Al-Ittihad FC 2-1 Al-Nassr – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC at 51% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Nassr encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Al-Ittihad FC welcome Al-Nassr to King Abdullah Sports City in Pro League (matchday 13). Kick-off is Friday 6 December 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Al-Ittihad FC — last 10 games: 9W 0D 1L, averaging 2.70 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 7W 1D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.20 lags behind their overall 2.70 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Across their last 10 games, Al-Nassr have recorded 6W 3D 1L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Al-Nassr away from home: 8W 2D 0L from their last 10 away games — 2.60 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Their away PPG of 2.60 exceeds their overall 2.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Al-Ittihad FC carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.70 vs 2.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Al-Ittihad FC, 2 for Al-Nassr and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.4 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 27 May 2024, ended Al-Ittihad FC 2–4 Al-Nassr — a Al-Nassr win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.4 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Al-Ittihad FC trading profile (last 46 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Al-Nassr trading profile (last 46 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 65% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 75%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Ittihad FC 59% and Al-Nassr 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Ittihad FC 65% | Al-Nassr 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 2.00 xG and Al-Nassr 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.553 / defence 0.821 | Al-Nassr attack 1.327 / defence 0.951. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.287. Al-Ittihad FC carry an above-average attack rating of 1.553 — their 2.00 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Nassr have an above-average attack rating of 1.327, which lifts their away xG to 1.40. Data: built from Al-Ittihad FC's last 46 games and Al-Nassr's last 46.
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 51% | Draw 22% | Al-Nassr 27%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 1.95 | Draw 4.61 | Al-Nassr 3.71. Al-Ittihad FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS Yes probability 65% | Total xG 3.40. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.40 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% — both xG figures (2.00 / 1.40) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ittihad FC at 51% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.40 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Ittihad FC's last 10 home games and Al-Nassr's last 10 away games) averaging 3.7 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Ittihad FC 60% (last 10 home games) | Al-Nassr 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Nassr | Competition: Pro League, matchday 13 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Friday 6 December 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 51% | Draw 22% | Al-Nassr 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% (Under 34%) | BTTS Yes 65% (No 35%) | xG Al-Ittihad FC 2.00 / Al-Nassr 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.553 / def 0.821 | Al-Nassr attack 1.327 / def 0.951 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.287 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Al-Nassr xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Nassr FAQs
What time does Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Nassr kick off?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Nassr kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Friday 6 December 2024 at King Abdullah Sports City.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Nassr?
Al-Ittihad FC 2 - 1 Al-Nassr.
Where is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Nassr being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Nassr part of?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Nassr is a Pro League fixture (matchday 13) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Nassr?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad FC a 51% chance of winning, Al-Nassr a 27% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Nassr?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Nassr will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Nassr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al-Ittihad FC's attack at 1.55x the league average against Al-Nassr's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 2.00 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Nassr's attack versus Al-Ittihad FC's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al-Ittihad FC's last 46 games and Al-Nassr's last 46 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 2-0 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
51%
1.95
22%
4.61
27%
3.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
6.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Total xG
3.40
1.40
Al-Nassr xG
1.95
51%
Home win
4.61
22%
Draw
3.71
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.87
Clean Sheet
25%
4.06
14%
7.35
Win to Nil
13%
7.92
4%
27.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 4.7 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 9.4 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.3 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 6.2 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Nassr Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Nassr?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Nassr expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Al-Ittihad FC and 1.40 for Al-Nassr, a combined total of 3.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Nassr?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 46 outings, Al-Ittihad FC have picked up 1.89 PPG on a 27W 6D 13L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Al-Nassr's form line: 33W 8D 5L from 46 games, 2.33 PPG, last five D-D-W-L-W.
Put side by side, Al-Nassr are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Ittihad FC.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al-Ittihad FC have posted 2.00 PPG from their last 22 home games (14W 2D 6L).
On the road, Al-Nassr have gone 18W 2D 2L from their last 22 away games — 2.55 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Ittihad FC are averaging 2.02 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Al-Nassr are on 2.70 scored and 1.13 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Nassr in 65%.
Last 46 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
Al-Nassr
Blended
Al-Ittihad FC (Home) vs Al-Nassr (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
Al-Nassr
Blended
❓ Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Nassr Form FAQs
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Nassr in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad FC have gone 27W 6D 13L in their last 46 games (1.89 PPG), while Al-Nassr have gone 33W 8D 5L in their last 46 (2.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad FC at home or Al-Nassr away?
Al-Nassr's away record (2.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad FC at home: 2.00 PPG; Al-Nassr away: 2.55 PPG.
Have Al-Ittihad FC or Al-Nassr been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ittihad FC have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Al-Nassr in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to February 2022. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 5 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 11 Feb 2022, when Al-Ittihad FC won Al-Ittihad FC 3-0 Al-Nassr.
Al-Ittihad FC's record when hosting Al-Nassr specifically: 4W 0D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Al-Ittihad FC
1
Draws
4
Al-Nassr
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Nassr H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Nassr?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Ittihad FC have won 5, Al-Nassr have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Nassr last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 September 2026: Al-Ittihad FC 2-1 Al-Nassr.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Nassr?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al-Ittihad FC at 73%, Al-Nassr at 64%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 77% for Al-Ittihad FC and 82% for Al-Nassr. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 59% and 59% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Nassr in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad FC home games / Al-Nassr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Nassr Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Nassr matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Al-Ittihad FC's games and 64% of Al-Nassr's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Nassr matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of Al-Ittihad FC's matches and 82% of Al-Nassr's.
Do Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Nassr matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of Al-Ittihad FC's recent matches and 73% of Al-Nassr's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Ittihad FC edge out Al-Nassr 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad FC beat Al-Nassr 2-1 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 13, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad FC 2.00 xG and Al-Nassr 1.40 xG, a combined 3.40. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.55 / defence 0.82 against Al-Nassr attack 1.33 / defence 0.95, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad FC 51% | Draw 22% | Al-Nassr 27%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad FC 65%, Al-Nassr 74%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Nassr's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.89. Form was overturned, with Al-Ittihad FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.86 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.