Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2-1 Damac – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC (68%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Hilal Saudi FC face Damac.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Damac meet at Kingdom Arena in Pro League, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 16 March 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have collected 3.00 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 10W 0D 0L. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 3.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC at Kingdom Arena this season: 10W 0D 0L from 10 home games — 3.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 3.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Kingdom Arena.
Damac (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: L L D L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Damac, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Damac's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Al-Hilal Saudi FC's 3.00 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Damac's 1.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC, who have won 3 of the last 5 meetings against Damac — a 2D 0W return for the visitors.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Al-Hilal Saudi FC half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 77% of those occasions; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time.
Damac half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 43% versus Damac 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 55% | Damac 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.17 xG and Damac 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.618 / defence 0.645 | Damac attack 0.873 / defence 0.951. League average goals — home 1.409 / away 1.471. Al-Hilal Saudi FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.618 — their λ of 2.17 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence rating of 0.645 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 53 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games / 53 Damac games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 68% | Draw 20% | Damac 13%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.47 | Draw 5.00 | Damac 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Al-Hilal Saudi FC (68%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.99 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 40% | Damac 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Damac | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Kingdom Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Mar 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 68% | Draw 20% | Damac 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 50% | xG Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.17 / Damac 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.618 / def 0.645 | Damac attack 0.873 / def 0.951 | league avg home 1.409 / away 1.471 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.17
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Damac xG
50%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Damac kick off?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Damac kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 16 March 2024 at Kingdom Arena.
What was the final score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Damac?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2 - 1 Damac.
Where is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Damac being played?
The match is being played at Kingdom Arena.
What competition is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Damac part of?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Damac is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Damac?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 68% chance of winning, Damac a 13% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Damac?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Damac will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Damac have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Damac?
Record (5 meetings): Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3W | Draws 2 | Damac 0W.
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Damac in?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 10W-0D-0L in 10 | 3.00 PPG | GF 3.60 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Damac (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack at 1.62x the league average against Damac's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 2.17 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Damac's attack (0.87x) against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence (0.65x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
68%
1.48
20%
5.00
13%
7.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.17
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Total xG
2.99
0.83
Damac xG
1.48
68%
Home win
5.00
20%
Draw
7.99
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
11%
8.73
Win to Nil
29%
3.39
1%
69.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.8 | 9.0 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 9.7 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.5 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.6 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Damac?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Damac expected to score?
The model projects 2.17 expected goals for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 0.83 for Damac, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Damac?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 53 outings, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have picked up 2.34 PPG on a 38W 10D 5L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Hilal Saudi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Damac's form line: 18W 16D 19L from 53 games, 1.32 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-W. The sample for Damac is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the form team by 1.02 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Damac.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have posted 2.38 PPG from 26 outings (19W 5D 2L).
On the road, Damac have gone 7W 7D 12L from 26 away games — 1.08 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are averaging 2.34 goals scored and 0.77 conceded per game recently; Damac are on 1.32 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 51% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
Damac
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Damac in coming into this match?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 38W 10D 5L in their last 53 games (2.34 PPG), while Damac have gone 18W 16D 19L in their last 53 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home or Damac away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home record (2.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home: 2.38 PPG; Damac away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Al-Hilal Saudi FC or Damac been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 51% of their recent games, Damac in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 28 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Damac — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
3
Draws
0
Damac
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Damac?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 7, Damac have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Damac last play each other?
They last met on 28 April 2026, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1-0 Damac.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Damac?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 54%, Damac 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Al-Hilal Saudi FC) and 46% (Damac).
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Damac in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hilal Saudi FC home games / Damac away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hilal Saudi FC play Damac?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent matches and 54% of Damac's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Damac usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent games and 46% of Damac's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Damac tend to score early?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Damac in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Hilal Saudi FC edge out Damac 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Damac 2-1 at Kingdom Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.17 xG and Damac 0.83 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.62 / defence 0.65 against Damac attack 0.87 / defence 0.95, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hilal Saudi FC 68% | Draw 20% | Damac 13%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 68%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 55%, Damac 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and conceded here.
Damac's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.34 PPG against 1.32. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.