Al Shabab 2-0 Al Taee – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al Shabab (56%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Al Shabab face Al Taee.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al Taee make the trip to Al-Shabab Club Stadium to face Al Shabab in Pro League (matchday 10). The match kicks off on Saturday 21 October 2023 at 20:00 UK time.
Form
Al Shabab (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Al Shabab at home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al Taee have collected 0.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Al Taee away from home: 0W 3D 7L from their last 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Al Shabab. A 0.50 PPG lead over Al Taee (1.20 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Al Shabab's last 10 home games and Al Taee's last 10 away games) — Al Shabab have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Al Taee in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record in our data favours Al Shabab, who have won 3 of the 4 H2H matches we hold against Al Taee — Al Taee have 0 wins, with 1 draw.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.5 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 27 Jan 2023, ended Al Shabab 2–1 Al Taee — a Al Shabab win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Al Shabab and goals — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches and an average of 3.5 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading & In-Play
Al Shabab — key trading statistics (last 39 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Al Taee — key trading statistics (last 39 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Shabab 56% versus Al Taee 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Shabab 64% | Al Taee 59%). Note also that Al Taee surrender HT leads in 27% of cases while Al Shabab recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 42% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Shabab 2.02 xG and Al Taee 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Shabab attack 1.052 / defence 1.050 | Al Taee attack 0.817 / defence 1.282. League average goals — home 1.499 / away 1.433. Al Taee's defence rating of 1.282 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al Shabab's projected output up. Data: built from Al Shabab's last 39 games and Al Taee's last 39.
Result probabilities: Al Shabab 56% | Draw 21% | Al Taee 23%. Fair-value odds: Al Shabab 1.80 | Draw 4.67 | Al Taee 4.37. The model has a clear lean to Al Shabab (56%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (2.02 / 1.23) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Shabab are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.25 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Al Shabab's last 10 home games and Al Taee's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al Shabab 60% (last 10 home games) | Al Taee 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Shabab vs Al Taee | Competition: Pro League, matchday 10 | Venue: Al-Shabab Club Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 October 2023 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Shabab 56% | Draw 21% | Al Taee 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% (Under 37%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Al Shabab 2.02 / Al Taee 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Al Shabab attack 1.052 / def 1.050 | Al Taee attack 0.817 / def 1.282 | league avg home 1.499 / away 1.433 • Poisson stance: Al Shabab (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
Al Shabab xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Al Taee xG
61%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al Shabab vs Al Taee FAQs
What time does Al Shabab vs Al Taee kick off?
Al Shabab vs Al Taee kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Saturday 21 October 2023 at Al-Shabab Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Shabab vs Al Taee?
Al Shabab 2 - 0 Al Taee.
Where is Al Shabab vs Al Taee being played?
The match is being played at Al-Shabab Club Stadium.
What competition is Al Shabab vs Al Taee part of?
Al Shabab vs Al Taee is a Pro League fixture (matchday 10) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Shabab vs Al Taee?
Our statistical model gives Al Shabab a 56% chance of winning, Al Taee a 23% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Al Shabab the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Shabab vs Al Taee?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Al Shabab and Al Taee will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al Shabab vs Al Taee have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al Shabab's attack rating (1.05) and Al Taee's defence rating (1.28), the model arrives at 2.02 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al Taee's attack (0.82x) against Al Shabab's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from Al Shabab's last 39 games and Al Taee's last 39 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Shabab Win
56%
1.80
21%
4.67
23%
4.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
2 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
Al Shabab xG
Total xG
3.25
1.23
Al Taee xG
1.80
56%
Home win
4.67
21%
Draw
4.37
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
13%
7.55
Win to Nil
16%
6.14
3%
33.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.6 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al Shabab vs Al Taee Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Shabab vs Al Taee?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Al Shabab and Al Taee expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Al Shabab and 1.23 for Al Taee, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Shabab vs Al Taee?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 39 outings, Al Shabab have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 19W 8D 12L record — L-W-W-L-D across the most recent five.
Al Taee's form line: 12W 5D 22L from 39 games, 1.05 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-L.
Put side by side, Al Shabab are the form team by 0.62 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Taee.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al Shabab have posted 1.95 PPG from their last 19 home games (11W 4D 4L).
On the road, Al Taee have gone 2W 4D 13L from their last 19 away games — 0.53 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.05 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al Taee's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Shabab come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Shabab are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Al Taee are on 1.23 scored and 1.69 conceded.
Last 39 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Shabab
Blended
Al Taee
Blended
Al Shabab (Home) vs Al Taee (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al Shabab
Blended
Al Taee
Blended
❓ Al Shabab vs Al Taee Form FAQs
What form are Al Shabab and Al Taee in coming into this match?
Al Shabab have gone 19W 8D 12L in their last 39 games (1.67 PPG), while Al Taee have gone 12W 5D 22L in their last 39 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Shabab at home or Al Taee away?
Al Shabab's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Shabab at home: 1.95 PPG; Al Taee away: 0.53 PPG.
Have Al Shabab or Al Taee been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Shabab have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Al Taee in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent in our data was on 6 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Shabab won Al Shabab 4-0 Al Taee on 8 Sep 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Shabab have gone 3W 0D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Al Taee — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Al Shabab
2
Draws
0
Al Taee
Recent Meetings
❓ Al Shabab vs Al Taee H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al Taee?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Al Shabab have won 4, Al Taee have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Shabab and Al Taee last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 April 2024: Al Taee 0-0 Al Shabab.
Who has won more matches between Al Shabab and Al Taee?
Al Shabab have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Al Taee are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Shabab 42%, Al Taee 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Al Shabab) and 58% (Al Taee). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Shabab keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Al Taee in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Shabab home games / Al Taee away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al Shabab vs Al Taee Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al Shabab and Al Taee matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Al Shabab's recent matches and 53% of Al Taee's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Al Shabab and Al Taee matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Al Shabab's matches and 58% of Al Taee's.
Do Al Shabab and Al Taee matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Al Shabab's recent matches and 68% of Al Taee's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Shabab cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Al Taee.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Shabab beat Al Taee 2-0 at Al-Shabab Club Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Shabab 2.02 xG and Al Taee 1.23 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Al Taee landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Shabab attack 1.05 / defence 1.05 against Al Taee attack 0.82 / defence 1.28, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Shabab 56% | Draw 21% | Al Taee 23%, with Al Shabab to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Shabab 64%, Al Taee 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Shabab's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al Taee's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Shabab arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.05. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al Shabab (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.84 average — tighter than their form line. Al Taee (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.