Al Orubah 0-1 Al Riyadh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Riyadh at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Orubah vs Al Riyadh fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Al-Jouf University Stadium plays host to Al Orubah versus Al Riyadh in Pro League, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Friday 6 December 2024 at 14:55 UTC.
Form
Al Orubah (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Al Orubah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Orubah at Al-Jouf University Stadium this season: 2W 0D 2L from 4 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Al-Jouf University Stadium.
Al Riyadh's overall Pro League record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L D L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al Riyadh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Riyadh's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Al Orubah, 1.40 for Al Riyadh — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Al Orubah goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (12 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Al Riyadh goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (12 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Orubah 33% versus Al Riyadh 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Orubah 58% | Al Riyadh 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Orubah 0.91 xG and Al Riyadh 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Orubah attack 0.653 / defence 1.127 | Al Riyadh attack 1.043 / defence 1.025. League average goals — home 1.363 / away 1.293. Al Orubah's attack strength of 0.653 is below the league average — the 0.91 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 12 Al Orubah games / 46 Al Riyadh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Orubah 23% | Draw 26% | Al Riyadh 51%. Fair-value odds: Al Orubah 4.35 | Draw 3.85 | Al Riyadh 1.96. Al Riyadh hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al Riyadh as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Riyadh if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.43 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Al Orubah 0% | Al Riyadh 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Orubah vs Al Riyadh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Al-Jouf University Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 6 Dec 2024, 14:55 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Orubah 23% | Draw 26% | Al Riyadh 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 47% | xG Al Orubah 0.91 / Al Riyadh 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Al Orubah attack 0.653 / def 1.127 | Al Riyadh attack 1.043 / def 1.025 | league avg home 1.363 / away 1.293 • Poisson stance: Al Riyadh (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Al Orubah xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Al Riyadh xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Orubah vs Al Riyadh kick off?
Al Orubah vs Al Riyadh kicked off at 14:55 on Friday 6 December 2024 at Al-Jouf University Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Orubah vs Al Riyadh?
Al Orubah 0 - 1 Al Riyadh.
Where is Al Orubah vs Al Riyadh being played?
The match is being played at Al-Jouf University Stadium.
What competition is Al Orubah vs Al Riyadh part of?
Al Orubah vs Al Riyadh is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Orubah vs Al Riyadh?
Our statistical model gives Al Orubah a 23% chance of winning, Al Riyadh a 51% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al Riyadh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Orubah vs Al Riyadh?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Al Orubah and Al Riyadh will score (BTTS).
Will Al Orubah vs Al Riyadh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Orubah and Al Riyadh?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Orubah and Al Riyadh in?
Al Orubah (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Al Riyadh (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al Orubah's attack at 0.65x the league average against Al Riyadh's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 0.91 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al Riyadh's attack (1.04x) against Al Orubah's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.52.
These ratings are built from 12/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.8%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Riyadh Win
23%
4.41
26%
3.86
51%
1.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
0 – 2
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Al Orubah xG
Total xG
2.43
1.52
Al Riyadh xG
4.41
23%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
1.94
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
22%
4.57
40%
2.49
Win to Nil
5%
20.16
21%
4.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 13.3 | 10.1 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.2 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 5.6 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Orubah vs Al Riyadh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Al Orubah and Al Riyadh expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Al Orubah and 1.52 for Al Riyadh, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Orubah vs Al Riyadh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al Orubah's recent record stands at 4W 1D 7L from 12 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Al Orubah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Riyadh, meanwhile, have gone 5W 3D 4L across 12 games — 1.50 PPG, with L-D-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Al Riyadh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al Riyadh by 0.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Orubah heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Al Orubah have managed 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.08 PPG overall — Al Orubah are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Al Riyadh's away record stands at 2W 1D 1L across 4 trips, a 1.75 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Al Orubah are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Al Riyadh are on 1.25 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 12 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Orubah
Blended
Al Riyadh
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Orubah and Al Riyadh in coming into this match?
Al Orubah have gone 4W 1D 7L in their last 12 games (1.08 PPG), while Al Riyadh have gone 5W 3D 4L in their last 12 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Orubah at home or Al Riyadh away?
Al Riyadh's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Orubah at home: 1.50 PPG; Al Riyadh away: 1.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Al Orubah
0
Draws
1
Al Riyadh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Orubah and Al Riyadh?
From 2 meetings on record, Al Orubah have won 1, Al Riyadh have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Orubah and Al Riyadh last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2025, when Al Riyadh 2-4 Al Orubah.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Orubah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Al Riyadh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 0% (Al Orubah) and 50% (Al Riyadh) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Al Orubah) and 50% (Al Riyadh).
On the defensive side: Al Orubah keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Al Orubah have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Orubah home games / Al Riyadh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Orubah play Al Riyadh?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Al Orubah's recent matches and 50% of Al Riyadh's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Orubah vs Al Riyadh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Al Orubah's recent games and 50% of Al Riyadh's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Orubah and Al Riyadh tend to score early?
Al Orubah have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Al Riyadh in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Riyadh edge out Al Orubah 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Riyadh beat Al Orubah 0-1 at Al-Jouf University Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Orubah 0.91 xG and Al Riyadh 1.52 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al Orubah fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Orubah attack 0.65 / defence 1.13 against Al Riyadh attack 1.04 / defence 1.02, drawn from 12/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Orubah 23% | Draw 26% | Al Riyadh 51%, with Al Riyadh to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Orubah 58%, Al Riyadh 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Orubah's trading profile (12 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al Riyadh's trading profile (12 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Riyadh arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.08. That form edge translated into the three points. Al Riyadh (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.