Al Diriyah vs Al-Hazm – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Hazm at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Diriyah vs Al-Hazm fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al Diriyah host Al-Hazm at Prince Turki bin Abdul Aziz Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 11 February 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al Diriyah — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al Diriyah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Diriyah at Prince Turki bin Abdul Aziz Stadium this season: 1W 3D 3L from 7 home games — 0.86 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.57 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Hazm stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hazm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Hazm have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Al Diriyah carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.20 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Al Diriyah, 0 for Al-Hazm and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2026, ended 1–0 with Al Diriyah winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Al Diriyah trading profile (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Al-Hazm trading profile (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Diriyah 33% versus Al-Hazm 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Diriyah 33% | Al-Hazm 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Diriyah 1.04 xG and Al-Hazm 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Diriyah attack 0.591 / defence 0.904 | Al-Hazm attack 0.881 / defence 1.167. League average goals — home 1.505 / away 1.475. Al Diriyah's attack strength of 0.591 is below the league average — the 1.04 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 12 Al Diriyah games / 46 Al-Hazm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Diriyah 29% | Draw 34% | Al-Hazm 36%. Fair-value odds: Al Diriyah 3.45 | Draw 2.94 | Al-Hazm 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Hazm are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al Diriyah (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Hazm offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.21 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Al Diriyah 43% | Al-Hazm 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Diriyah vs Al-Hazm | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Prince Turki bin Abdul Aziz Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 11 Feb 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Diriyah 29% | Draw 34% | Al-Hazm 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 47% | xG Al Diriyah 1.04 / Al-Hazm 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Al Diriyah attack 0.591 / def 0.904 | Al-Hazm attack 0.881 / def 1.167 | league avg home 1.505 / away 1.475 • Poisson stance: Al-Hazm (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Al Diriyah xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Al-Hazm xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Diriyah vs Al-Hazm kick off?
Al Diriyah vs Al-Hazm is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Thursday 11 February 2027 at Prince Turki bin Abdul Aziz Stadium.
Where is Al Diriyah vs Al-Hazm being played?
The match is being played at Prince Turki bin Abdul Aziz Stadium.
What competition is Al Diriyah vs Al-Hazm part of?
Al Diriyah vs Al-Hazm is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Diriyah vs Al-Hazm?
Our statistical model gives Al Diriyah a 29% chance of winning, Al-Hazm a 36% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Al-Hazm the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Diriyah vs Al-Hazm?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Al Diriyah and Al-Hazm will score (BTTS).
Will Al Diriyah vs Al-Hazm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Diriyah and Al-Hazm?
Record (1 meetings): Al Diriyah 1W | Draws 0 | Al-Hazm 0W.
What form are Al Diriyah and Al-Hazm in?
Al Diriyah (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. Al-Hazm (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al Diriyah's attack at 0.59x the league average against Al-Hazm's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.04 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Hazm's attack versus Al Diriyah's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 0-1 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hazm Win
29%
3.40
34%
2.92
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Al Diriyah xG
Total xG
2.21
1.18
Al-Hazm xG
3.40
29%
Home win
2.92
34%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
35%
2.82
Win to Nil
9%
11.03
13%
7.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 12.8 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.3 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 6.9 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Diriyah vs Al-Hazm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Al Diriyah and Al-Hazm expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Al Diriyah and 1.18 for Al-Hazm, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Diriyah vs Al-Hazm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 12 outings, Al Diriyah have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 4W 3D 5L record — L-D-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Al Diriyah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Hazm's form line: 2W 4D 6L from 12 games, 0.83 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-L. The sample for Al-Hazm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al Diriyah are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Hazm.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al Diriyah have posted 1.00 PPG from 6 outings (1W 3D 2L).
On the road, Al-Hazm have gone 1W 1D 4L from 6 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Diriyah are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Al-Hazm are on 1.17 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Hazm in 67%.
Last 12 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Diriyah
Blended
Al-Hazm
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Diriyah and Al-Hazm in coming into this match?
Al Diriyah have gone 4W 3D 5L in their last 12 games (1.25 PPG), while Al-Hazm have gone 2W 4D 6L in their last 12 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Diriyah at home or Al-Hazm away?
Al Diriyah's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Diriyah at home: 1.00 PPG; Al-Hazm away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Al Diriyah or Al-Hazm been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Diriyah have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Al-Hazm in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
1 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 21 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Al Diriyah
0
Draws
0
Al-Hazm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Diriyah and Al-Hazm?
From 1 meetings on record, Al Diriyah have won 1, Al-Hazm have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Diriyah and Al-Hazm last play each other?
They last met on 21 August 2026, when Al-Hazm 0-1 Al Diriyah.
Who has won more matches between Al Diriyah and Al-Hazm?
Al Diriyah have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Diriyah see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Al-Hazm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Diriyah 50%, Al-Hazm 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 17% (Al Diriyah) and 67% (Al-Hazm).
On the defensive side: Al Diriyah keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Al Diriyah have failed to score in 33% of games; Al-Hazm in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Diriyah home games / Al-Hazm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Diriyah play Al-Hazm?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Al Diriyah's games and 67% of Al-Hazm's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Diriyah vs Al-Hazm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Al Diriyah's recent games and 67% of Al-Hazm's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Diriyah and Al-Hazm tend to score early?
Al Diriyah have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Al-Hazm in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.