Al-Hazm 1-3 Al Taawon – Result & Analysis

📋

Poisson rates Al Taawon at 64% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Hazm vs Al Taawon encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Al-Hazm host Al Taawon at Ar-Rass Stadium in Pro League (matchday 8). Kick-off is Friday 29 September 2023 at 17:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Al-Hazm — last 7 games: 0W 3D 4L, averaging 0.43 points per game. Last five: D D L D L. They are averaging 0.71 goals per game and conceding 2.29 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.29 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings (14%). Both teams have scored in 71% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Al-Hazm have posted 0W 1D 2L from their last 3 home games — 0.33 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 2.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Al Taawon stand at 8W 1D 1L — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Al Taawon's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.80 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al Taawon — 2.07 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.50 vs 0.43). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 67% of Al-Hazm's games and 60% of Al Taawon's (from Al-Hazm's last 3 home games and Al Taawon's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Al-Hazm have won 0, Al Taawon 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.5 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 7 Jan 2022, ended Al-Hazm 1–2 Al Taawon — a Al Taawon win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Al-Hazm in-play tendencies (last 7 games, 3 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%.

Al Taawon in-play tendencies (last 7 games, 3 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Hazm 71% and Al Taawon 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hazm 43% | Al Taawon 43%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hazm 0.89 xG and Al Taawon 2.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hazm attack 0.707 / defence 1.342 | Al Taawon attack 1.025 / defence 0.827. League average goals — home 1.529 / away 1.471. Al-Hazm's attack rating of 0.707 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.89. Al-Hazm's defence rating of 1.342 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al Taawon's projected output up. Data: built from Al-Hazm's last 7 games and Al Taawon's last 37.

Result probabilities: Al-Hazm 16% | Draw 21% | Al Taawon 64%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hazm 6.33 | Draw 4.85 | Al Taawon 1.57. The model has a clear lean to Al Taawon (64%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al Taawon are the pick at 64% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.92 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Hazm's last 3 home games and Al Taawon's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Hazm 67% (last 3 home games) | Al Taawon 60% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights