Al Orubah 0-2 Al-Ahli Jeddah – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 68% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Orubah vs Al-Ahli Jeddah encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Al-Jouf University Stadium plays host to Al Orubah versus Al-Ahli Jeddah in Pro League, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Thursday 30 January 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Al Orubah's overall Pro League record this term: 1W 1D 8L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.20 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Al Orubah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Orubah's home record at Al-Jouf University Stadium: 2W 0D 5L from 7 Pro League appearances (0.86 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.29 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game.
Al-Ahli Jeddah (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W L W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ahli Jeddah away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the stronger side — 1.80 PPG clear of the hosts (2.20 vs 0.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Al Orubah have seen both teams score in just 0% of their matches, Al-Ahli Jeddah in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al Orubah lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2024, ended 0–2 with Al-Ahli Jeddah winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Al Orubah half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 59% of games.
Al-Ahli Jeddah half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Al Orubah 24% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 41%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Orubah 53% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Orubah 0.57 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Orubah attack 0.464 / defence 1.357 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.969 / defence 0.824. League average goals — home 1.483 / away 1.386. Al Orubah's attack strength of 0.464 is below the league average — the 0.57 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 17 Al Orubah games / 51 Al-Ahli Jeddah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Orubah 11% | Draw 21% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 68%. Fair-value odds: Al Orubah 9.09 | Draw 4.76 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.47. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ahli Jeddah (68%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ahli Jeddah at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 36% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Orubah 0% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Orubah vs Al-Ahli Jeddah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Al-Jouf University Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 30 Jan 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Orubah 11% | Draw 21% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 68% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 36% | xG Al Orubah 0.57 / Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.82 • Poisson strength factors: Al Orubah attack 0.464 / def 1.357 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.969 / def 0.824 | league avg home 1.483 / away 1.386 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.57
Al Orubah xG
Expected Goals
1.82
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
36%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Orubah vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kick off?
Al Orubah vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kicked off at 14:00 on Thursday 30 January 2025 at Al-Jouf University Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Orubah vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al Orubah 0 - 2 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Where is Al Orubah vs Al-Ahli Jeddah being played?
The match is being played at Al-Jouf University Stadium.
What competition is Al Orubah vs Al-Ahli Jeddah part of?
Al Orubah vs Al-Ahli Jeddah is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Orubah vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our statistical model gives Al Orubah a 11% chance of winning, Al-Ahli Jeddah a 68% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Orubah vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Al Orubah and Al-Ahli Jeddah will score (BTTS).
Will Al Orubah vs Al-Ahli Jeddah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Orubah and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Record (1 meetings): Al Orubah 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 1W.
What form are Al Orubah and Al-Ahli Jeddah in?
Al Orubah (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.20 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al Orubah's attacking strength (0.46x league average) is weighed against Al-Ahli Jeddah's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.57. Flip it around — Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack (0.97x) against Al Orubah's defence (1.36x) — and the away total comes out at 1.82.
These ratings are built from 17/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 15.5%. Close behind: 0-2 (15.2%), 1-1 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
11%
9.22
21%
4.68
68%
1.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
15.2%
Away win
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.57
Al Orubah xG
Total xG
2.39
1.82
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
9.22
11%
Home win
4.68
21%
Draw
1.48
68%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.75
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
16%
6.19
57%
1.76
Win to Nil
2%
57.05
38%
2.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 16.7 | 15.2 | 9.3 | 4.2 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 9.5 | 8.6 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 1.5 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Orubah vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Al Orubah and Al-Ahli Jeddah expected to score?
The model projects 0.57 expected goals for Al Orubah and 1.82 for Al-Ahli Jeddah, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Orubah vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al Orubah's recent record stands at 4W 2D 11L from 17 games, a 0.82 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Al Orubah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ahli Jeddah, meanwhile, have gone 10W 2D 5L across 17 games — 1.88 PPG, with W-W-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Al-Ahli Jeddah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Ahli Jeddah by 1.06 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Orubah heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Al Orubah have managed 2W 0D 5L from 7 games — 0.86 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's away record stands at 4W 0D 3L across 7 trips, a 1.71 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ahli Jeddah come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Orubah are averaging 0.65 goals scored and 2.06 conceded per game recently; Al-Ahli Jeddah are on 1.76 scored and 0.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Orubah have seen both teams score in 24% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Orubah
Blended
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Orubah and Al-Ahli Jeddah in coming into this match?
Al Orubah have gone 4W 2D 11L in their last 17 games (0.82 PPG), while Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 10W 2D 5L in their last 17 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Orubah at home or Al-Ahli Jeddah away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's away record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Orubah at home: 0.86 PPG; Al-Ahli Jeddah away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Al Orubah or Al-Ahli Jeddah been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Orubah have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since August 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Al Orubah
0
Draws
2
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Orubah and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
From 2 meetings on record, Al Orubah have won 0, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Orubah and Al-Ahli Jeddah last play each other?
They last met on 30 January 2025, when Al Orubah 0-2 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Who has won more matches between Al Orubah and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Orubah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 0% (Al Orubah) and 29% (Al-Ahli Jeddah) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Al Orubah) and 43% (Al-Ahli Jeddah).
On the defensive side: Al Orubah have failed to score in 71% of games; Al-Ahli Jeddah in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Orubah home games / Al-Ahli Jeddah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Orubah play Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Al Orubah's recent matches and 29% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Orubah vs Al-Ahli Jeddah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Al Orubah's recent games and 43% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Orubah and Al-Ahli Jeddah tend to score early?
Al Orubah have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Ahli Jeddah cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Al Orubah.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Al Orubah 0-2 at Al-Jouf University Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Orubah 0.57 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.82 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Orubah attack 0.46 / defence 1.36 against Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.97 / defence 0.82, drawn from 17/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Orubah 11% | Draw 21% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 68%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 68%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Orubah 53%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 32%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Orubah's trading profile (17 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 24% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 59% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (17 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ahli Jeddah arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 0.82. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.