Al-Hazm 0-3 Al Shabab – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Al Shabab at 51% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Hazm vs Al Shabab encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

Al-Hazm welcome Al Shabab to Ar-Rass Stadium in Pro League (matchday 24). Kick-off is Thursday 14 March 2024 at 19:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Al-Hazm stand at 1W 5D 4L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Al-Hazm's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 3.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Across their last 10 games, Al Shabab have recorded 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

When travelling, Al Shabab have posted 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Al-Hazm) versus 1.00 (Al Shabab). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H

Al Shabab have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the 3 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Al-Hazm. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.3 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 21 Sep 2023, ended Al-Hazm 1–4 Al Shabab — a Al Shabab win.

The H2H data backs the away side. Al Shabab have won 3 of 3 H2H matches, and at 3.3 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.

In-Play Data

Al-Hazm trading profile (last 23 games, 11 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 91% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.

Al Shabab trading profile (last 23 games, 11 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 46% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Hazm 70% and Al Shabab 52% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hazm 56% | Al Shabab 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hazm 0.93 xG and Al Shabab 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hazm attack 0.794 / defence 1.507 | Al Shabab attack 0.696 / defence 0.812. League average goals — home 1.440 / away 1.472. Al-Hazm's attack rating of 0.794 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.93. Al Shabab's attack rating of 0.696 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.54. Al-Hazm's defence rating of 1.507 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al Shabab's projected output up. Data: built from Al-Hazm's last 23 games and Al Shabab's last 53.

Result probabilities: Al-Hazm 22% | Draw 27% | Al Shabab 51%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hazm 4.52 | Draw 3.73 | Al Shabab 1.96. Al Shabab hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Al Shabab as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (Al Shabab 3 wins from 3 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Shabab offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 55% — low conviction — though recent form (Al-Hazm's last 10 home games and Al Shabab's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches point the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Al-Hazm 70% (last 10 home games) | Al Shabab 40% (last 10 away games).

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