Al-Fateh 1-2 Al Diriyah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Diriyah at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Fateh vs Al Diriyah fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Al Diriyah travel to Al Fateh club stadium to take on Al-Fateh. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 9 September 2026, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Fateh have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L D D D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Al-Fateh have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Fateh have posted 3W 4D 3L at Al Fateh club stadium — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Al-Fateh are significantly better at Al Fateh club stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al Diriyah — All Games: 2W 1D 2L from 5 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 2 clean sheets in 5 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Al Diriyah have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al Diriyah are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Data
Al-Fateh trading profile (5 games): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 80% of games.
Al Diriyah trading profile (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Al-Fateh 20% | Al Diriyah 20%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al-Fateh 20% | Al Diriyah 20%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 0.87 xG and Al Diriyah 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 0.809 / defence 0.845 | Al Diriyah attack 1.063 / defence 0.804. League average goals — home 1.338 / away 1.272. Data: 39 Al-Fateh games / 5 Al Diriyah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 25% | Draw 36% | Al Diriyah 39%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 4.00 | Draw 2.78 | Al Diriyah 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Diriyah are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Diriyah offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.01 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fateh 40% | Al Diriyah 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fateh vs Al Diriyah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Al Fateh club stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 9 Sep 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fateh 25% | Draw 36% | Al Diriyah 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 43% | xG Al-Fateh 0.87 / Al Diriyah 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fateh attack 0.809 / def 0.845 | Al Diriyah attack 1.063 / def 0.804 | league avg home 1.338 / away 1.272 • Poisson stance: Al Diriyah (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Al-Fateh xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Al Diriyah xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fateh vs Al Diriyah kick off?
Al-Fateh vs Al Diriyah kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 9 September 2026 at Al Fateh club stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fateh vs Al Diriyah?
Al-Fateh 1 - 2 Al Diriyah.
Where is Al-Fateh vs Al Diriyah being played?
The match is being played at Al Fateh club stadium.
What competition is Al-Fateh vs Al Diriyah part of?
Al-Fateh vs Al Diriyah is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fateh vs Al Diriyah?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fateh a 25% chance of winning, Al Diriyah a 39% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Al Diriyah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fateh vs Al Diriyah?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Al-Fateh and Al Diriyah will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fateh vs Al Diriyah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al Diriyah?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Fateh and Al Diriyah in?
Al-Fateh (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-D-D-D. Al Diriyah (all comps): 2W-1D-2L in 5 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Fateh's attack rating (0.81) and Al Diriyah's defence rating (0.80), the model arrives at 0.87 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Diriyah's attack versus Al-Fateh's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Diriyah Win
25%
4.05
36%
2.74
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Al-Fateh xG
Total xG
2.01
1.14
Al Diriyah xG
4.05
25%
Home win
2.74
36%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
42%
2.39
Win to Nil
8%
12.71
16%
6.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.4 | 15.3 | 8.7 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.3 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fateh vs Al Diriyah?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Al-Fateh and Al Diriyah expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Al-Fateh and 1.14 for Al Diriyah, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fateh vs Al Diriyah?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Fateh come into this having played 5 games, going 0W 3D 2L for 0.60 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-D. It's still early in the season for Al-Fateh, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al Diriyah sit at 1.40 PPG from 5 outings (2W 1D 2L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al Diriyah, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Diriyah carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.80 PPG clear of Al-Fateh — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Fateh are averaging 0.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Al Diriyah are on 1.00 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Fateh have seen both teams score in 20% of their recent games; Al Diriyah in 20%.
Defensively: Al-Fateh have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; Al Diriyah in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fateh
Early Season
Al Diriyah
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fateh and Al Diriyah in coming into this match?
Al-Fateh have gone 0W 3D 2L in their last 5 games (0.60 PPG), while Al Diriyah have gone 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 (1.40 PPG).
Have Al-Fateh or Al Diriyah been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Fateh have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Al Diriyah in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
1 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 9 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Al-Fateh
0
Draws
1
Al Diriyah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al Diriyah?
From 1 meetings on record, Al-Fateh have won 0, Al Diriyah have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fateh and Al Diriyah last play each other?
They last met on 9 September 2026, when Al-Fateh 1-2 Al Diriyah.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fateh and Al Diriyah?
Al Diriyah have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Fateh see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Al Diriyah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Al-Fateh 20% BTTS, Al Diriyah 20%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Al-Fateh and 20% for Al Diriyah.
On the defensive side: Al-Fateh keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Al Diriyah in 40%; Al-Fateh have failed to score in 80% of games; Al Diriyah in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fateh home games / Al Diriyah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fateh play Al Diriyah?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Al-Fateh's recent matches and 20% of Al Diriyah's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Fateh vs Al Diriyah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Al-Fateh's recent games and 20% of Al Diriyah's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fateh and Al Diriyah tend to score early?
Al-Fateh have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Al Diriyah in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Diriyah edge out Al-Fateh 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Diriyah beat Al-Fateh 1-2 at Al Fateh club stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fateh 0.87 xG and Al Diriyah 1.14 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Al Diriyah outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fateh attack 0.81 / defence 0.84 against Al Diriyah attack 1.06 / defence 0.80, drawn from 39/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fateh 25% | Draw 36% | Al Diriyah 39%, with Al Diriyah to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 20% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fateh 20%, Al Diriyah 20%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 20%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fateh's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Diriyah's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Diriyah arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.60. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Fateh scored 1 against a 0.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Diriyah scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.