Al Khaleej Saihat 1-0 Al Kholood – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Khaleej Saihat at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Kholood fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Al Kholood travel to Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium to take on Al Khaleej Saihat. The game is scheduled for Friday 4 October 2024, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Al Khaleej Saihat have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Khaleej Saihat at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium this season: 0W 4D 6L from 10 home games — 0.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Kholood stand at 1W 1D 3L from 5 Pro League matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al Kholood have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al Khaleej Saihat 0.60 PPG, Al Kholood 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Al Khaleej Saihat trading profile (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 60% of games.
Al Kholood trading profile (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 60%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Khaleej Saihat 20% versus Al Kholood 60%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al Khaleej Saihat 20% | Al Kholood 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Khaleej Saihat 1.11 xG and Al Kholood 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.718 / defence 0.895 | Al Kholood attack 0.794 / defence 1.084. League average goals — home 1.434 / away 1.277. Al Khaleej Saihat's attack strength of 0.718 is below the league average — the 1.11 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 39 Al Khaleej Saihat games / 5 Al Kholood games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 40% | Draw 30% | Al Kholood 29%. Fair-value odds: Al Khaleej Saihat 2.50 | Draw 3.33 | Al Kholood 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al Khaleej Saihat as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Khaleej Saihat offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.02 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates are neutral: Al Khaleej Saihat 50% | Al Kholood 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Kholood | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 4 Oct 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 40% | Draw 30% | Al Kholood 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG Al Khaleej Saihat 1.11 / Al Kholood 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.718 / def 0.895 | Al Kholood attack 0.794 / def 1.084 | league avg home 1.434 / away 1.277 • Poisson stance: Al Khaleej Saihat (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Al Kholood xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Kholood kick off?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Kholood kicked off at 16:00 on Friday 4 October 2024 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Kholood?
Al Khaleej Saihat 1 - 0 Al Kholood.
Where is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Kholood being played?
The match is being played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Kholood part of?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Kholood is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Kholood?
Our statistical model gives Al Khaleej Saihat a 40% chance of winning, Al Kholood a 29% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Al Khaleej Saihat the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Kholood?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Kholood will score (BTTS).
Will Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Kholood have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Kholood?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Kholood in?
Al Khaleej Saihat (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Al Kholood (all comps): 1W-1D-3L in 5 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al Khaleej Saihat's attack rating (0.72) and Al Kholood's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Kholood's attack versus Al Khaleej Saihat's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.0%), 1-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Khaleej Saihat Win
40%
2.49
30%
3.29
29%
3.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Total xG
2.02
0.91
Al Kholood xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
3.40
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
33%
3.05
Win to Nil
16%
6.16
10%
10.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 12.0 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.8 | 13.4 | 6.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Kholood?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Kholood expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Al Khaleej Saihat and 0.91 for Al Kholood, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Kholood?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al Khaleej Saihat's recent record stands at 1W 1D 3L from 5 games, a 0.80 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al Khaleej Saihat, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Kholood, meanwhile, have gone 1W 1D 3L across 5 games — 0.80 PPG, with L-L-D-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al Kholood, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Khaleej Saihat on 0.80 PPG, Al Kholood on 0.80. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Al Khaleej Saihat are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Al Kholood are on 1.40 scored and 2.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Khaleej Saihat have seen both teams score in 20% of their recent games; Al Kholood in 60%.
Defensively: Al Khaleej Saihat have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Khaleej Saihat
Early Season
Al Kholood
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Kholood in coming into this match?
Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 1W 1D 3L in their last 5 games (0.80 PPG), while Al Kholood have gone 1W 1D 3L in their last 5 (0.80 PPG).
Have Al Khaleej Saihat or Al Kholood been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Khaleej Saihat have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Al Kholood in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Kholood runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al Khaleej Saihat's record when hosting Al Kholood specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Al Khaleej Saihat
1
Draws
2
Al Kholood
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Kholood?
From 4 meetings on record, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 1, Al Kholood have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Kholood last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when Al Kholood 2-2 Al Khaleej Saihat.
Who has won more matches between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Kholood?
Al Kholood have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Khaleej Saihat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al Kholood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Khaleej Saihat 20%, Al Kholood 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 20% (Al Khaleej Saihat) and 60% (Al Kholood).
On the defensive side: Al Khaleej Saihat keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Al Khaleej Saihat have failed to score in 60% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Khaleej Saihat home games / Al Kholood away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Khaleej Saihat play Al Kholood?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Al Khaleej Saihat's recent matches and 60% of Al Kholood's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Kholood usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Al Khaleej Saihat's recent games and 60% of Al Kholood's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Kholood tend to score early?
Al Khaleej Saihat have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Al Kholood in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Khaleej Saihat edge out Al Kholood 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Khaleej Saihat beat Al Kholood 1-0 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Khaleej Saihat 1.11 xG and Al Kholood 0.91 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al Kholood landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.72 / defence 0.90 against Al Kholood attack 0.79 / defence 1.08, drawn from 39/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Khaleej Saihat 40% | Draw 30% | Al Kholood 29%, with Al Khaleej Saihat to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Khaleej Saihat 20%, Al Kholood 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al Kholood's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Khaleej Saihat 0.80 PPG, Al Kholood 0.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Khaleej Saihat win broke the near-deadlock. Al Khaleej Saihat conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. Al Kholood managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.