Al-Fateh 2-0 Al-Ittihad FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Al-Ittihad FC travel to Al Fateh Club Stadium to take on Al-Fateh. The game is scheduled for Thursday 17 April 2025, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Fateh have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: L L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fateh at Al Fateh Club Stadium this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Al Fateh Club Stadium this season.
Al-Ittihad FC — All Games: 6W 4D 0L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D D W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ittihad FC's form when playing away from home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Al-Ittihad FC's 2.20 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Al-Fateh's 1.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The previous 6 encounters between these sides heavily favour Al-Ittihad FC, who boast 5 victories compared to 0 for Al-Fateh.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Nov 2024, ended 0–2 with Al-Ittihad FC winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Ittihad FC have won 5 of 6 previous encounters, and at 4.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Al-Fateh trading profile (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Al-Ittihad FC trading profile (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Fateh 75% and Al-Ittihad FC 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Fateh 66% | Al-Ittihad FC 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 1.27 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 0.974 / defence 1.088 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.197 / defence 0.921. League average goals — home 1.418 / away 1.304. Data: 61 Al-Fateh games / 61 Al-Ittihad FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 28% | Draw 25% | Al-Ittihad FC 47%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 3.57 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Ittihad FC 2.13. Al-Ittihad FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ittihad FC are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.97 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fateh 90% | Al-Ittihad FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Al Fateh Club Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 17 Apr 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fateh 28% | Draw 25% | Al-Ittihad FC 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG Al-Fateh 1.27 / Al-Ittihad FC 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fateh attack 0.974 / def 1.088 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.197 / def 0.921 | league avg home 1.418 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Al-Fateh xG
Expected Goals
1.70
Al-Ittihad FC xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC kick off?
Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC kicked off at 19:00 on Thursday 17 April 2025 at Al Fateh Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Fateh 2 - 0 Al-Ittihad FC.
Where is Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC being played?
The match is being played at Al Fateh Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC part of?
Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fateh a 28% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad FC a 47% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Al-Fateh and Al-Ittihad FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al-Ittihad FC?
Record (6 meetings): Al-Fateh 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Ittihad FC 5W.
What form are Al-Fateh and Al-Ittihad FC in?
Al-Fateh (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-D-W. Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Fateh's attack rating (0.97) and Al-Ittihad FC's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ittihad FC's attack versus Al-Fateh's defence, projects 1.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
28%
3.53
25%
4.05
47%
2.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Al-Fateh xG
Total xG
2.97
1.70
Al-Ittihad FC xG
3.53
28%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
2.13
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
18%
5.47
28%
3.57
Win to Nil
5%
19.32
13%
7.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 8.7 | 7.4 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.1 | 9.4 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.0 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Al-Fateh and Al-Ittihad FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Al-Fateh and 1.70 for Al-Ittihad FC, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 61 outings, Al-Fateh have picked up 1.16 PPG on a 19W 14D 28L record — L-L-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ittihad FC's form line: 36W 11D 14L from 61 games, 1.95 PPG, last five D-D-W-D-W. The sample for Al-Ittihad FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Ittihad FC are the form team by 0.79 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Fateh.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al-Fateh have posted 1.27 PPG from 30 outings (10W 8D 12L).
On the road, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 14W 8D 8L from 30 away games — 1.67 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Fateh are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad FC are on 2.07 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Fateh have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Al-Ittihad FC in 67%.
Last 61 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fateh
Blended
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fateh and Al-Ittihad FC in coming into this match?
Al-Fateh have gone 19W 14D 28L in their last 61 games (1.16 PPG), while Al-Ittihad FC have gone 36W 11D 14L in their last 61 (1.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fateh at home or Al-Ittihad FC away?
Al-Ittihad FC's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fateh at home: 1.27 PPG; Al-Ittihad FC away: 1.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Mar 2023, when Al-Ittihad FC won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Fateh's record when hosting Al-Ittihad FC specifically: 1W 3D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Al-Fateh
3
Draws
6
Al-Ittihad FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al-Ittihad FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Fateh have won 1, Al-Ittihad FC have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fateh and Al-Ittihad FC last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Al-Fateh 0-0 Al-Ittihad FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fateh and Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al-Fateh at 73%, Al-Ittihad FC at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Al-Fateh) and 57% (Al-Ittihad FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ittihad FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fateh home games / Al-Ittihad FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fateh play Al-Ittihad FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Al-Fateh's games and 60% of Al-Ittihad FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Al-Fateh's matches and 57% of Al-Ittihad FC's.
Do Al-Fateh and Al-Ittihad FC tend to score early?
Al-Fateh have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad FC in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Fateh cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Al-Ittihad FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fateh beat Al-Ittihad FC 2-0 at Al Fateh Club Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fateh 1.27 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.70 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Al-Ittihad FC landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fateh attack 0.97 / defence 1.09 against Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.20 / defence 0.92, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fateh 28% | Draw 25% | Al-Ittihad FC 47%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Al-Fateh win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fateh 66%, Al-Ittihad FC 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fateh's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.16. Form was overturned, with Al-Fateh winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.73 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.