Al Riyadh 2-1 Al-Qadisiyah FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Riyadh at 42%, yet in-form Al-Qadisiyah FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Al Riyadh vs Al-Qadisiyah FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Qadisiyah FC make the trip to Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium to face Al Riyadh in Pro League, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Friday 4 October 2024 at 16:15 UTC.
Form
Al Riyadh (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al Riyadh have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Riyadh at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's overall Pro League record this term: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.20 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets from 5 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Al-Qadisiyah FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Al-Qadisiyah FC are 0.60 PPG clear of Al Riyadh in recent Pro League fixtures (2.00 vs 1.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading & In-Play
Al Riyadh — key trading statistics (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Al-Qadisiyah FC — key trading statistics (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games; they keep a clean sheet 80% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Al Riyadh 60% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 0%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Riyadh 80% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 20%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Riyadh 1.20 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Riyadh attack 0.985 / defence 1.099 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.693 / defence 0.853. League average goals — home 1.432 / away 1.261. Data: 39 Al Riyadh games / 5 Al-Qadisiyah FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Riyadh 42% | Draw 29% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 29%. Fair-value odds: Al Riyadh 2.38 | Draw 3.45 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al Riyadh as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al-Qadisiyah FC (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Riyadh if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.16 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Riyadh 70% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 0% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Riyadh vs Al-Qadisiyah FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 4 Oct 2024, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Riyadh 42% | Draw 29% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 43% | xG Al Riyadh 1.20 / Al-Qadisiyah FC 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Al Riyadh attack 0.985 / def 1.099 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.693 / def 0.853 | league avg home 1.432 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: Al Riyadh (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Al Riyadh xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Riyadh vs Al-Qadisiyah FC kick off?
Al Riyadh vs Al-Qadisiyah FC kicked off at 16:15 on Friday 4 October 2024 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Riyadh vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Al Riyadh 2 - 1 Al-Qadisiyah FC.
Where is Al Riyadh vs Al-Qadisiyah FC being played?
The match is being played at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Riyadh vs Al-Qadisiyah FC part of?
Al Riyadh vs Al-Qadisiyah FC is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Riyadh vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Riyadh a 42% chance of winning, Al-Qadisiyah FC a 29% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Al Riyadh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Riyadh vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Al Riyadh and Al-Qadisiyah FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Riyadh vs Al-Qadisiyah FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Riyadh and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Riyadh and Al-Qadisiyah FC in?
Al Riyadh (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Al-Qadisiyah FC (all comps): 3W-1D-1L in 5 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.20 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
What do the betting odds say about Al Riyadh vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al Riyadh's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Al-Qadisiyah FC's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. Flip it around — Al-Qadisiyah FC's attack (0.69x) against Al Riyadh's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 39/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 1-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Riyadh Win
42%
2.41
29%
3.43
29%
3.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Al Riyadh xG
Total xG
2.16
0.96
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
2.41
42%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
3.41
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
30%
3.33
Win to Nil
16%
6.29
9%
11.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 11.0 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.3 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.0 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Riyadh vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Al Riyadh and Al-Qadisiyah FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Al Riyadh and 0.96 for Al-Qadisiyah FC, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Riyadh vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al Riyadh come into this having played 5 games, going 2W 1D 2L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Al Riyadh, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al-Qadisiyah FC sit at 2.00 PPG from 5 outings (3W 1D 1L), a run that reads W-W-L-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Qadisiyah FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.60 PPG clear of Al Riyadh — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Attack vs Defence
Al Riyadh are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Al-Qadisiyah FC are on 1.00 scored and 0.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Riyadh have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Al-Qadisiyah FC in 0%.
Defensively: Al-Qadisiyah FC in 80% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Riyadh
Early Season
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Riyadh and Al-Qadisiyah FC in coming into this match?
Al Riyadh have gone 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 games (1.40 PPG), while Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 3W 1D 1L in their last 5 (2.00 PPG).
Have Al Riyadh or Al-Qadisiyah FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Riyadh have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Al-Qadisiyah FC in 80%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 29 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Qadisiyah FC have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Qadisiyah FC won 4-0 on 4 Jan 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Riyadh have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al-Qadisiyah FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Al Riyadh
0
Draws
3
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Riyadh and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Al Riyadh have won 1, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Riyadh and Al-Qadisiyah FC last play each other?
They last met on 29 April 2026, when Al Riyadh 0-4 Al-Qadisiyah FC.
Who has won more matches between Al Riyadh and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Riyadh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Al-Qadisiyah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 60% (Al Riyadh) and 0% (Al-Qadisiyah FC) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 80% (Al Riyadh) and 20% (Al-Qadisiyah FC).
On the defensive side: Al-Qadisiyah FC in 80%; Al Riyadh have failed to score in 40% of games; Al-Qadisiyah FC in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Riyadh home games / Al-Qadisiyah FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Riyadh play Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Al Riyadh's recent matches and 0% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Riyadh vs Al-Qadisiyah FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 80% of Al Riyadh's recent games and 20% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Riyadh and Al-Qadisiyah FC tend to score early?
Al Riyadh have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Al-Qadisiyah FC in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Riyadh edge out Al-Qadisiyah FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Riyadh beat Al-Qadisiyah FC 2-1 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Riyadh 1.20 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 0.96 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Riyadh attack 0.98 / defence 1.10 against Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.69 / defence 0.85, drawn from 39/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Riyadh 42% | Draw 29% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 29%, with Al Riyadh to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Riyadh 80%, Al-Qadisiyah FC 20%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 30%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Riyadh's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 80% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Qadisiyah FC arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.40. Form was overturned, with Al Riyadh winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al Riyadh conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Qadisiyah FC shipped 2 against a 0.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.