Al-Qadisiyah FC 3-1 Al Orubah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 72% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Orubah encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al Orubah make the trip to Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium to face Al-Qadisiyah FC in Pro League, Regular Season - 33. The match kicks off on Tuesday 20 May 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Al-Qadisiyah FC (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's home record at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Pro League appearances (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al Orubah have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season.
Al Orubah's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form ledger tips toward Al-Qadisiyah FC. A 1.10 PPG lead over Al Orubah (1.80 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Al-Qadisiyah FC, 0 for Al Orubah and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Jan 2025, ended 2–0 with Al-Qadisiyah FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Al-Qadisiyah FC half-time and goal-timing data (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Al Orubah half-time and goal-timing data (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Qadisiyah FC 47% versus Al Orubah 34%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Qadisiyah FC 47% | Al Orubah 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.40 xG and Al Orubah 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.128 / defence 0.762 | Al Orubah attack 0.755 / defence 1.376. League average goals — home 1.550 / away 1.451. Al Orubah bring a strong defensive rating of 1.376 — this is suppressing Al-Qadisiyah FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence rating of 0.762 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 32 Al-Qadisiyah FC games / 32 Al Orubah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 72% | Draw 17% | Al Orubah 11%. Fair-value odds: Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.39 | Draw 5.88 | Al Orubah 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Al-Qadisiyah FC (72%) — a 61pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Qadisiyah FC at 72% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.24 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Al-Qadisiyah FC 60% | Al Orubah 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Orubah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 20 May 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 72% | Draw 17% | Al Orubah 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 52% | xG Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.40 / Al Orubah 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.128 / def 0.762 | Al Orubah attack 0.755 / def 1.376 | league avg home 1.550 / away 1.451 • Poisson stance: Al-Qadisiyah FC (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.40
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Al Orubah xG
52%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Orubah kick off?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Orubah kicked off at 17:00 on Tuesday 20 May 2025 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Orubah?
Al-Qadisiyah FC 3 - 1 Al Orubah.
Where is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Orubah being played?
The match is being played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Orubah part of?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Orubah is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Orubah?
Our statistical model gives Al-Qadisiyah FC a 72% chance of winning, Al Orubah a 11% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Al-Qadisiyah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Orubah?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Orubah will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Orubah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Orubah?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Qadisiyah FC 1W | Draws 0 | Al Orubah 0W.
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Orubah in?
Al-Qadisiyah FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Al Orubah (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al-Qadisiyah FC's attack rating (1.13) and Al Orubah's defence rating (1.38), the model arrives at 2.40 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al Orubah's attack (0.76x) against Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 3-0 (9.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Qadisiyah FC Win
72%
1.39
17%
5.97
11%
8.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.40
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Total xG
3.24
0.83
Al Orubah xG
1.39
72%
Home win
5.97
17%
Draw
8.96
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
43%
2.30
9%
11.08
Win to Nil
31%
3.20
1%
99.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.4 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.5 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.1 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.5 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Orubah?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Orubah expected to score?
The model projects 2.40 expected goals for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 0.83 for Al Orubah, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Orubah?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Qadisiyah FC come into this having played 32 games, going 20W 5D 7L for 2.03 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-W.
On the other side, Al Orubah sit at 0.94 PPG from 32 outings (9W 3D 20L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-L across their last five.
Al-Qadisiyah FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.09 PPG clear of Al Orubah — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Al-Qadisiyah FC's home form reads 12W 2D 2L across 16 games on their own ground, a 2.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Orubah have taken 0.88 points per game from 16 outings (4W 2D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Qadisiyah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Qadisiyah FC are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Al Orubah are on 0.91 scored and 2.09 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Qadisiyah FC have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Current Season
Al Orubah
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Orubah in coming into this match?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 20W 5D 7L in their last 32 games (2.03 PPG), while Al Orubah have gone 9W 3D 20L in their last 32 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home or Al Orubah away?
Al-Qadisiyah FC's home record (2.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home: 2.38 PPG; Al Orubah away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Al-Qadisiyah FC or Al Orubah been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Al Orubah in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since January 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Al-Qadisiyah FC
0
Draws
0
Al Orubah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Orubah?
From 2 meetings on record, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 2, Al Orubah have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Orubah last play each other?
They last met on 20 May 2025, when Al-Qadisiyah FC 3-1 Al Orubah.
Who has won more matches between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Orubah?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Qadisiyah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time.
Al Orubah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Qadisiyah FC 44%, Al Orubah 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Al-Qadisiyah FC) and 69% (Al Orubah). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 12% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Qadisiyah FC keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Al Orubah in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Qadisiyah FC home games / Al Orubah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Qadisiyah FC play Al Orubah?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's recent matches and 38% of Al Orubah's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Orubah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's matches and 69% of Al Orubah's.
Do Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Orubah tend to score early?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Al Orubah in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Qadisiyah FC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Al Orubah.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Qadisiyah FC beat Al Orubah 3-1 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.40 xG and Al Orubah 0.83 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.13 / defence 0.76 against Al Orubah attack 0.76 / defence 1.38, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Qadisiyah FC 72% | Draw 17% | Al Orubah 11%, with Al-Qadisiyah FC to win its most likely call at 72%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Qadisiyah FC 47%, Al Orubah 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Orubah's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Qadisiyah FC arrived the stronger side — 2.03 PPG against 0.94. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Qadisiyah FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.69 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.