Al Shabab 1-0 Al Taawon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Shabab at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Shabab vs Al Taawon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al Shabab and Al Taawon meet at Al-Shabab Club Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 21 September 2024 at 16:30 UTC.
Form
Al Shabab (all games): 6W 0D 4L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Al Shabab have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Shabab have posted 5W 0D 5L at Al-Shabab Club Stadium — 1.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Al Taawon's overall Pro League record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: D W W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Al Taawon have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Taawon's away record: 3W 6D 1L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Al Shabab, 3 for Al Taawon and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 May 2024, ended 0–1 with Al Taawon winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Al Shabab — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Al Taawon — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Shabab 43% versus Al Taawon 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Shabab 43% | Al Taawon 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Shabab 1.27 xG and Al Taawon 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Shabab attack 1.017 / defence 0.968 | Al Taawon attack 0.915 / defence 0.902. League average goals — home 1.384 / away 1.311. Data: 37 Al Shabab games / 37 Al Taawon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Shabab 39% | Draw 27% | Al Taawon 34%. Fair-value odds: Al Shabab 2.56 | Draw 3.70 | Al Taawon 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al Shabab as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Shabab if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.43 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Al Shabab 50% | Al Taawon 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Shabab vs Al Taawon | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Al-Shabab Club Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Sep 2024, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Shabab 39% | Draw 27% | Al Taawon 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Al Shabab 1.27 / Al Taawon 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Al Shabab attack 1.017 / def 0.968 | Al Taawon attack 0.915 / def 0.902 | league avg home 1.384 / away 1.311 • Poisson stance: Al Shabab (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Al Shabab xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Al Taawon xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Shabab vs Al Taawon kick off?
Al Shabab vs Al Taawon kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 21 September 2024 at Al-Shabab Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Shabab vs Al Taawon?
Al Shabab 1 - 0 Al Taawon.
Where is Al Shabab vs Al Taawon being played?
The match is being played at Al-Shabab Club Stadium.
What competition is Al Shabab vs Al Taawon part of?
Al Shabab vs Al Taawon is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Shabab vs Al Taawon?
Our statistical model gives Al Shabab a 39% chance of winning, Al Taawon a 34% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al Shabab the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Shabab vs Al Taawon?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Al Shabab and Al Taawon will score (BTTS).
Will Al Shabab vs Al Taawon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al Taawon?
Record (6 meetings): Al Shabab 1W | Draws 2 | Al Taawon 3W.
What form are Al Shabab and Al Taawon in?
Al Shabab (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Al Taawon (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al Shabab's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Al Taawon's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. Flip it around — Al Taawon's attack (0.92x) against Al Shabab's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Shabab Win
39%
2.57
27%
3.65
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Al Shabab xG
Total xG
2.43
1.16
Al Taawon xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
28%
3.56
Win to Nil
12%
8.22
9%
10.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 10.2 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.0 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.2 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Shabab vs Al Taawon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Al Shabab and Al Taawon expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Al Shabab and 1.16 for Al Taawon, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Shabab vs Al Taawon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 37 outings, Al Shabab have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 14W 8D 15L record — L-W-L-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al Shabab, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Taawon's form line: 18W 11D 8L from 37 games, 1.76 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Al Taawon, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Al Taawon are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Shabab.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Al Shabab have posted 1.50 PPG from 18 outings (8W 3D 7L).
On the road, Al Taawon have gone 7W 8D 3L from 18 away games — 1.61 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Al Shabab are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Al Taawon are on 1.49 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Al Shabab have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games; Al Taawon in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Shabab
Early Season
Al Taawon
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Shabab and Al Taawon in coming into this match?
Al Shabab have gone 14W 8D 15L in their last 37 games (1.35 PPG), while Al Taawon have gone 18W 11D 8L in their last 37 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Shabab at home or Al Taawon away?
Al Taawon's away record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Shabab at home: 1.50 PPG; Al Taawon away: 1.61 PPG.
Have Al Shabab or Al Taawon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Shabab have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Al Taawon in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Al Taawon have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Taawon won 1-5 on 3 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Shabab have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al Taawon — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Al Shabab
3
Draws
5
Al Taawon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al Taawon?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Shabab have won 2, Al Taawon have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al Shabab and Al Taawon last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Al Shabab 1-5 Al Taawon.
Who has won more matches between Al Shabab and Al Taawon?
Al Taawon have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Al Taawon see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Shabab 56%, Al Taawon 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Al Shabab) and 33% (Al Taawon).
On the defensive side: Al Shabab keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Al Taawon in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Shabab home games / Al Taawon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Shabab play Al Taawon?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Al Shabab's games and 56% of Al Taawon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Shabab vs Al Taawon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Al Shabab's recent games and 33% of Al Taawon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Shabab and Al Taawon tend to score early?
Al Shabab have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Al Taawon in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Shabab edge out Al Taawon 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Shabab beat Al Taawon 1-0 at Al-Shabab Club Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Shabab 1.27 xG and Al Taawon 1.16 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al Taawon landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Shabab attack 1.02 / defence 0.97 against Al Taawon attack 0.92 / defence 0.90, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Shabab 39% | Draw 27% | Al Taawon 34%, with Al Shabab to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Shabab 43%, Al Taawon 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Shabab's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al Taawon's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Taawon arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.35. Form was overturned, with Al Shabab winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al Shabab (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line. Al Taawon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.