Al-Fayha 0-0 Al Wehda Club – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Al-Fayha at 44% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fayha vs Al Wehda Club encounter.

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Match Analysis

Al-Fayha host Al Wehda Club at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium in Pro League (matchday 23). Kick-off is Saturday 1 March 2025 at 19:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Al-Fayha — last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D L W D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

At home, Al-Fayha have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Across their last 10 games, Al Wehda Club have recorded 1W 1D 8L — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Al Wehda Club's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 1D 8L (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

On current form, Al-Fayha have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

Head to Head

The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Al-Fayha, 1 for Al Wehda Club and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 3 Oct 2024, ended Al-Fayha 2–2 Al Wehda Club — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Al-Fayha in-play and half-time data (last 56 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 48% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 58%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

Al Wehda Club in-play and half-time data (last 56 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 54% versus Al Wehda Club 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 50% | Al Wehda Club 62%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 1.16 xG and Al Wehda Club 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.608 / defence 0.764 | Al Wehda Club attack 0.787 / defence 1.256. League average goals — home 1.517 / away 1.352. Al-Fayha's attack rating of 0.608 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.16. Al Wehda Club's defence rating of 1.256 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al-Fayha's projected output up. Al Wehda Club's attack rating of 0.787 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.81. Al-Fayha have a tight defence (rating 0.764), which is pulling Al Wehda Club's projected output down. Data: built from Al-Fayha's last 56 games and Al Wehda Club's last 56.

Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 44% | Draw 30% | Al Wehda Club 26%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 2.28 | Draw 3.28 | Al Wehda Club 3.89. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS Yes probability 38% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 62% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al-Fayha are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Fayha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 1.97 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 68% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 62%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Fayha 30% (last 10 home games) | Al Wehda Club 60% (last 10 away games).

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