Al-Qadisiyah FC 3-0 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Fateh at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fateh fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium plays host to Al-Qadisiyah FC versus Al-Fateh in Pro League, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Friday 23 August 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Fateh (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: D D L W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Al-Fateh haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Al-Fateh's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.46 xG and Al-Fateh 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Al-Fateh attack 1.054 / defence 1.128. League average goals — home 1.522 / away 1.320. Data: 0 Al-Qadisiyah FC games / 34 Al-Fateh games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 34% | Draw 26% | Al-Fateh 40%. Fair-value odds: Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.94 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Fateh 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.46 / 1.60) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Fateh at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Fateh if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.06 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 23 Aug 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 34% | Draw 26% | Al-Fateh 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 62% | xG Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.46 / Al-Fateh 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Al-Fateh attack 1.054 / def 1.128 | league avg home 1.522 / away 1.320 • Poisson stance: Al-Fateh (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Al-Fateh xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fateh kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 23 August 2024 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fateh?
Al-Qadisiyah FC 3 - 0 Al-Fateh.
Where is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fateh part of?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fateh is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Al-Qadisiyah FC a 34% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 40% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al-Fateh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Fateh will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Fateh?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Fateh in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Al-Fateh (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al-Qadisiyah FC's attack at 0.85x the league average against Al-Fateh's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Fateh's attack (1.05x) against Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.60.
These ratings are built from 0/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fateh Win
34%
2.94
26%
3.87
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Total xG
3.06
1.60
Al-Fateh xG
2.94
34%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
20%
4.95
23%
4.31
Win to Nil
7%
14.55
9%
10.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 7.5 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.0 | 8.8 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.0 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.9 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 1.60 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fateh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Pre-Season
Al-Fateh
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Qadisiyah FC won 3-0 on 23 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al-Fateh — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Al-Qadisiyah FC
2
Draws
0
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Fateh?
From 4 meetings on record, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 2, Al-Fateh have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Fateh last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Al-Qadisiyah FC 1-1 Al-Fateh.
Who has won more matches between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Fateh?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Qadisiyah FC home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Al-Qadisiyah FC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Al-Fateh.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Qadisiyah FC beat Al-Fateh 3-0 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.46 xG and Al-Fateh 1.60 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Al-Qadisiyah FC beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Fateh landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Al-Fateh attack 1.05 / defence 1.13, drawn from 0/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Qadisiyah FC 34% | Draw 26% | Al-Fateh 40%, with Al-Fateh to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Al-Qadisiyah FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.