saud University.
What was the final score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Nassr 4 - 2 Al-Ittihad FC.
Where is Al-Nassr vs Al-Ittihad FC being played?
The match is being played at Al Awal Park at King Saud University.
What competition is Al-Nassr vs Al-Ittihad FC part of?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Ittihad FC is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Nassr vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Nassr a 63% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad FC a 17% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Al-Nassr and Al-Ittihad FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Nassr vs Al-Ittihad FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Ittihad FC?
Record (5 meetings): Al-Nassr 1W | Draws 1 | Al-Ittihad FC 3W.
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Ittihad FC in?
Al-Nassr (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 3.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-D-D. Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al-Nassr's attack at 1.65x the league average against Al-Ittihad FC's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 2.64 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ittihad FC's attack versus Al-Nassr's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-1 (7.6%), 1-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
63%
1.59
20%
5.01
17%
5.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.6%
Home win
1 – 1
6.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.64
Al-Nassr xG
Total xG
4.03
1.39
Al-Ittihad FC xG
1.59
63%
Home win
5.01
20%
Draw
5.84
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
57%
Over 3.5
1.75
43%
Under 3.5
2.33
38%
Over 4.5
2.63
62%
Under 4.5
1.61
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.41
29%
BTTS No
3.45
Clean Sheet
25%
4.01
7%
14.04
Win to Nil
16%
6.38
1%
82.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 6.5 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.6 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 7.6 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Nassr vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.6%.
How many goals are Al-Nassr and Al-Ittihad FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.64 expected goals for Al-Nassr and 1.39 for Al-Ittihad FC, a combined total of 4.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Nassr vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 63 outings, Al-Nassr have picked up 2.32 PPG on a 45W 11D 7L record — W-W-W-D-D across the most recent five.
Al-Ittihad FC's form line: 38W 12D 13L from 63 games, 2.00 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Nassr on 2.32 PPG, Al-Ittihad FC on 2.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al-Nassr have posted 2.42 PPG from 31 outings (23W 6D 2L).
On the road, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 17W 8D 6L from 31 away games — 1.90 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Nassr are averaging 2.52 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad FC are on 1.92 scored and 1.00 conceded. Al-Nassr's scoring rate against Al-Ittihad FC's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; Al-Ittihad FC in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Nassr
Current Season
Al-Ittihad FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Ittihad FC in coming into this match?
Al-Nassr have gone 45W 11D 7L in their last 63 games (2.32 PPG), while Al-Ittihad FC have gone 38W 12D 13L in their last 63 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Nassr at home or Al-Ittihad FC away?
Al-Nassr's home record (2.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Nassr at home: 2.42 PPG; Al-Ittihad FC away: 1.90 PPG.
Have Al-Nassr or Al-Ittihad FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Al-Ittihad FC in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Nassr have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Feb 2022, when Al-Ittihad FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Nassr's record when hosting Al-Ittihad FC specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Al-Nassr
1
Draws
5
Al-Ittihad FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Ittihad FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Nassr have won 4, Al-Ittihad FC have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Nassr and Al-Ittihad FC last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when Al-Nassr 2-0 Al-Ittihad FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Nassr and Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Nassr 61%, Al-Ittihad FC 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Al-Nassr and 61% for Al-Ittihad FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Nassr keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Al-Ittihad FC in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Nassr home games / Al-Ittihad FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Nassr play Al-Ittihad FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Al-Nassr's games and 52% of Al-Ittihad FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Nassr vs Al-Ittihad FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Al-Nassr's matches and 61% of Al-Ittihad FC's.
Do Al-Nassr and Al-Ittihad FC tend to score early?
Al-Nassr have had a goal before half-time in 94% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad FC in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Nassr cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Al-Ittihad FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Nassr beat Al-Ittihad FC 4-2 at Al Awal Park at King Saud University, Regular Season - 34, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Nassr 2.64 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.39 xG, a combined 4.03. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Al-Nassr beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Nassr attack 1.65 / defence 0.95 against Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.10 / defence 1.09, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Nassr 63% | Draw 20% | Al-Ittihad FC 17%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 63%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 57% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Nassr 70%, Al-Ittihad FC 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Nassr's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Nassr 2.32 PPG, Al-Ittihad FC 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Nassr win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.58 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.