Al-Nassr vs Al-Faisaly FC – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Al-Nassr at 67% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Nassr vs Al-Faisaly FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Nassr host Al-Faisaly FC at King Saud University Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 22 April 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Nassr stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Al-Nassr have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Nassr's form when playing at home: 9W 1D 0L across 10 games at King Saud University Stadium this term (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at King Saud University Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.20 — Al-Nassr are significantly better at King Saud University Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Faisaly FC have recorded 0W 3D 3L from 6 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.67 per game is modest, conceding 1.67 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Al-Faisaly FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Faisaly FC have posted 0W 1D 2L from 3 away outings — 0.33 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Al-Nassr are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 1.70 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 0.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Al-Nassr have won 1, Al-Faisaly FC 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 15 Jan 2022, ended 4–0 with Al-Nassr winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Al-Nassr in-play tendencies (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games.
Al-Faisaly FC in-play tendencies (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Nassr 67% versus Al-Faisaly FC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Nassr 100% | Al-Faisaly FC 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Nassr 2.21 xG and Al-Faisaly FC 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Nassr attack 1.318 / defence 0.806 | Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.774 / defence 1.253. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.286. Al-Nassr carry an above-average attack strength of 1.318 — their λ of 2.21 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Faisaly FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.253 — this is suppressing Al-Nassr's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 40 Al-Nassr games / 6 Al-Faisaly FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Nassr 67% | Draw 22% | Al-Faisaly FC 10%. Fair-value odds: Al-Nassr 1.49 | Draw 4.55 | Al-Faisaly FC 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Al-Nassr (67%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Nassr at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.02 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Nassr 50% | Al-Faisaly FC 67% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Nassr vs Al-Faisaly FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: King Saud University Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 22 Apr 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Nassr 67% | Draw 22% | Al-Faisaly FC 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 51% | xG Al-Nassr 2.21 / Al-Faisaly FC 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Nassr attack 1.318 / def 0.806 | Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.774 / def 1.253 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.21
Al-Nassr xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Al-Faisaly FC xG
51%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Nassr vs Al-Faisaly FC kick off?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Faisaly FC is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Thursday 22 April 2027 at King Saud University Stadium.
Where is Al-Nassr vs Al-Faisaly FC being played?
The match is being played at King Saud University Stadium.
What competition is Al-Nassr vs Al-Faisaly FC part of?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Faisaly FC is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Nassr vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Nassr a 67% chance of winning, Al-Faisaly FC a 10% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Al-Nassr and Al-Faisaly FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Nassr vs Al-Faisaly FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Faisaly FC?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Nassr 1W | Draws 0 | Al-Faisaly FC 1W.
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Faisaly FC in?
Al-Nassr (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Al-Faisaly FC (all comps): 0W-3D-3L in 6 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 1.67 | L5 L-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al-Nassr's attacking strength (1.32x league average) is weighed against Al-Faisaly FC's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.21. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Faisaly FC's attack versus Al-Nassr's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.8%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
67%
1.48
22%
4.47
10%
9.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.21
Al-Nassr xG
Total xG
3.02
0.80
Al-Faisaly FC xG
1.48
67%
Home win
4.47
22%
Draw
9.82
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
11%
9.13
Win to Nil
30%
3.31
1%
89.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.8 | 8.7 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 9.6 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.8 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.9 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Nassr vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Al-Nassr and Al-Faisaly FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.21 expected goals for Al-Nassr and 0.80 for Al-Faisaly FC, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Nassr vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Nassr come into this having played 6 games, going 5W 0D 1L for 2.50 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Al-Nassr, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al-Faisaly FC sit at 0.50 PPG from 6 outings (0W 3D 3L), a run that reads L-D-L-D-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Faisaly FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Nassr carry the stronger recent form of the two, 2.00 PPG clear of Al-Faisaly FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Al-Nassr's home form reads 3W 0D 0L across 3 games on their own ground, a 3.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.50 PPG overall — Al-Nassr are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Al-Faisaly FC have taken 0.33 points per game from 3 outings (0W 1D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Nassr are averaging 2.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Al-Faisaly FC are on 0.67 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Nassr have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 6 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Nassr
Early Season
Al-Faisaly FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Faisaly FC in coming into this match?
Al-Nassr have gone 5W 0D 1L in their last 6 games (2.50 PPG), while Al-Faisaly FC have gone 0W 3D 3L in their last 6 (0.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Nassr at home or Al-Faisaly FC away?
Al-Nassr's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Nassr at home: 3.00 PPG; Al-Faisaly FC away: 0.33 PPG.
Have Al-Nassr or Al-Faisaly FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Al-Faisaly FC in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Al-Nassr
0
Draws
1
Al-Faisaly FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Faisaly FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Al-Nassr have won 1, Al-Faisaly FC have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Nassr and Al-Faisaly FC last play each other?
They last met on 15 January 2022, when Al-Nassr 4-0 Al-Faisaly FC.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Al-Faisaly FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al-Nassr at 67%, Al-Faisaly FC at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Al-Nassr and 67% for Al-Faisaly FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Nassr keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Al-Faisaly FC in 33%; Al-Faisaly FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Nassr home games / Al-Faisaly FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Nassr play Al-Faisaly FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Al-Nassr's games and 67% of Al-Faisaly FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Nassr vs Al-Faisaly FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Al-Nassr's matches and 67% of Al-Faisaly FC's.
Do Al-Nassr and Al-Faisaly FC tend to score early?
Al-Nassr have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al-Faisaly FC in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.