Al-Fayha 3-1 Al Khaleej Saihat – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Khaleej Saihat at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Fayha vs Al Khaleej Saihat fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
King Abdullah Sports City Stadium plays host to Al-Fayha versus Al Khaleej Saihat in Pro League, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Wednesday 28 January 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Fayha have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D L D L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fayha's home record at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Al Khaleej Saihat (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W W W L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Khaleej Saihat, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Khaleej Saihat's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 7 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Al-Fayha, 3 for Al Khaleej Saihat and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2025, ended 0–3 with Al Khaleej Saihat winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Al-Fayha goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Al Khaleej Saihat goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 41% versus Al Khaleej Saihat 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 43% | Al Khaleej Saihat 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 1.43 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.751 / defence 0.962 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.145 / defence 1.253. League average goals — home 1.514 / away 1.443. Al-Fayha's attack strength of 0.751 is below the league average — the 1.43 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al Khaleej Saihat bring a strong defensive rating of 1.253 — this is suppressing Al-Fayha's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 51 Al-Fayha games / 51 Al Khaleej Saihat games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 33% | Draw 26% | Al Khaleej Saihat 41%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 3.03 | Draw 3.85 | Al Khaleej Saihat 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.43 / 1.59) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Khaleej Saihat at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Khaleej Saihat if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.02 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fayha 30% | Al Khaleej Saihat 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fayha vs Al Khaleej Saihat | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 28 Jan 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fayha 33% | Draw 26% | Al Khaleej Saihat 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 62% | xG Al-Fayha 1.43 / Al Khaleej Saihat 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fayha attack 0.751 / def 0.962 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.145 / def 1.253 | league avg home 1.514 / away 1.443 • Poisson stance: Al Khaleej Saihat (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Al-Fayha xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
62%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fayha vs Al Khaleej Saihat kick off?
Al-Fayha vs Al Khaleej Saihat kicked off at 17:30 on Wednesday 28 January 2026 at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fayha vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Al-Fayha 3 - 1 Al Khaleej Saihat.
Where is Al-Fayha vs Al Khaleej Saihat being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fayha vs Al Khaleej Saihat part of?
Al-Fayha vs Al Khaleej Saihat is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fayha vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fayha a 33% chance of winning, Al Khaleej Saihat a 41% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al Khaleej Saihat the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fayha vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Al-Fayha and Al Khaleej Saihat will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fayha vs Al Khaleej Saihat have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al Khaleej Saihat?
Record (7 meetings): Al-Fayha 2W | Draws 2 | Al Khaleej Saihat 3W.
What form are Al-Fayha and Al Khaleej Saihat in?
Al-Fayha (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-D-L-W. Al Khaleej Saihat (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al-Fayha's attack at 0.75x the league average against Al Khaleej Saihat's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al Khaleej Saihat's attack (1.15x) against Al-Fayha's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.59.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Khaleej Saihat Win
33%
3.00
26%
3.83
41%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Al-Fayha xG
Total xG
3.02
1.59
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
3.00
33%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
2.47
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.63
38%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
20%
4.91
24%
4.16
Win to Nil
7%
14.73
10%
10.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 7.8 | 6.2 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.1 | 8.8 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.9 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fayha vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Al-Fayha and Al Khaleej Saihat expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Al-Fayha and 1.59 for Al Khaleej Saihat, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fayha vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 51 outings, Al-Fayha have picked up 1.04 PPG on a 12W 17D 22L record — D-L-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Khaleej Saihat's form line: 17W 11D 23L from 51 games, 1.22 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-D. The sample for Al Khaleej Saihat is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.04 PPG for Al-Fayha against 1.22 for Al Khaleej Saihat. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Al-Fayha have posted 1.24 PPG from 25 outings (7W 10D 8L).
On the road, Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 8W 5D 12L from 25 away games — 1.16 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Fayha are averaging 0.84 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Al Khaleej Saihat are on 1.51 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Khaleej Saihat in 63%.
Last 51 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fayha
Blended
Al Khaleej Saihat
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fayha and Al Khaleej Saihat in coming into this match?
Al-Fayha have gone 12W 17D 22L in their last 51 games (1.04 PPG), while Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 17W 11D 23L in their last 51 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fayha at home or Al Khaleej Saihat away?
Al-Fayha's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fayha at home: 1.24 PPG; Al Khaleej Saihat away: 1.16 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 28 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Khaleej Saihat won 0-3 on 28 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Fayha have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Al Khaleej Saihat — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Al-Fayha
2
Draws
3
Al Khaleej Saihat
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al Khaleej Saihat?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Fayha have won 3, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fayha and Al Khaleej Saihat last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2026, when Al-Fayha 3-1 Al Khaleej Saihat.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Fayha see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Al Khaleej Saihat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fayha 36%, Al Khaleej Saihat 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 24% (Al-Fayha) and 80% (Al Khaleej Saihat).
On the defensive side: Al-Fayha keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Al-Fayha have failed to score in 44% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fayha home games / Al Khaleej Saihat away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fayha play Al Khaleej Saihat?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 36% of Al-Fayha's games and 80% of Al Khaleej Saihat's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Fayha vs Al Khaleej Saihat usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 24% of Al-Fayha's recent games and 80% of Al Khaleej Saihat's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fayha and Al Khaleej Saihat tend to score early?
Al-Fayha have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Al Khaleej Saihat in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Fayha cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Al Khaleej Saihat.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fayha beat Al Khaleej Saihat 3-1 at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 1.43 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 1.59 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Al-Fayha beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 0.75 / defence 0.96 against Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.15 / defence 1.25, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 33% | Draw 26% | Al Khaleej Saihat 41%, with Al Khaleej Saihat to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Al-Fayha win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 43%, Al Khaleej Saihat 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fayha's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Fayha 1.04 PPG, Al Khaleej Saihat 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Fayha win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm. Al Khaleej Saihat (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.