Al-Ahli Jeddah 1-1 Al Okhdood – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Okhdood encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al Okhdood make the trip to King Abdullah Sports City to face Al-Ahli Jeddah in Pro League, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Friday 25 October 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Al-Ahli Jeddah (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Al-Ahli Jeddah have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Ahli Jeddah at King Abdullah Sports City this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al Okhdood have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Al Okhdood have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Okhdood have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Al-Ahli Jeddah's 1.70 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Al Okhdood's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Al-Ahli Jeddah, 1 for Al Okhdood and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Feb 2024, ended 2–3 with Al Okhdood winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Al-Ahli Jeddah goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Al Okhdood goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ahli Jeddah 51% versus Al Okhdood 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ahli Jeddah 56% | Al Okhdood 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.99 xG and Al Okhdood 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.191 / defence 0.924 | Al Okhdood attack 1.052 / defence 1.154. League average goals — home 1.447 / away 1.354. Data: 41 Al-Ahli Jeddah games / 41 Al Okhdood games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 53% | Draw 22% | Al Okhdood 25%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.89 | Draw 4.55 | Al Okhdood 4.00. Al-Ahli Jeddah hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.99 / 1.32) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ahli Jeddah if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.31 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ahli Jeddah 60% | Al Okhdood 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Okhdood | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Friday 25 Oct 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 53% | Draw 22% | Al Okhdood 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 63% | xG Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.99 / Al Okhdood 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.191 / def 0.924 | Al Okhdood attack 1.052 / def 1.154 | league avg home 1.447 / away 1.354 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.99
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Al Okhdood xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Okhdood kick off?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Okhdood kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 25 October 2024 at King Abdullah Sports City.
What was the final score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Okhdood?
Al-Ahli Jeddah 1 - 1 Al Okhdood.
Where is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Okhdood being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Okhdood part of?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Okhdood is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Okhdood?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ahli Jeddah a 53% chance of winning, Al Okhdood a 25% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Okhdood?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Okhdood will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Okhdood have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Okhdood?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Ahli Jeddah 1W | Draws 0 | Al Okhdood 1W.
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Okhdood in?
Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-L-L-W. Al Okhdood (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al-Ahli Jeddah's attacking strength (1.19x league average) is weighed against Al Okhdood's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.99. Flip it around — Al Okhdood's attack (1.05x) against Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
53%
1.89
22%
4.60
25%
3.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.99
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Total xG
3.31
1.32
Al Okhdood xG
1.89
53%
Home win
4.60
22%
Draw
3.97
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
27%
3.73
14%
7.31
Win to Nil
14%
7.04
3%
28.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 4.8 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 9.6 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.6 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 6.3 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Okhdood?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Okhdood expected to score?
The model projects 1.99 expected goals for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 1.32 for Al Okhdood, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Okhdood?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Ahli Jeddah come into this having played 41 games, going 22W 9D 10L for 1.83 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al Okhdood sit at 0.90 PPG from 41 outings (10W 7D 24L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al Okhdood, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Ahli Jeddah carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.93 PPG clear of Al Okhdood — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Al-Ahli Jeddah's home form reads 13W 4D 3L across 20 games on their own ground, a 2.15 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Okhdood have taken 0.85 points per game from 20 outings (4W 5D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ahli Jeddah come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Ahli Jeddah are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Al Okhdood are on 0.95 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Early Season
Al Okhdood
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Okhdood in coming into this match?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 22W 9D 10L in their last 41 games (1.83 PPG), while Al Okhdood have gone 10W 7D 24L in their last 41 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home or Al Okhdood away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's home record (2.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home: 2.15 PPG; Al Okhdood away: 0.85 PPG.
Have Al-Ahli Jeddah or Al Okhdood been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Al Okhdood in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 3 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Ahli Jeddah have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ahli Jeddah won 4-0 on 3 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al Okhdood — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Al-Ahli Jeddah
1
Draws
2
Al Okhdood
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Okhdood?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 3, Al Okhdood have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Okhdood last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Al-Ahli Jeddah 4-0 Al Okhdood.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Okhdood?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time.
Al Okhdood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ahli Jeddah 45%, Al Okhdood 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Al-Ahli Jeddah) and 50% (Al Okhdood).
On the defensive side: Al-Ahli Jeddah keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Al Okhdood in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ahli Jeddah home games / Al Okhdood away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ahli Jeddah play Al Okhdood?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's recent matches and 45% of Al Okhdood's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Okhdood usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's recent games and 50% of Al Okhdood's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Okhdood tend to score early?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Al Okhdood in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Okhdood share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Okhdood finished level at 1-1 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 8, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.99 xG and Al Okhdood 1.32 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Al-Ahli Jeddah fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.19 / defence 0.92 against Al Okhdood attack 1.05 / defence 1.15, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ahli Jeddah 53% | Draw 22% | Al Okhdood 25%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ahli Jeddah 56%, Al Okhdood 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Okhdood's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ahli Jeddah arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 0.90. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.