Al-Ettifaq 2-1 Al-Nassr – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Nassr at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Ettifaq host Al-Nassr at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 14 August 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Ettifaq — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Al-Ettifaq haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Al-Ettifaq's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Al-Ettifaq are significantly better at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Nassr have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Al-Nassr haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, Al-Nassr have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al-Nassr are 0.70 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Al-Ettifaq, 1 for Al-Nassr and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 May 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Al-Ettifaq trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Al-Nassr trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 37% versus Al-Nassr 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 43% | Al-Nassr 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.10 xG and Al-Nassr 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.931 / defence 0.981 | Al-Nassr attack 1.095 / defence 0.817. League average goals — home 1.441 / away 1.284. Data: 30 Al-Ettifaq games / 30 Al-Nassr games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 30% | Draw 27% | Al-Nassr 43%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 3.33 | Draw 3.70 | Al-Nassr 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Nassr at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Nassr offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ettifaq 40% | Al-Nassr 20% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 14 Aug 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 30% | Draw 27% | Al-Nassr 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Al-Ettifaq 1.10 / Al-Nassr 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.931 / def 0.981 | Al-Nassr attack 1.095 / def 0.817 | league avg home 1.441 / away 1.284 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Al-Ettifaq xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Al-Nassr xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr kick off?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 14 August 2023 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr?
Al-Ettifaq 2 - 1 Al-Nassr.
Where is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr being played?
The match is being played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr part of?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ettifaq a 30% chance of winning, Al-Nassr a 43% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Al-Ettifaq and Al-Nassr will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Nassr?
Record (4 meetings): Al-Ettifaq 1W | Draws 2 | Al-Nassr 1W.
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Nassr in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Ettifaq's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Al-Nassr's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.10. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Nassr's attack versus Al-Ettifaq's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 0-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
30%
3.35
27%
3.73
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Al-Ettifaq xG
Total xG
2.48
1.38
Al-Nassr xG
3.35
30%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
25%
3.97
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
8%
13.31
14%
6.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 11.6 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.7 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.0 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Nassr expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq and 1.38 for Al-Nassr, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Ettifaq come into this having played 30 games, going 10W 7D 13L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-W. Al-Ettifaq haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Al-Nassr sit at 2.23 PPG from 30 outings (20W 7D 3L), a run that reads D-W-W-D-W across their last five. Al-Nassr haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Al-Nassr carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Al-Ettifaq — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al-Ettifaq's home form reads 7W 3D 5L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.60 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Nassr have taken 1.87 points per game from 15 outings (8W 4D 3L).
The Goals Picture
Al-Ettifaq are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Al-Nassr are on 2.10 scored and 0.60 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Nassr in 53% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ettifaq
Pre-Season
Al-Nassr
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Nassr in coming into this match?
Al-Ettifaq have gone 10W 7D 13L in their last 30 games (1.23 PPG), while Al-Nassr have gone 20W 7D 3L in their last 30 (2.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ettifaq at home or Al-Nassr away?
Al-Nassr's away record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ettifaq at home: 1.60 PPG; Al-Nassr away: 1.87 PPG.
Have Al-Ettifaq or Al-Nassr been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ettifaq have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Al-Nassr in 53%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Nassr runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 15 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Sep 2024, when Al-Nassr won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Ettifaq's record when hosting Al-Nassr specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Al-Ettifaq
3
Draws
4
Al-Nassr
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Nassr?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ettifaq have won 3, Al-Nassr have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ettifaq and Al-Nassr last play each other?
They last met on 15 April 2026, when Al-Nassr 1-0 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Nassr?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Al-Ettifaq 40% BTTS, Al-Nassr 20%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Al-Ettifaq) and 47% (Al-Nassr).
On the defensive side: Al-Ettifaq keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Al-Nassr in 60%; Al-Ettifaq have failed to score in 27% of games; Al-Nassr in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ettifaq home games / Al-Nassr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ettifaq play Al-Nassr?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Al-Ettifaq's recent matches and 20% of Al-Nassr's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Al-Ettifaq's recent games and 47% of Al-Nassr's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ettifaq and Al-Nassr tend to score early?
Al-Ettifaq have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al-Nassr in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Ettifaq defy the odds to beat Al-Nassr 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ettifaq beat Al-Nassr 2-1 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 1.10 xG and Al-Nassr 1.38 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Al-Ettifaq beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 0.93 / defence 0.98 against Al-Nassr attack 1.09 / defence 0.82, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 30% | Draw 27% | Al-Nassr 43%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Al-Ettifaq win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 43%, Al-Nassr 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 37%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Nassr's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.23 PPG against 1.23. Form was overturned, with Al-Ettifaq winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.93 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.