Al-Ittihad FC 1-1 Al Okhdood – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Al-Ittihad FC (72%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Al-Ittihad FC face Al Okhdood.

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Match Analysis

Al-Ittihad FC host Al Okhdood at Al Inma Bank Stadium at King Abdullah Sport City in Pro League (matchday 23). Kick-off is Sunday 2 March 2025 at 19:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Al-Ittihad FC — last 10 games: 7W 2D 1L, averaging 2.30 points per game. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

In front of their own supporters, Al-Ittihad FC have posted 10W 0D 0L from their last 10 home games — 3.00 PPG. They are averaging 3.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.30 — Al-Ittihad FC are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Al Okhdood stand at 2W 1D 7L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Al Okhdood's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 1D 6L (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.

On current form, Al-Ittihad FC have the edge — a 1.60 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

H2H Record

Al-Ittihad FC hold a clear advantage across the 3 H2H matches in our data, with 3 wins compared to 0 for Al Okhdood and 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 3 Oct 2024, ended Al-Ittihad FC 2–1 Al Okhdood — a Al-Ittihad FC win.

The head-to-head data gives Al-Ittihad FC an edge — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.

In-Play Profile

Al-Ittihad FC in-play tendencies (last 56 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.

Al Okhdood in-play tendencies (last 56 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ittihad FC 66% versus Al Okhdood 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad FC 68% | Al Okhdood 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 2.68 xG and Al Okhdood 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.581 / defence 0.901 | Al Okhdood attack 0.845 / defence 1.123. League average goals — home 1.512 / away 1.350. Al-Ittihad FC carry an above-average attack rating of 1.581 — their 2.68 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Al-Ittihad FC's last 56 games and Al Okhdood's last 56.

Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 72% | Draw 16% | Al Okhdood 12%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 1.38 | Draw 6.44 | Al Okhdood 8.31. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ittihad FC (72%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.71. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.71 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (2.68 / 1.03) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al-Ittihad FC are the pick at 72% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection.

Poisson projects 3.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 72% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Ittihad FC's last 10 home games and Al Okhdood's last 10 away games) averaging 3.7 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Ittihad FC 80% (last 10 home games) | Al Okhdood 50% (last 10 away games).

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