Al-Faisaly FC 1-3 Al-Nassr – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Nassr at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Nassr encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Al-Nassr travel to Al Majma'ah Sport City to take on Al-Faisaly FC. The game is scheduled for Friday 23 October 2026, 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Faisaly FC have gone 1W 4D 4L from 9 outings — a 0.78 PPG return. Last five: D D L W D. They are averaging 1.11 goals per game and conceding 1.89 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Faisaly FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Faisaly FC's form when playing at home: 1W 2D 2L across 5 games at Al Majma'ah Sport City this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Nassr stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Nassr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Nassr's form when playing away from home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Al-Nassr's 2.50 PPG return is 1.72 points per game ahead of Al-Faisaly FC's 0.78 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Faisaly FC register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Al-Nassr in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Al-Faisaly FC, 1 for Al-Nassr and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 15 Jan 2022, ended 0–4 with Al-Nassr winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Al-Faisaly FC in-play tendencies (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 56%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Al-Nassr in-play tendencies (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Faisaly FC 67% and Al-Nassr 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Faisaly FC 56% | Al-Nassr 78%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Faisaly FC 1.13 xG and Al-Nassr 2.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.841 / defence 1.183 | Al-Nassr attack 1.255 / defence 0.959. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.432. Al-Nassr have an above-average attack strength of 1.255 — the away xG of 2.13 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 9 Al-Faisaly FC games / 43 Al-Nassr games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Faisaly FC 17% | Draw 24% | Al-Nassr 58%. Fair-value odds: Al-Faisaly FC 5.88 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Nassr 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Al-Nassr (58%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.13 / 2.13) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Nassr as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.25 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Faisaly FC 60% | Al-Nassr 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Nassr | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Al Majma'ah Sport City • Kick-off: Friday 23 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Faisaly FC 17% | Draw 24% | Al-Nassr 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 62% | xG Al-Faisaly FC 1.13 / Al-Nassr 2.13 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.841 / def 1.183 | Al-Nassr attack 1.255 / def 0.959 | league avg home 1.396 / away 1.432 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Al-Faisaly FC xG
Expected Goals
2.13
Al-Nassr xG
62%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Nassr kick off?
Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Nassr kicked off at 13:30 on Friday 23 October 2026 at Al Majma'ah Sport City.
What was the final score in Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Nassr?
Al-Faisaly FC 1 - 3 Al-Nassr.
Where is Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Nassr being played?
The match is being played at Al Majma'ah Sport City.
What competition is Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Nassr part of?
Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Nassr is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Nassr?
Our statistical model gives Al-Faisaly FC a 17% chance of winning, Al-Nassr a 58% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Nassr?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Nassr will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Nassr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Nassr?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Faisaly FC 1W | Draws 0 | Al-Nassr 1W.
What form are Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Nassr in?
Al-Faisaly FC (all comps): 1W-4D-4L in 9 | 0.78 PPG | GF 1.11 / GA 1.89 | L5 D-D-L-W-D. Al-Nassr (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al-Faisaly FC's attack rating (0.84) and Al-Nassr's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.13 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Nassr's attack versus Al-Faisaly FC's defence, projects 2.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
17%
5.76
24%
4.10
58%
1.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
0 – 2
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Al-Faisaly FC xG
Total xG
3.25
2.13
Al-Nassr xG
5.76
17%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
1.72
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.63
38%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
12%
8.39
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
2%
48.33
19%
5.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 8.2 | 8.7 | 6.2 | 3.3 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 9.3 | 9.8 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 5.2 | 5.5 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Nassr?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Nassr expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Al-Faisaly FC and 2.13 for Al-Nassr, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Nassr?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 9 outings, Al-Faisaly FC have picked up 0.78 PPG on a 1W 4D 4L record — D-D-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Faisaly FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Nassr's form line: 7W 1D 1L from 9 games, 2.44 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-W. The sample for Al-Nassr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Nassr are the form team by 1.66 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Faisaly FC.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al-Faisaly FC have posted 1.25 PPG from 4 outings (1W 2D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 0.78 PPG overall — Al-Faisaly FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Al-Nassr have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 away games — 1.75 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.44 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al-Nassr's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Faisaly FC are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game recently; Al-Nassr are on 2.22 scored and 0.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Faisaly FC have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al-Nassr in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Faisaly FC
Blended
Al-Nassr
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Nassr in coming into this match?
Al-Faisaly FC have gone 1W 4D 4L in their last 9 games (0.78 PPG), while Al-Nassr have gone 7W 1D 1L in their last 9 (2.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Faisaly FC at home or Al-Nassr away?
Al-Nassr's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Faisaly FC at home: 1.25 PPG; Al-Nassr away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Al-Faisaly FC or Al-Nassr been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Faisaly FC have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Al-Nassr in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Nassr runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 23 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Nassr have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Jan 2022, when Al-Nassr won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Faisaly FC's record when hosting Al-Nassr specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Al-Faisaly FC
0
Draws
2
Al-Nassr
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Nassr?
From 3 meetings on record, Al-Faisaly FC have won 1, Al-Nassr have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Nassr last play each other?
They last met on 23 October 2026, when Al-Faisaly FC 1-3 Al-Nassr.
Who has won more matches between Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Nassr?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Faisaly FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al-Faisaly FC at 75%, Al-Nassr at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Al-Faisaly FC and 75% for Al-Nassr. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Faisaly FC home games / Al-Nassr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Faisaly FC play Al-Nassr?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Al-Faisaly FC's games and 75% of Al-Nassr's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Nassr usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Al-Faisaly FC's matches and 75% of Al-Nassr's.
Do Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Nassr tend to score early?
Al-Faisaly FC have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Al-Nassr in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Nassr cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Al-Faisaly FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Nassr beat Al-Faisaly FC 1-3 at Al Majma'ah Sport City, Regular Season - 11, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Faisaly FC 1.13 xG and Al-Nassr 2.13 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Al-Nassr outscored their 2.13 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.84 / defence 1.18 against Al-Nassr attack 1.25 / defence 0.96, drawn from 9/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Faisaly FC 17% | Draw 24% | Al-Nassr 58%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Faisaly FC 56%, Al-Nassr 78%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Faisaly FC's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Nassr's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.44 PPG against 0.78. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Faisaly FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.