Abha 2-1 Al Shabab – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Abha at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Abha vs Al Shabab fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Abha host Al Shabab at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 28 October 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Abha — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Abha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Abha's home record at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Abha are significantly better at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Shabab have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Shabab, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Shabab's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al Shabab — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.20 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Abha register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Al Shabab in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Abha, 2 for Al Shabab and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Feb 2023, ended 0–2 with Al Shabab winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Abha in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Al Shabab in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Abha 55% versus Al Shabab 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Abha 65% | Al Shabab 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Abha 1.45 xG and Al Shabab 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Abha attack 0.814 / defence 1.078 | Al Shabab attack 0.898 / defence 1.157. League average goals — home 1.535 / away 1.400. Data: 40 Abha games / 40 Al Shabab games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Abha 39% | Draw 25% | Al Shabab 35%. Fair-value odds: Abha 2.56 | Draw 4.00 | Al Shabab 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Abha are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al Shabab (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Abha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.80 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Abha 60% | Al Shabab 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Abha vs Al Shabab | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Oct 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Abha 39% | Draw 25% | Al Shabab 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Abha 1.45 / Al Shabab 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Abha attack 0.814 / def 1.078 | Al Shabab attack 0.898 / def 1.157 | league avg home 1.535 / away 1.400 • Poisson stance: Abha (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Abha xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Al Shabab xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Abha vs Al Shabab kick off?
Abha vs Al Shabab kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 28 October 2023 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Abha vs Al Shabab?
Abha 2 - 1 Al Shabab.
Where is Abha vs Al Shabab being played?
The match is being played at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Abha vs Al Shabab part of?
Abha vs Al Shabab is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Abha vs Al Shabab?
Our statistical model gives Abha a 39% chance of winning, Al Shabab a 35% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Abha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Abha vs Al Shabab?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Abha and Al Shabab will score (BTTS).
Will Abha vs Al Shabab have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Abha and Al Shabab?
Record (4 meetings): Abha 1W | Draws 1 | Al Shabab 2W.
What form are Abha and Al Shabab in?
Abha (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Al Shabab (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Abha's attack at 0.81x the league average against Al Shabab's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al Shabab's attack versus Abha's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Abha Win
39%
2.54
25%
3.96
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Abha xG
Total xG
2.80
1.35
Al Shabab xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
26%
3.88
24%
4.25
Win to Nil
10%
9.83
8%
12.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 8.2 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.9 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.6 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Abha vs Al Shabab?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Abha and Al Shabab expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Abha and 1.35 for Al Shabab, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Abha vs Al Shabab?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Abha come into this having played 40 games, going 12W 4D 24L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L. The sample for Abha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Shabab sit at 1.70 PPG from 40 outings (20W 8D 12L), a run that reads W-W-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Al Shabab is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Shabab carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.70 PPG clear of Abha — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Abha's home form reads 9W 3D 8L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Abha are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Al Shabab have taken 1.40 points per game from 20 outings (8W 4D 8L).
The Goals Picture
Abha are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Al Shabab are on 1.75 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Abha
Blended
Al Shabab
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Abha and Al Shabab in coming into this match?
Abha have gone 12W 4D 24L in their last 40 games (1.00 PPG), while Al Shabab have gone 20W 8D 12L in their last 40 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Abha at home or Al Shabab away?
Abha's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Abha at home: 1.50 PPG; Al Shabab away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Abha or Al Shabab been keeping clean sheets recently?
Abha have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their recent games, Al Shabab in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Abha and Al Shabab runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Apr 2024, when Al Shabab won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Abha's record when hosting Al Shabab specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Abha
1
Draws
3
Al Shabab
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Abha and Al Shabab?
From 6 meetings on record, Abha have won 2, Al Shabab have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Abha and Al Shabab last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2024, when Al Shabab 5-0 Abha.
Who has won more matches between Abha and Al Shabab?
Al Shabab have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Abha see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Abha at 65%, Al Shabab at 70%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Abha and 70% for Al Shabab. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Abha home games / Al Shabab away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Abha play Al Shabab?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Abha's games and 70% of Al Shabab's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Abha vs Al Shabab usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Abha's matches and 70% of Al Shabab's.
Do Abha and Al Shabab tend to score early?
Abha have had a goal before half-time in 55% of their recent matches, Al Shabab in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Abha edge out Al Shabab 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Abha beat Al Shabab 2-1 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Abha 1.45 xG and Al Shabab 1.35 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Abha attack 0.81 / defence 1.08 against Al Shabab attack 0.90 / defence 1.16, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Abha 39% | Draw 25% | Al Shabab 35%, with Abha to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Abha 65%, Al Shabab 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Abha's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Al Shabab's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Shabab arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Abha winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.