Al-Ahli Jeddah 1-2 Al-Hilal Saudi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC (47%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Ahli Jeddah face Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Ahli Jeddah host Al-Hilal Saudi FC at King Abdullah Sports City in Pro League, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 5 October 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Ahli Jeddah — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Al-Ahli Jeddah have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at King Abdullah Sports City, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Al-Ahli Jeddah are significantly better at King Abdullah Sports City than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC stand at 9W 1D 0L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 9W 1D 0L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al-Hilal Saudi FC — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.80 vs 1.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better historical record — 3 wins from 4 previous contests against 0 for Al-Ahli Jeddah.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 May 2024, ended 1–2 with Al-Hilal Saudi FC winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 3 of 4 previous encounters, and at 3.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Al-Ahli Jeddah in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ahli Jeddah 51% versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ahli Jeddah 54% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.45 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.255 / defence 0.936 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.600 / defence 0.792. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.220. Al-Ahli Jeddah carry an above-average attack strength of 1.255 — their λ of 1.45 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence strength of 0.792 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.600 — the away xG of 1.83 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 39 Al-Ahli Jeddah games / 39 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 31% | Draw 23% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 47%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ahli Jeddah 3.23 | Draw 4.35 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.13. Al-Hilal Saudi FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.45 / 1.83) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Hilal Saudi FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.28 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ahli Jeddah 50% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Oct 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 31% | Draw 23% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 64% | xG Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.45 / Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.83 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.255 / def 0.936 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.600 / def 0.792 | league avg home 1.459 / away 1.220 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Expected Goals
1.83
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kick off?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 5 October 2024 at King Abdullah Sports City.
What was the final score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Ahli Jeddah 1 - 2 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Where is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC part of?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ahli Jeddah a 31% chance of winning, Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 47% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hilal Saudi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Record (4 meetings): Al-Ahli Jeddah 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3W.
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in?
Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al-Ahli Jeddah's attacking strength (1.25x league average) is weighed against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defensive record (0.79x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.45. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack versus Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence, projects 1.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
31%
3.25
23%
4.40
47%
2.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
2 – 1
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Total xG
3.28
1.83
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
3.25
31%
Home win
4.40
23%
Draw
2.15
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.79
Clean Sheet
16%
6.21
23%
4.26
Win to Nil
5%
20.21
11%
9.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 6.9 | 6.3 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 10.0 | 9.1 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.3 | 6.6 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hilal Saudi FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 1.83 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Ahli Jeddah's recent record stands at 21W 9D 9L from 39 games, a 1.85 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC, meanwhile, have gone 36W 3D 0L across 39 games — 2.85 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Ahli Jeddah heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al-Ahli Jeddah have managed 13W 4D 2L from 19 games — 2.26 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.85 PPG overall — Al-Ahli Jeddah are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record stands at 17W 2D 0L across 19 trips, a 2.79 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Ahli Jeddah are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Al-Hilal Saudi FC are on 3.00 scored and 0.72 conceded. Al-Ahli Jeddah's scoring rate against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games; Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Early Season
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in coming into this match?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 21W 9D 9L in their last 39 games (1.85 PPG), while Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 36W 3D 0L in their last 39 (2.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home or Al-Hilal Saudi FC away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record (2.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home: 2.26 PPG; Al-Hilal Saudi FC away: 2.79 PPG.
Have Al-Ahli Jeddah or Al-Hilal Saudi FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 2 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's record when hosting Al-Hilal Saudi FC specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Al-Ahli Jeddah
3
Draws
4
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 1, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hilal Saudi FC last play each other?
They last met on 2 February 2026, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC 0-0 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 68% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ahli Jeddah 42%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Al-Ahli Jeddah) and 74% (Al-Hilal Saudi FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ahli Jeddah keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ahli Jeddah home games / Al-Hilal Saudi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ahli Jeddah play Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's recent matches and 53% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 42% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's matches and 74% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's.
Do Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hilal Saudi FC tend to score early?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Hilal Saudi FC edge out Al-Ahli Jeddah 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al-Ahli Jeddah 1-2 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 6, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.45 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.83 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.25 / defence 0.94 against Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.60 / defence 0.79, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ahli Jeddah 31% | Draw 23% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 47%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ahli Jeddah 54%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 72%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.85 PPG against 1.85. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.84 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.63 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 3.05 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.