Ural 2-1 Akhmat – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ural at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ural vs Akhmat fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ural host Akhmat at Ekaterinburg Arena in Premier League, Relegation Round. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 28 May 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Ural — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D D L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Ural haven't played a Premier League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at Ekaterinburg Arena, Ural have gone 3W 1D 6L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Premier League games this season, Akhmat have recorded 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Akhmat's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Ural have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Ural register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Akhmat in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Akhmat have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 6 encounters against Ural's 0 victories.
The last 6 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.3 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 2 Mar 2024, ended 0–1 with Akhmat winning.
It is worth noting that Akhmat have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Ural in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Akhmat in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ural 50% versus Akhmat 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ural 50% | Akhmat 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ural 1.80 xG and Akhmat 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ural attack 1.009 / defence 1.010 | Akhmat attack 0.796 / defence 1.155. League average goals — home 1.546 / away 1.097. Data: 30 Ural games / 60 Akhmat games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ural 57% | Draw 27% | Akhmat 16%. Fair-value odds: Ural 1.75 | Draw 3.70 | Akhmat 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Ural (57%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Akhmat lead the H2H ledger, but Ural carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Ural are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Ural 70% | Akhmat 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ural vs Akhmat | Competition: Premier League, Relegation Round | Venue: Ekaterinburg Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 28 May 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ural 57% | Draw 27% | Akhmat 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 51% | xG Ural 1.80 / Akhmat 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Ural attack 1.009 / def 1.010 | Akhmat attack 0.796 / def 1.155 | league avg home 1.546 / away 1.097 • Poisson stance: Ural (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Ural xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Akhmat xG
51%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ural vs Akhmat kick off?
Ural vs Akhmat kicked off at 15:00 on Wednesday 28 May 2025 at Ekaterinburg Arena.
What was the final score in Ural vs Akhmat?
Ural 2 - 1 Akhmat.
Where is Ural vs Akhmat being played?
The match is being played at Ekaterinburg Arena.
What competition is Ural vs Akhmat part of?
Ural vs Akhmat is a Relegation Round fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Ural vs Akhmat?
Our statistical model gives Ural a 57% chance of winning, Akhmat a 16% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Ural the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ural vs Akhmat?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Ural and Akhmat will score (BTTS).
Will Ural vs Akhmat have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ural and Akhmat?
Record (6 meetings): Ural 0W | Draws 1 | Akhmat 5W.
What form are Ural and Akhmat in?
Ural (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-L-W. Akhmat (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Ural's attack at 1.01x the league average against Akhmat's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.80 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Akhmat's attack versus Ural's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ural Win
57%
1.76
27%
3.66
16%
6.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Ural xG
Total xG
2.68
0.88
Akhmat xG
1.76
57%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
6.32
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
41%
2.41
17%
6.06
Win to Nil
24%
4.24
3%
38.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.3 | 10.9 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.7 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ural vs Akhmat?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Ural and Akhmat expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Ural and 0.88 for Akhmat, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Ural vs Akhmat?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 32 outings, Ural have picked up 1.03 PPG on a 8W 9D 15L record — D-D-L-L-W across the most recent five. Ural haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Akhmat's form line: 4W 13D 15L from 32 games, 0.78 PPG, last five L-D-L-D-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ural on 1.03 PPG, Akhmat on 0.78. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Ural have posted 1.19 PPG from 16 outings (5W 4D 7L).
On the road, Akhmat have gone 1W 5D 10L from 16 away games — 0.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ural come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ural are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Akhmat are on 0.88 scored and 1.72 conceded.
Last 32 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ural
Pre-Season
Akhmat
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ural and Akhmat in coming into this match?
Ural have gone 8W 9D 15L in their last 32 games (1.03 PPG), while Akhmat have gone 4W 13D 15L in their last 32 (0.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ural at home or Akhmat away?
Ural's home record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ural at home: 1.19 PPG; Akhmat away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ural and Akhmat runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ural's record when hosting Akhmat specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Ural
1
Draws
6
Akhmat
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ural and Akhmat?
From 8 meetings on record, Ural have won 1, Akhmat have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ural and Akhmat last play each other?
They last met on 31 May 2025, when Akhmat 2-0 Ural.
Who has won more matches between Ural and Akhmat?
Akhmat have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ural are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Akhmat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ural 62%, Akhmat 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Ural) and 44% (Akhmat).
On the defensive side: Ural have failed to score in 38% of games; Akhmat in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ural home games / Akhmat away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ural play Akhmat?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Ural's recent matches and 44% of Akhmat's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ural vs Akhmat usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Ural's recent games and 44% of Akhmat's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ural and Akhmat tend to score early?
Ural have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Akhmat in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ural edge out Akhmat 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ural beat Akhmat 2-1 at Ekaterinburg Arena, Relegation Round, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ural 1.80 xG and Akhmat 0.88 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ural attack 1.01 / defence 1.01 against Akhmat attack 0.80 / defence 1.16, drawn from 30/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ural 57% | Draw 27% | Akhmat 16%, with Ural to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ural 50%, Akhmat 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ural's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Akhmat's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ural 1.03 PPG, Akhmat 0.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ural win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.