Al-Nassr 3-0 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Nassr (47%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Nassr face Al-Fateh.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Fateh make the trip to Al Awal Park at King Saud University to face Al-Nassr in Pro League, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Wednesday 31 May 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Nassr have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Nassr have posted 8W 2D 0L at Al Awal Park at King Saud University — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Al-Nassr are significantly better at Al Awal Park at King Saud University than their overall form suggests.
Al-Fateh's overall Pro League record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L L W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Al-Fateh's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Al-Nassr's favour (1.80 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al-Nassr lead 2W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Feb 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Al-Nassr goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Al-Fateh goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Nassr 49% versus Al-Fateh 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Nassr 61% | Al-Fateh 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Nassr 1.78 xG and Al-Fateh 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Nassr attack 1.350 / defence 0.870 | Al-Fateh attack 1.201 / defence 0.947. League average goals — home 1.390 / away 1.309. Al-Nassr carry an above-average attack strength of 1.350 — their λ of 1.78 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Fateh have an above-average attack strength of 1.201 — the away xG of 1.37 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 59 Al-Nassr games / 59 Al-Fateh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Nassr 47% | Draw 24% | Al-Fateh 29%. Fair-value odds: Al-Nassr 2.13 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Fateh 3.45. Al-Nassr hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.78 / 1.37) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Nassr are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Nassr if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.15 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Nassr 60% | Al-Fateh 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Al Awal Park at King Saud University • Kick-off: Wednesday 31 May 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Nassr 47% | Draw 24% | Al-Fateh 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 62% | xG Al-Nassr 1.78 / Al-Fateh 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Nassr attack 1.350 / def 0.870 | Al-Fateh attack 1.201 / def 0.947 | league avg home 1.390 / away 1.309 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Al-Nassr xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Al-Fateh xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh kicked off at 19:00 on Wednesday 31 May 2023 at Al Awal Park at King Saud University.
What was the final score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh?
Al-Nassr 3 - 0 Al-Fateh.
Where is Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at Al Awal Park at King Saud University.
What competition is Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh part of?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Al-Nassr a 47% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 29% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Al-Nassr and Al-Fateh will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Fateh?
Record (3 meetings): Al-Nassr 2W | Draws 1 | Al-Fateh 0W.
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Fateh in?
Al-Nassr (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-D. Al-Fateh (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al-Nassr's attack rating (1.35) and Al-Fateh's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.78 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Fateh's attack (1.20x) against Al-Nassr's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
47%
2.13
24%
4.24
29%
3.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Al-Nassr xG
Total xG
3.15
1.37
Al-Fateh xG
2.13
47%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
3.39
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
25%
3.93
17%
5.91
Win to Nil
12%
8.36
5%
20.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.9 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 10.5 | 7.2 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.3 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.5 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Al-Nassr and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Al-Nassr and 1.37 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Nassr's recent record stands at 38W 11D 10L from 59 games, a 2.12 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-D in the last five.
Al-Fateh, meanwhile, have gone 22W 12D 25L across 59 games — 1.32 PPG, with L-L-L-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Nassr by 0.80 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Fateh heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Al-Nassr have managed 21W 5D 3L from 29 games — 2.34 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Fateh's away record stands at 11W 6D 12L across 29 trips, a 1.34 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Nassr are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 1.58 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Nassr
Current Season
Al-Fateh
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Al-Nassr have gone 38W 11D 10L in their last 59 games (2.12 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 22W 12D 25L in their last 59 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Nassr at home or Al-Fateh away?
Al-Nassr's home record (2.34 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Nassr at home: 2.34 PPG; Al-Fateh away: 1.34 PPG.
Have Al-Nassr or Al-Fateh been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Al-Fateh in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since January 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Nassr have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Nassr won 0-5 on 25 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Nassr have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Fateh — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Al-Nassr
1
Draws
1
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Fateh?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Nassr have won 8, Al-Fateh have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Nassr and Al-Fateh last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Al-Fateh 0-2 Al-Nassr.
Who has won more matches between Al-Nassr and Al-Fateh?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Nassr 62%, Al-Fateh 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Al-Nassr and 55% for Al-Fateh. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Nassr keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Al-Fateh in 31%; Al-Fateh in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Nassr home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Nassr play Al-Fateh?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Al-Nassr's recent matches and 45% of Al-Fateh's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Al-Nassr's matches and 55% of Al-Fateh's.
Do Al-Nassr and Al-Fateh tend to score early?
Al-Nassr have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Al-Fateh in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Nassr run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Al-Fateh.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Nassr beat Al-Fateh 3-0 at Al Awal Park at King Saud University, Regular Season - 30, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Nassr 1.78 xG and Al-Fateh 1.37 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Al-Nassr beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Fateh landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Nassr attack 1.35 / defence 0.87 against Al-Fateh attack 1.20 / defence 0.95, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Nassr 47% | Draw 24% | Al-Fateh 29%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Nassr 61%, Al-Fateh 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Nassr's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al-Fateh's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 1.32. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.14 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.34 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.