Al-Ittihad FC 4-1 Al-Raed – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Ittihad FC (59%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Ittihad FC face Al-Raed.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 15 as Al-Ittihad FC welcome Al-Raed to Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 16 January 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 9W 1D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.80 PPG return. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ittihad FC's home record at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium: 8W 0D 2L from 10 Pro League appearances (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Raed stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Raed, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Raed's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
On current form, Al-Ittihad FC have the edge — a 1.80 PPG advantage (2.80 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
Al-Ittihad FC hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 4 wins from 6 previous encounters compared to 1 for Al-Raed, with 1 draws in between.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Dec 2023, ended 1–3 with Al-Raed winning.
The historical record gives Al-Ittihad FC a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Al-Ittihad FC in-play tendencies (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Al-Raed in-play tendencies (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ittihad FC 60% versus Al-Raed 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad FC 65% | Al-Raed 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 2.07 xG and Al-Raed 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.364 / defence 0.788 | Al-Raed attack 0.976 / defence 1.059. League average goals — home 1.436 / away 1.455. Al-Ittihad FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.364 — their λ of 2.07 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Ittihad FC's defence rating of 0.788 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 48 Al-Ittihad FC games / 48 Al-Raed games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 59% | Draw 21% | Al-Raed 20%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 1.69 | Draw 4.76 | Al-Raed 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ittihad FC (59%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.19 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ittihad FC 70% | Al-Raed 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Raed | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 16 Jan 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 59% | Draw 21% | Al-Raed 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 59% | xG Al-Ittihad FC 2.07 / Al-Raed 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.364 / def 0.788 | Al-Raed attack 0.976 / def 1.059 | league avg home 1.436 / away 1.455 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.07
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Al-Raed xG
59%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Raed kick off?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Raed kicked off at 17:00 on Thursday 16 January 2025 at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Raed?
Al-Ittihad FC 4 - 1 Al-Raed.
Where is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Raed being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Raed part of?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Raed is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Raed?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad FC a 59% chance of winning, Al-Raed a 20% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Raed?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Raed will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Raed have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Raed?
Record (6 meetings): Al-Ittihad FC 4W | Draws 1 | Al-Raed 1W.
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Raed in?
Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Al-Raed (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al-Ittihad FC's attack at 1.36x the league average against Al-Raed's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 2.07 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Raed's attack versus Al-Ittihad FC's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
59%
1.69
21%
4.81
20%
5.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
2 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.07
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Total xG
3.19
1.12
Al-Raed xG
1.69
59%
Home win
4.81
21%
Draw
5.04
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
13%
7.96
Win to Nil
19%
5.16
2%
40.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Raed?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Raed expected to score?
The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Al-Ittihad FC and 1.12 for Al-Raed, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Raed?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Ittihad FC's recent record stands at 28W 7D 13L from 48 games, a 1.90 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Al-Ittihad FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Raed, meanwhile, have gone 13W 12D 23L across 48 games — 1.06 PPG, with L-W-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Al-Raed is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Ittihad FC by 0.84 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Raed heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al-Ittihad FC have managed 16W 2D 6L from 24 games — 2.08 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Raed's away record stands at 6W 7D 11L across 24 trips, a 1.04 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Ittihad FC are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Al-Raed are on 1.23 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 48 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
Al-Raed
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Raed in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad FC have gone 28W 7D 13L in their last 48 games (1.90 PPG), while Al-Raed have gone 13W 12D 23L in their last 48 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad FC at home or Al-Raed away?
Al-Ittihad FC's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad FC at home: 2.08 PPG; Al-Raed away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Al-Ittihad FC or Al-Raed been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ittihad FC have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Al-Raed in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Raed runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Ittihad FC have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Aug 2021, when Al-Ittihad FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Ittihad FC's record when hosting Al-Raed specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Al-Ittihad FC
1
Draws
1
Al-Raed
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Raed?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad FC have won 6, Al-Raed have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Raed last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2025, when Al-Raed 1-3 Al-Ittihad FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Raed?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Al-Raed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ittihad FC 71%, Al-Raed 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Al-Ittihad FC and 50% for Al-Raed. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Raed in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad FC home games / Al-Raed away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad FC play Al-Raed?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Al-Ittihad FC's games and 54% of Al-Raed's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Raed usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Al-Ittihad FC's matches and 50% of Al-Raed's.
Do Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Raed tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad FC have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Al-Raed in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Ittihad FC run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Al-Raed.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad FC beat Al-Raed 4-1 at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad FC 2.07 xG and Al-Raed 1.12 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Al-Ittihad FC beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.36 / defence 0.79 against Al-Raed attack 0.98 / defence 1.06, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad FC 59% | Draw 21% | Al-Raed 20%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad FC 65%, Al-Raed 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Raed's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.06. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.29 average — above their attacking norm. Al-Raed (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.