Al-Ittihad FC 3-1 Al-Qadisiyah FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ittihad FC at 68%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Al-Qadisiyah FC travel to King Abdullah Sports City to take on Al-Ittihad FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 19 October 2024, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ittihad FC stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Al-Ittihad FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Ittihad FC at King Abdullah Sports City this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Qadisiyah FC have recorded 3W 1D 2L from 6 outings — 1.67 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets from 6 games (67%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 17% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Al-Qadisiyah FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 away fixtures this term (1.33 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 3 games (67%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.90 PPG (Al-Ittihad FC) versus 1.67 (Al-Qadisiyah FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Al-Ittihad FC in-play and half-time data (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
Al-Qadisiyah FC in-play and half-time data (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ittihad FC 83% versus Al-Qadisiyah FC 17%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad FC 83% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 2.28 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.644 / defence 1.030 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.705 / defence 0.947. League average goals — home 1.466 / away 1.276. Al-Ittihad FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.644 — their λ of 2.28 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 40 Al-Ittihad FC games / 6 Al-Qadisiyah FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 68% | Draw 18% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 14%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 1.47 | Draw 5.56 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ittihad FC (68%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ittihad FC at 68% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.21 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ittihad FC 80% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 33% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Oct 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 68% | Draw 18% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 54% | xG Al-Ittihad FC 2.28 / Al-Qadisiyah FC 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.644 / def 1.030 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.705 / def 0.947 | league avg home 1.466 / away 1.276 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.28
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
54%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC kick off?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 19 October 2024 at King Abdullah Sports City.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Al-Ittihad FC 3 - 1 Al-Qadisiyah FC.
Where is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC part of?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad FC a 68% chance of winning, Al-Qadisiyah FC a 14% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Qadisiyah FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Qadisiyah FC in?
Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Al-Qadisiyah FC (all comps): 3W-1D-2L in 6 | 1.67 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Ittihad FC's attack rating (1.64) and Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 2.28 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Qadisiyah FC's attack versus Al-Ittihad FC's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 1-1 (9.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
68%
1.47
18%
5.46
14%
7.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.28
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Total xG
3.21
0.93
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
1.47
68%
Home win
5.46
18%
Draw
7.24
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
40%
2.53
10%
9.80
Win to Nil
27%
3.72
1%
70.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.2 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.8 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.0 | 7.4 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Qadisiyah FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.28 expected goals for Al-Ittihad FC and 0.93 for Al-Qadisiyah FC, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Ittihad FC come into this having played 6 games, going 5W 0D 1L for 2.50 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al-Qadisiyah FC sit at 1.67 PPG from 6 outings (3W 1D 2L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Ittihad FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.83 PPG clear of Al-Qadisiyah FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Al-Ittihad FC's home form reads 3W 0D 0L across 3 games on their own ground, a 3.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.50 PPG overall — Al-Ittihad FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Al-Qadisiyah FC have taken 1.33 points per game from 3 outings (1W 1D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Ittihad FC are averaging 2.83 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Al-Qadisiyah FC are on 1.00 scored and 0.50 conceded. Al-Ittihad FC's scoring rate against Al-Qadisiyah FC's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad FC have seen both teams score in 83% of their recent games; Al-Qadisiyah FC in 17%.
Defensively: Al-Qadisiyah FC in 67% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 6 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad FC
Early Season
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Qadisiyah FC in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad FC have gone 5W 0D 1L in their last 6 games (2.50 PPG), while Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 3W 1D 2L in their last 6 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad FC at home or Al-Qadisiyah FC away?
Al-Ittihad FC's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad FC at home: 3.00 PPG; Al-Qadisiyah FC away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Al-Ittihad FC or Al-Qadisiyah FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ittihad FC have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Al-Qadisiyah FC in 67%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 21 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Al-Qadisiyah FC have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 May 2026, when Al-Qadisiyah FC won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Ittihad FC's record when hosting Al-Qadisiyah FC specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Al-Ittihad FC
1
Draws
2
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad FC have won 1, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Qadisiyah FC last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2026, when Al-Ittihad FC 1-5 Al-Qadisiyah FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Al-Qadisiyah FC see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al-Ittihad FC at 100%, Al-Qadisiyah FC at 33%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Al-Ittihad FC and 33% for Al-Qadisiyah FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Qadisiyah FC in 67%; Al-Qadisiyah FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad FC home games / Al-Qadisiyah FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad FC play Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Al-Ittihad FC's games and 33% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Al-Ittihad FC's matches and 33% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's.
Do Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Qadisiyah FC tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad FC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al-Qadisiyah FC in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Ittihad FC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Al-Qadisiyah FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad FC beat Al-Qadisiyah FC 3-1 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 7, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad FC 2.28 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 0.93 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.64 / defence 1.03 against Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.70 / defence 0.95, drawn from 40/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad FC 68% | Draw 18% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 14%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 68%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad FC 83%, Al-Qadisiyah FC 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 17% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 2.50 PPG against 1.67. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) managed 3 against a 4.33 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Qadisiyah FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.