Al-Nassr 2-0 Al-Ittihad FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Nassr at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Nassr vs Al-Ittihad FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 21 as Al-Nassr welcome Al-Ittihad FC to King Saud University Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 6 February 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Nassr — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Nassr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Nassr's home record at King Saud University Stadium: 9W 0D 1L from 10 Pro League appearances (2.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Al-Nassr are significantly better at King Saud University Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ittihad FC stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ittihad FC away from home this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.90 PPG (Al-Nassr) versus 2.00 (Al-Ittihad FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Nassr register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Al-Ittihad FC in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 8 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Al-Nassr, 4 for Al-Ittihad FC and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.4 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Sep 2025, ended 2–0 with Al-Nassr winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Al-Nassr in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Al-Ittihad FC in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Nassr 68% and Al-Ittihad FC 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Nassr 72% | Al-Ittihad FC 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Nassr 2.06 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Nassr attack 1.420 / defence 0.855 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.354 / defence 0.991. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.358. Al-Nassr carry an above-average attack strength of 1.420 — their λ of 2.06 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Ittihad FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.354 — the away xG of 1.57 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 53 Al-Nassr games / 53 Al-Ittihad FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Nassr 49% | Draw 22% | Al-Ittihad FC 29%. Fair-value odds: Al-Nassr 2.04 | Draw 4.55 | Al-Ittihad FC 3.45. Al-Nassr hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.63. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.63 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (2.06 / 1.57) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Nassr as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Nassr offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.63 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Nassr 60% | Al-Ittihad FC 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Nassr vs Al-Ittihad FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: King Saud University Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 6 Feb 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Nassr 49% | Draw 22% | Al-Ittihad FC 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 69% | xG Al-Nassr 2.06 / Al-Ittihad FC 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Nassr attack 1.420 / def 0.855 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.354 / def 0.991 | league avg home 1.461 / away 1.358 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.06
Al-Nassr xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Al-Ittihad FC xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Nassr vs Al-Ittihad FC kick off?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Ittihad FC kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 6 February 2026 at King Saud University Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Nassr 2 - 0 Al-Ittihad FC.
Where is Al-Nassr vs Al-Ittihad FC being played?
The match is being played at King Saud University Stadium.
What competition is Al-Nassr vs Al-Ittihad FC part of?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Ittihad FC is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Nassr vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Nassr a 49% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad FC a 29% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Al-Nassr and Al-Ittihad FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Nassr vs Al-Ittihad FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Ittihad FC?
Record (8 meetings): Al-Nassr 3W | Draws 1 | Al-Ittihad FC 4W.
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Ittihad FC in?
Al-Nassr (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al-Nassr's attack at 1.42x the league average against Al-Ittihad FC's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 2.06 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ittihad FC's attack versus Al-Nassr's defence, projects 1.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 2-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
49%
2.05
22%
4.61
29%
3.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
2 – 2
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
Al-Nassr xG
Total xG
3.63
1.57
Al-Ittihad FC xG
2.05
49%
Home win
4.61
22%
Draw
3.40
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.44
31%
BTTS No
3.26
Clean Sheet
21%
4.81
13%
7.82
Win to Nil
10%
9.84
4%
26.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 8.6 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.8 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 6.1 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Nassr vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Al-Nassr and Al-Ittihad FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Al-Nassr and 1.57 for Al-Ittihad FC, a combined total of 3.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Nassr vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 53 outings, Al-Nassr have picked up 2.13 PPG on a 35W 8D 10L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Nassr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ittihad FC's form line: 36W 9D 8L from 53 games, 2.21 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-W. The sample for Al-Ittihad FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Nassr on 2.13 PPG, Al-Ittihad FC on 2.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al-Nassr have posted 2.15 PPG from 26 outings (17W 5D 4L).
On the road, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 14W 8D 4L from 26 away games — 1.92 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Nassr are averaging 2.40 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad FC are on 2.13 scored and 1.09 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Nassr have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; Al-Ittihad FC in 64%.
Last 53 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Nassr
Blended
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Ittihad FC in coming into this match?
Al-Nassr have gone 35W 8D 10L in their last 53 games (2.13 PPG), while Al-Ittihad FC have gone 36W 9D 8L in their last 53 (2.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Nassr at home or Al-Ittihad FC away?
Al-Nassr's home record (2.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Nassr at home: 2.15 PPG; Al-Ittihad FC away: 1.92 PPG.
Have Al-Nassr or Al-Ittihad FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Al-Ittihad FC in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Feb 2022, when Al-Ittihad FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Nassr's record when hosting Al-Ittihad FC specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Al-Nassr
1
Draws
5
Al-Ittihad FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Ittihad FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Nassr have won 4, Al-Ittihad FC have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Nassr and Al-Ittihad FC last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when Al-Ittihad FC 2-1 Al-Nassr.
Who has won more matches between Al-Nassr and Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 65% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al-Nassr at 69%, Al-Ittihad FC at 73%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Al-Nassr and 62% for Al-Ittihad FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Nassr keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Nassr home games / Al-Ittihad FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Nassr play Al-Ittihad FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Al-Nassr's games and 73% of Al-Ittihad FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Nassr vs Al-Ittihad FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Al-Nassr's matches and 62% of Al-Ittihad FC's.
Do Al-Nassr and Al-Ittihad FC tend to score early?
Al-Nassr have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad FC in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Nassr cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Al-Ittihad FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Nassr beat Al-Ittihad FC 2-0 at King Saud University Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Nassr 2.06 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.57 xG, a combined 3.63. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Al-Ittihad FC landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Nassr attack 1.42 / defence 0.85 against Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.35 / defence 0.99, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Nassr 49% | Draw 22% | Al-Ittihad FC 29%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Nassr 72%, Al-Ittihad FC 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Nassr's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Nassr 2.13 PPG, Al-Ittihad FC 2.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Nassr win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.08 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.