Al Kholood 0-3 Al-Qadisiyah FC – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 46% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Kholood vs Al-Qadisiyah FC encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Al-Qadisiyah FC make the trip to Ar-Rass Stadium to face Al Kholood in Pro League (matchday 13). The match kicks off on Friday 6 December 2024 at 14:50 UK time.

Form

Al Kholood (all games): 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Al Kholood's home record over their last 5 home games: 0W 2D 3L (0.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.40 lags behind their overall 1.00 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.

Al-Qadisiyah FC have collected 1.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

On the road, Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 3W 1D 2L in their last 6 away fixtures (1.67 PPG). Away from home they average 1.17 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 3 away clean sheets from their last 6 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Al-Qadisiyah FC are 0.90 PPG clear of Al Kholood over their recent games (1.90 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

Trading Data

Al Kholood goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 12 games, 5 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).

Al-Qadisiyah FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 12 games, 5 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Kholood 67% versus Al-Qadisiyah FC 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Kholood 50% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 42%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Kholood 1.35 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Kholood attack 1.013 / defence 1.429 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.946 / defence 0.966. League average goals — home 1.381 / away 1.278. Al Kholood's defence rating of 1.429 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al-Qadisiyah FC's projected output up. Data: built from Al Kholood's last 12 games and Al-Qadisiyah FC's last 12.

Result probabilities: Al Kholood 30% | Draw 24% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 46%. Fair-value odds: Al Kholood 3.32 | Draw 4.26 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.16. Al-Qadisiyah FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.35 / 1.73) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Qadisiyah FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.08 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al Kholood's last 5 home games and Al-Qadisiyah FC's last 6 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al Kholood 60% (last 5 home games) | Al-Qadisiyah FC 50% (last 6 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights