Al Okhdood 0-0 Al-Qadisiyah FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Okhdood at 37%, yet in-form Al-Qadisiyah FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Al Okhdood vs Al-Qadisiyah FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al Okhdood and Al-Qadisiyah FC meet at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 19 September 2024 at 16:40 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al Okhdood have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Al Okhdood have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Okhdood have posted 4W 1D 5L at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's overall Pro League record this term: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.33 per game is modest, conceding 0.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 3 games (67%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Al-Qadisiyah FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On a straight form reading, Al-Qadisiyah FC are the stronger side — 1.10 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading
Al Okhdood half-time and goal-timing data (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
Al-Qadisiyah FC half-time and goal-timing data (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Al Okhdood 33% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 0%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Okhdood 67% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Okhdood 1.30 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Okhdood attack 0.906 / defence 1.120 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.838 / defence 0.967. League average goals — home 1.481 / away 1.359. Data: 37 Al Okhdood games / 3 Al-Qadisiyah FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Al Okhdood 37% | Draw 27% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 36%. Fair-value odds: Al Okhdood 2.70 | Draw 3.70 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al Okhdood as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al-Qadisiyah FC (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Okhdood if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.57 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Al Okhdood 60% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 0% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Okhdood vs Al-Qadisiyah FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 19 Sep 2024, 16:40 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Okhdood 37% | Draw 27% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Al Okhdood 1.30 / Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Al Okhdood attack 0.906 / def 1.120 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.838 / def 0.967 | league avg home 1.481 / away 1.359 • Poisson stance: Al Okhdood (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Al Okhdood xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Okhdood vs Al-Qadisiyah FC kick off?
Al Okhdood vs Al-Qadisiyah FC kicked off at 16:40 on Thursday 19 September 2024 at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Okhdood vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Al Okhdood 0 - 0 Al-Qadisiyah FC.
Where is Al Okhdood vs Al-Qadisiyah FC being played?
The match is being played at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al Okhdood vs Al-Qadisiyah FC part of?
Al Okhdood vs Al-Qadisiyah FC is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Okhdood vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Okhdood a 37% chance of winning, Al-Qadisiyah FC a 36% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al Okhdood the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Okhdood vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Al Okhdood and Al-Qadisiyah FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Okhdood vs Al-Qadisiyah FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Okhdood and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Okhdood and Al-Qadisiyah FC in?
Al Okhdood (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Al-Qadisiyah FC (all comps): 2W-0D-1L in 3 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 0.33 | L5 W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al Okhdood's attack at 0.91x the league average against Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Qadisiyah FC's attack (0.84x) against Al Okhdood's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
The sample (37/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Okhdood Win
37%
2.69
27%
3.77
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Al Okhdood xG
Total xG
2.57
1.28
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
2.69
37%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
28%
3.58
27%
3.66
Win to Nil
10%
9.62
10%
10.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 9.7 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.6 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.2 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Okhdood vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Al Okhdood and Al-Qadisiyah FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Al Okhdood and 1.28 for Al-Qadisiyah FC, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Okhdood vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al Okhdood come into this having played 3 games, going 0W 0D 3L for 0.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Al Okhdood, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al-Qadisiyah FC sit at 2.00 PPG from 3 outings (2W 0D 1L), a run that reads W-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Qadisiyah FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 2.00 PPG clear of Al Okhdood — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Okhdood are averaging 0.33 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game recently; Al-Qadisiyah FC are on 1.33 scored and 0.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Qadisiyah FC in 0%.
Defensively: Al-Qadisiyah FC in 67% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 3 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Okhdood
Early Season
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Okhdood and Al-Qadisiyah FC in coming into this match?
Al Okhdood have gone 0W 0D 3L in their last 3 games (0.00 PPG), while Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 2W 0D 1L in their last 3 (2.00 PPG).
Have Al Okhdood or Al-Qadisiyah FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Okhdood have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Al-Qadisiyah FC in 67%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Okhdood have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al-Qadisiyah FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Al Okhdood
2
Draws
2
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Okhdood and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Al Okhdood have won 0, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Okhdood and Al-Qadisiyah FC last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when Al Okhdood 2-4 Al-Qadisiyah FC.
Who has won more matches between Al Okhdood and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Okhdood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Al-Qadisiyah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (Al Okhdood) and 0% (Al-Qadisiyah FC) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Al Okhdood) and 33% (Al-Qadisiyah FC).
On the defensive side: Al-Qadisiyah FC in 67%; Al Okhdood have failed to score in 67% of games; Al-Qadisiyah FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Okhdood home games / Al-Qadisiyah FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Okhdood play Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Al Okhdood's recent matches and 0% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Okhdood vs Al-Qadisiyah FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Al Okhdood's recent games and 33% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Okhdood and Al-Qadisiyah FC tend to score early?
Al Okhdood have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al-Qadisiyah FC in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Al Okhdood's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Okhdood and Al-Qadisiyah FC finished level at 0-0 at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Okhdood 1.30 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.28 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al Okhdood fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Al-Qadisiyah FC landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Okhdood attack 0.91 / defence 1.12 against Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.84 / defence 0.97, drawn from 37/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al Okhdood 37% | Draw 27% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 36%, with Al Okhdood to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Okhdood 67%, Al-Qadisiyah FC 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 17%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Okhdood's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 67% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Qadisiyah FC arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al Okhdood conceded 0 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Qadisiyah FC managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.