Al-Ahli Jeddah 0-0 Al-Ettifaq – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al-Ahli Jeddah face Al-Ettifaq.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Al-Ettifaq travel to Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium to take on Al-Ahli Jeddah in Pro League (matchday 8). The game is scheduled for Saturday 30 September 2023 at 20:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 7 matches, Al-Ahli Jeddah stand at 5W 0D 2L — 2.14 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 2.29 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings (29%). Both teams have scored in 71% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Al-Ahli Jeddah have posted 4W 0D 0L from their last 4 home games — 3.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.25 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 clean sheets from their last 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.14 — Al-Ahli Jeddah are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Al-Ettifaq — last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Al-Ettifaq's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.14 PPG, Al-Ettifaq 2.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Al-Ahli Jeddah, 1 for Al-Ettifaq and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 4 Mar 2022, ended Al-Ahli Jeddah 0–1 Al-Ettifaq — a Al-Ettifaq win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Al-Ahli Jeddah trading profile (last 7 games, 3 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games; Over 3.5 in 71%.
Al-Ettifaq trading profile (last 7 games, 3 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Ahli Jeddah 71% and Al-Ettifaq 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ahli Jeddah 71% | Al-Ettifaq 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.54 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.142 / defence 0.930 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.987 / defence 0.885. League average goals — home 1.523 / away 1.452. Data: built from Al-Ahli Jeddah's last 7 games and Al-Ettifaq's last 37.
Result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 42% | Draw 25% | Al-Ettifaq 33%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.37 | Draw 4.04 | Al-Ettifaq 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ahli Jeddah offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.87 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Ahli Jeddah's last 4 home games and Al-Ettifaq's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Al-Ahli Jeddah 50% (last 4 home games) | Al-Ettifaq 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ettifaq | Competition: Pro League, matchday 8 | Venue: Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 30 September 2023 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 42% | Draw 25% | Al-Ettifaq 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.54 / Al-Ettifaq 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.142 / def 0.930 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.987 / def 0.885 | league avg home 1.523 / away 1.452 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Al-Ettifaq xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ettifaq FAQs
What time does Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ettifaq kick off?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ettifaq kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Saturday 30 September 2023 at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Ahli Jeddah 0 - 0 Al-Ettifaq.
Where is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ettifaq being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ettifaq part of?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ettifaq is a Pro League fixture (matchday 8) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ahli Jeddah a 42% chance of winning, Al-Ettifaq a 33% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ettifaq will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ettifaq have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack rating (1.14) and Al-Ettifaq's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.54 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ettifaq's attack versus Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al-Ahli Jeddah's last 7 games and Al-Ettifaq's last 37 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
42%
2.37
25%
4.04
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Total xG
2.87
1.33
Al-Ettifaq xG
2.37
42%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
26%
3.79
21%
4.66
Win to Nil
11%
8.98
7%
14.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.5 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.6 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.9 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ettifaq Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ettifaq expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 1.33 for Al-Ettifaq, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ettifaq?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 7 outings, Al-Ahli Jeddah have picked up 2.14 PPG on a 5W 0D 2L record — W-W-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Al-Ettifaq's form line: 5W 1D 1L from 7 games, 2.29 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Ahli Jeddah on 2.14 PPG, Al-Ettifaq on 2.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al-Ahli Jeddah have posted 3.00 PPG from their last 3 home games (3W 0D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 2.14 PPG overall — Al-Ahli Jeddah are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Al-Ettifaq have gone 2W 0D 1L from their last 3 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ahli Jeddah come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Ahli Jeddah are averaging 2.29 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; Al-Ettifaq are on 2.14 scored and 1.29 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ahli Jeddah have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; Al-Ettifaq in 71%.
Last 7 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Early Season
Al-Ettifaq
Early Season
Al-Ahli Jeddah (Home) vs Al-Ettifaq (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Early Season
Al-Ettifaq
Early Season
❓ Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ettifaq Form FAQs
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ettifaq in coming into this match?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 5W 0D 2L in their last 7 games (2.14 PPG), while Al-Ettifaq have gone 5W 1D 1L in their last 7 (2.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home or Al-Ettifaq away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home: 3.00 PPG; Al-Ettifaq away: 2.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2021. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was on 28 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 16 Oct 2021, when Al-Ahli Jeddah won Al-Ahli Jeddah 4-0 Al-Ettifaq.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's record when hosting Al-Ettifaq specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Al-Ahli Jeddah
3
Draws
2
Al-Ettifaq
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ettifaq H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ettifaq?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 3, Al-Ettifaq have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ettifaq last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 January 2026: Al-Ahli Jeddah 4-0 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Al-Ahli Jeddah 33% BTTS, Al-Ettifaq 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 33% for Al-Ettifaq.
On the defensive side: Al-Ahli Jeddah keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Al-Ettifaq in 33%; Al-Ettifaq in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ahli Jeddah home games / Al-Ettifaq away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ettifaq Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ettifaq matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's recent matches and 33% of Al-Ettifaq's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ettifaq matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's recent games and 33% of Al-Ettifaq's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ettifaq matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's recent matches and 67% of Al-Ettifaq's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Al-Ahli Jeddah's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium, Regular Season - 8, as Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ettifaq drew 0-0 in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.54 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.33 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al-Ahli Jeddah fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Al-Ettifaq landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.14 / defence 0.93 against Al-Ettifaq attack 0.99 / defence 0.89, drawn from 7/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ahli Jeddah 42% | Draw 25% | Al-Ettifaq 33%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ahli Jeddah 71%, Al-Ettifaq 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.14 PPG, Al-Ettifaq 2.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.