Damac 0-1 Al Taawon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Taawon at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Damac vs Al Taawon encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Damac and Al Taawon meet at Dhamak Club Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 29. This fixture gets under way on Friday 26 April 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Damac's overall Pro League record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Damac at Dhamak Club Stadium this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Damac are significantly better at Dhamak Club Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al Taawon have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: D W W D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Al Taawon's form when playing away from home: 4W 5D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Al Taawon are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Damac, 2 for Al Taawon and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Damac — key trading statistics (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Al Taawon — key trading statistics (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Damac 53% versus Al Taawon 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Damac 48% | Al Taawon 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Damac 1.05 xG and Al Taawon 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Damac attack 0.863 / defence 0.845 | Al Taawon attack 0.971 / defence 0.864. League average goals — home 1.412 / away 1.415. Data: 58 Damac games / 58 Al Taawon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Damac 32% | Draw 31% | Al Taawon 37%. Fair-value odds: Damac 3.12 | Draw 3.23 | Al Taawon 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Taawon are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Taawon if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.21 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Damac 30% | Al Taawon 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Damac vs Al Taawon | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Dhamak Club Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 26 Apr 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Damac 32% | Draw 31% | Al Taawon 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 46% | xG Damac 1.05 / Al Taawon 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Damac attack 0.863 / def 0.845 | Al Taawon attack 0.971 / def 0.864 | league avg home 1.412 / away 1.415 • Poisson stance: Al Taawon (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Damac xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Al Taawon xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Damac vs Al Taawon kick off?
Damac vs Al Taawon kicked off at 16:00 on Friday 26 April 2024 at Dhamak Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Damac vs Al Taawon?
Damac 0 - 1 Al Taawon.
Where is Damac vs Al Taawon being played?
The match is being played at Dhamak Club Stadium.
What competition is Damac vs Al Taawon part of?
Damac vs Al Taawon is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Damac vs Al Taawon?
Our statistical model gives Damac a 32% chance of winning, Al Taawon a 37% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Al Taawon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Damac vs Al Taawon?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Damac and Al Taawon will score (BTTS).
Will Damac vs Al Taawon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al Taawon?
Record (5 meetings): Damac 0W | Draws 3 | Al Taawon 2W.
What form are Damac and Al Taawon in?
Damac (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. Al Taawon (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Damac's attack at 0.86x the league average against Al Taawon's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 1.05 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al Taawon's attack (0.97x) against Damac's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 0-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taawon Win
32%
3.13
31%
3.26
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Damac xG
Total xG
2.21
1.16
Al Taawon xG
3.13
32%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
10%
9.99
13%
7.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 12.7 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.4 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.0 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Damac vs Al Taawon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Damac and Al Taawon expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Damac and 1.16 for Al Taawon, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Damac vs Al Taawon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 58 outings, Damac have picked up 1.28 PPG on a 19W 17D 22L record — L-L-D-L-W across the most recent five.
Al Taawon's form line: 29W 16D 13L from 58 games, 1.78 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-D.
Put side by side, Al Taawon are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Damac.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Damac have posted 1.45 PPG from 29 outings (11W 9D 9L).
On the road, Al Taawon have gone 15W 9D 5L from 29 away games — 1.86 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Taawon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Damac are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Al Taawon are on 1.60 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Taawon in 64%.
Last 58 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Damac
Current Season
Al Taawon
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Damac and Al Taawon in coming into this match?
Damac have gone 19W 17D 22L in their last 58 games (1.28 PPG), while Al Taawon have gone 29W 16D 13L in their last 58 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Damac at home or Al Taawon away?
Al Taawon's away record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Damac at home: 1.45 PPG; Al Taawon away: 1.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 12 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Taawon won 6-1 on 19 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Damac have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al Taawon — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Damac
4
Draws
5
Al Taawon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al Taawon?
From 10 meetings on record, Damac have won 1, Al Taawon have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Damac and Al Taawon last play each other?
They last met on 12 February 2026, when Damac 2-1 Al Taawon.
Who has won more matches between Damac and Al Taawon?
Al Taawon have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Damac 52%, Al Taawon 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Damac) and 45% (Al Taawon).
On the defensive side: Al Taawon in 34%; Damac have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Damac home games / Al Taawon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Damac play Al Taawon?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Damac's games and 59% of Al Taawon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Damac vs Al Taawon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Damac's recent games and 45% of Al Taawon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Damac and Al Taawon tend to score early?
Damac have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Al Taawon in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Taawon edge out Damac 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Taawon beat Damac 0-1 at Dhamak Club Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Damac 1.05 xG and Al Taawon 1.16 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Damac fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Damac attack 0.86 / defence 0.84 against Al Taawon attack 0.97 / defence 0.86, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Damac 32% | Draw 31% | Al Taawon 37%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Damac 48%, Al Taawon 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Damac's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al Taawon's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Taawon arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.28. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Damac (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward. Al Taawon (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.