Zenit 2-1 Dinamo Makhachkala – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Zenit at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Zenit vs Dinamo Makhachkala encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Zenit host Dinamo Makhachkala at Gazprom Arena in Premier League, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 2 November 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Zenit — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: W L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Zenit, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zenit's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Gazprom Arena this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Gazprom Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Premier League games this season, Dinamo Makhachkala have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Dinamo Makhachkala, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Dinamo Makhachkala have gone 1W 4D 2L from 7 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.43 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 7 away games (43%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Zenit are in the better shape of the two on current Premier League data — 1.10 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Zenit's 30% rate and Dinamo Makhachkala's 29% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
In-Play Data
Zenit trading profile (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 69% of the time.
Dinamo Makhachkala trading profile (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (away games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Zenit 23% | Dinamo Makhachkala 31%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Zenit 46% | Dinamo Makhachkala 0%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zenit 1.27 xG and Dinamo Makhachkala 0.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zenit attack 1.069 / defence 0.660 | Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.611 / defence 0.921. League average goals — home 1.287 / away 1.320. Zenit's defence rating of 0.660 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 Zenit games / 13 Dinamo Makhachkala games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zenit 52% | Draw 36% | Dinamo Makhachkala 13%. Fair-value odds: Zenit 1.92 | Draw 2.78 | Dinamo Makhachkala 7.69. Zenit hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (36%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.80. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.80 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Dinamo Makhachkala's lower xG of 0.53 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Zenit at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zenit offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.80 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 27% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 33%. Form rates corroborate: Zenit 30% | Dinamo Makhachkala 29% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zenit vs Dinamo Makhachkala | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Gazprom Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Nov 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zenit 52% | Draw 36% | Dinamo Makhachkala 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 33% | xG Zenit 1.27 / Dinamo Makhachkala 0.53 • Poisson strength factors: Zenit attack 1.069 / def 0.660 | Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.611 / def 0.921 | league avg home 1.287 / away 1.320 • Poisson stance: Zenit (52%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Zenit xG
Expected Goals
0.53
Dinamo Makhachkala xG
33%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zenit vs Dinamo Makhachkala kick off?
Zenit vs Dinamo Makhachkala kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 2 November 2024 at Gazprom Arena.
What was the final score in Zenit vs Dinamo Makhachkala?
Zenit 2 - 1 Dinamo Makhachkala.
Where is Zenit vs Dinamo Makhachkala being played?
The match is being played at Gazprom Arena.
What competition is Zenit vs Dinamo Makhachkala part of?
Zenit vs Dinamo Makhachkala is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Zenit vs Dinamo Makhachkala?
Our statistical model gives Zenit a 52% chance of winning, Dinamo Makhachkala a 13% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Zenit the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zenit vs Dinamo Makhachkala?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Zenit and Dinamo Makhachkala will score (BTTS).
Will Zenit vs Dinamo Makhachkala have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zenit and Dinamo Makhachkala?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Zenit and Dinamo Makhachkala in?
Zenit (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Dinamo Makhachkala (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-D-L-D.
What do the betting odds say about Zenit vs Dinamo Makhachkala?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Zenit's attack rating (1.07) and Dinamo Makhachkala's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Dinamo Makhachkala's attack versus Zenit's defence, projects 0.53 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 19.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (18.0%), 2-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zenit Win
52%
1.94
36%
2.79
13%
7.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
21.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.5%
Draw
2 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Zenit xG
Total xG
1.80
0.53
Dinamo Makhachkala xG
1.94
52%
Home win
2.79
36%
Draw
7.98
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.06
67%
BTTS No
1.49
Clean Sheet
59%
1.70
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
30%
3.30
4%
28.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.5 | 8.8 | 2.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 21.0 | 11.2 | 3.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.3 | 7.1 | 1.9 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 3 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zenit vs Dinamo Makhachkala?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.5%.
How many goals are Zenit and Dinamo Makhachkala expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Zenit and 0.53 for Dinamo Makhachkala, a combined total of 1.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Zenit vs Dinamo Makhachkala?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Zenit come into this having played 13 games, going 9W 3D 1L for 2.31 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-D. The sample for Zenit is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dinamo Makhachkala sit at 0.92 PPG from 13 outings (2W 6D 5L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Dinamo Makhachkala is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zenit carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.39 PPG clear of Dinamo Makhachkala — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Zenit's home form reads 4W 2D 0L across 6 games on their own ground, a 2.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Dinamo Makhachkala have taken 1.00 points per game from 6 outings (1W 3D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zenit come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Zenit are averaging 2.23 goals scored and 0.38 conceded per game recently; Dinamo Makhachkala are on 0.46 scored and 0.85 conceded. Zenit's scoring rate against Dinamo Makhachkala's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Zenit have seen both teams score in 23% of their recent games.
Defensively: Zenit have kept a clean sheet in 69% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zenit
Blended
Dinamo Makhachkala
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zenit and Dinamo Makhachkala in coming into this match?
Zenit have gone 9W 3D 1L in their last 13 games (2.31 PPG), while Dinamo Makhachkala have gone 2W 6D 5L in their last 13 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zenit at home or Dinamo Makhachkala away?
Zenit's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zenit at home: 2.33 PPG; Dinamo Makhachkala away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Zenit or Dinamo Makhachkala been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zenit have kept a clean sheet in 69% of their recent games, Dinamo Makhachkala in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Zenit and Dinamo Makhachkala runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Zenit go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Aug 2025, when Zenit won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Zenit's record when hosting Dinamo Makhachkala specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Zenit
0
Draws
0
Dinamo Makhachkala
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zenit and Dinamo Makhachkala?
From 4 meetings on record, Zenit have won 4, Dinamo Makhachkala have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Zenit and Dinamo Makhachkala last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Dinamo Makhachkala 0-1 Zenit.
Who has won more matches between Zenit and Dinamo Makhachkala?
Zenit have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Zenit see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Dinamo Makhachkala are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Zenit 33% BTTS, Dinamo Makhachkala 17%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Zenit and 0% for Dinamo Makhachkala.
On the defensive side: Zenit keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Dinamo Makhachkala in 50%; Dinamo Makhachkala in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zenit home games / Dinamo Makhachkala away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zenit play Dinamo Makhachkala?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Zenit's recent matches and 17% of Dinamo Makhachkala's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Zenit vs Dinamo Makhachkala usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Zenit's recent games and 0% of Dinamo Makhachkala's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zenit and Dinamo Makhachkala tend to score early?
Zenit have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Dinamo Makhachkala in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Zenit edge out Dinamo Makhachkala 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zenit beat Dinamo Makhachkala 2-1 at Gazprom Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zenit 1.27 xG and Dinamo Makhachkala 0.53 xG, a combined 1.80. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zenit attack 1.07 / defence 0.66 against Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.61 / defence 0.92, drawn from 43/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zenit 52% | Draw 36% | Dinamo Makhachkala 13%, with Zenit to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 23% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zenit 46%, Dinamo Makhachkala 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 27%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zenit's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 23% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 69% of the time, and conceded here.
Dinamo Makhachkala's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Zenit arrived the stronger side — 2.31 PPG against 0.92. That form edge translated into the three points. Dinamo Makhachkala (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.