Al-Ahli Jeddah 4-1 Damac – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 36% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Damac encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

Al-Ahli Jeddah welcome Damac to Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium in Pro League (matchday 30). Kick-off is Thursday 2 May 2024 at 20:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Al-Ahli Jeddah stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Al-Ahli Jeddah's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Across their last 10 games, Damac have recorded 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Damac away from home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

Al-Ahli Jeddah carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 0, Damac 0, with 3 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 9 Nov 2023, ended Al-Ahli Jeddah 2–2 Damac — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Al-Ahli Jeddah in-play tendencies (last 28 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.

Damac in-play tendencies (last 28 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ahli Jeddah 50% versus Damac 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ahli Jeddah 57% | Damac 46%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ahli Jeddah 0.96 xG and Damac 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.791 / defence 0.718 | Damac attack 0.859 / defence 0.859. League average goals — home 1.410 / away 1.399. Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack rating of 0.791 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.96. Al-Ahli Jeddah have a tight defence (rating 0.718), which is pulling Damac's projected output down. Data: built from Al-Ahli Jeddah's last 28 games and Damac's last 59.

Result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 36% | Draw 34% | Damac 30%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.81 | Draw 2.93 | Damac 3.29. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS Yes probability 36% | Total xG 1.82. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.82 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 64% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ahli Jeddah offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 1.82 combined xG gives a 73% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Ahli Jeddah's last 10 home games and Damac's last 10 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Ahli Jeddah 30% (last 10 home games) | Damac 50% (last 10 away games).

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