Al-Ettifaq 0-3 Al Diriyah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ettifaq at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Ettifaq vs Al Diriyah fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Ettifaq and Al Diriyah meet at EGO Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 29 August 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Ettifaq's overall Pro League record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al-Ettifaq have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Ettifaq have posted 5W 2D 3L at EGO Stadium — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al Diriyah have collected 1.33 PPG across 3 Pro League outings this season: 1W 1D 1L. Last five: L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.67 per game is modest, conceding 0.67 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Al Diriyah have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.33 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
Al-Ettifaq goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%.
Al Diriyah goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 67% versus Al Diriyah 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al-Ettifaq 67% | Al Diriyah 0%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.67 xG and Al Diriyah 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 1.271 / defence 1.134 | Al Diriyah attack 0.822 / defence 0.936. League average goals — home 1.403 / away 1.430. Al-Ettifaq carry an above-average attack strength of 1.271 — their λ of 1.67 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 37 Al-Ettifaq games / 3 Al Diriyah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 44% | Draw 26% | Al Diriyah 29%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | Al Diriyah 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.67 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ettifaq at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ettifaq if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.00 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Al-Ettifaq 70% | Al Diriyah 33%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ettifaq vs Al Diriyah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: EGO Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Aug 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 44% | Draw 26% | Al Diriyah 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 61% | xG Al-Ettifaq 1.67 / Al Diriyah 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ettifaq attack 1.271 / def 1.134 | Al Diriyah attack 0.822 / def 0.936 | league avg home 1.403 / away 1.430 • Poisson stance: Al-Ettifaq (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Al-Ettifaq xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Al Diriyah xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ettifaq vs Al Diriyah kick off?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al Diriyah kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 29 August 2026 at EGO Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al Diriyah?
Al-Ettifaq 0 - 3 Al Diriyah.
Where is Al-Ettifaq vs Al Diriyah being played?
The match is being played at EGO Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ettifaq vs Al Diriyah part of?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al Diriyah is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ettifaq vs Al Diriyah?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ettifaq a 44% chance of winning, Al Diriyah a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al-Ettifaq the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al Diriyah?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Al-Ettifaq and Al Diriyah will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ettifaq vs Al Diriyah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al Diriyah?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al Diriyah in?
Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Al Diriyah (all comps): 1W-1D-1L in 3 | 1.33 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 0.67 | L5 L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al-Ettifaq's attacking strength (1.27x league average) is weighed against Al Diriyah's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.67. Flip it around — Al Diriyah's attack (0.82x) against Al-Ettifaq's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 37/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ettifaq Win
44%
2.26
26%
3.80
29%
3.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Al-Ettifaq xG
Total xG
3.00
1.33
Al Diriyah xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
3.39
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
26%
3.79
19%
5.31
Win to Nil
12%
8.58
6%
18.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 6.6 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.0 | 7.4 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.2 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.1 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ettifaq vs Al Diriyah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Al-Ettifaq and Al Diriyah expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq and 1.33 for Al Diriyah, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ettifaq vs Al Diriyah?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Ettifaq come into this having played 3 games, going 2W 0D 1L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al Diriyah sit at 1.33 PPG from 3 outings (1W 1D 1L), a run that reads L-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al Diriyah, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Ettifaq carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.67 PPG clear of Al Diriyah — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Ettifaq are averaging 2.33 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Al Diriyah are on 0.67 scored and 0.67 conceded. Al-Ettifaq's scoring rate against Al Diriyah's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ettifaq have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 3 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ettifaq
Early Season
Al Diriyah
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al Diriyah in coming into this match?
Al-Ettifaq have gone 2W 0D 1L in their last 3 games (2.00 PPG), while Al Diriyah have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 (1.33 PPG).
Have Al-Ettifaq or Al Diriyah been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ettifaq have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Al Diriyah in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 1 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Al-Ettifaq
0
Draws
1
Al Diriyah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al Diriyah?
From 1 meetings on record, Al-Ettifaq have won 0, Al Diriyah have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ettifaq and Al Diriyah last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Al-Ettifaq 0-3 Al Diriyah.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ettifaq and Al Diriyah?
Al Diriyah have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al Diriyah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ettifaq 67%, Al Diriyah 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 67% for Al-Ettifaq and 0% for Al Diriyah.
On the defensive side: Al-Ettifaq keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Al Diriyah in 33%; Al Diriyah in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ettifaq home games / Al Diriyah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ettifaq play Al Diriyah?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Al-Ettifaq's recent matches and 33% of Al Diriyah's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ettifaq vs Al Diriyah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Al-Ettifaq's recent games and 0% of Al Diriyah's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ettifaq and Al Diriyah tend to score early?
Al-Ettifaq have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al Diriyah in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al Diriyah run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Al-Ettifaq.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Diriyah beat Al-Ettifaq 0-3 at EGO Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 1.67 xG and Al Diriyah 1.33 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Al-Ettifaq fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Al Diriyah outscored their 1.33 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 1.27 / defence 1.13 against Al Diriyah attack 0.82 / defence 0.94, drawn from 37/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 44% | Draw 26% | Al Diriyah 29%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Al Diriyah win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 67%, Al Diriyah 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Diriyah's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ettifaq arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.33. Form was overturned, with Al Diriyah winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Ettifaq managed 0 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Diriyah scored 3 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.