Spartak Moscow 1-0 CSKA Moscow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Spartak Moscow at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Spartak Moscow vs CSKA Moscow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Spartak Moscow host CSKA Moscow at Lukoil Arena in Premier League, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 22 November 2025 at 13:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Spartak Moscow — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: L D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Spartak Moscow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Spartak Moscow at Lukoil Arena this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Premier League games this season, CSKA Moscow have recorded 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for CSKA Moscow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, CSKA Moscow have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Spartak Moscow at 2.00 PPG versus CSKA Moscow's 2.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, Spartak Moscow have won 2, CSKA Moscow 4, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2025, ended 2–3 with CSKA Moscow winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Spartak Moscow trading profile (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
CSKA Moscow trading profile (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spartak Moscow 44% versus CSKA Moscow 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spartak Moscow 62% | CSKA Moscow 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spartak Moscow 1.30 xG and CSKA Moscow 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spartak Moscow attack 1.078 / defence 0.939 | CSKA Moscow attack 1.008 / defence 0.899. League average goals — home 1.341 / away 1.103. Data: 45 Spartak Moscow games / 45 CSKA Moscow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spartak Moscow 40% | Draw 33% | CSKA Moscow 27%. Fair-value odds: Spartak Moscow 2.50 | Draw 3.03 | CSKA Moscow 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Spartak Moscow at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Spartak Moscow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.34 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates are neutral: Spartak Moscow 50% | CSKA Moscow 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spartak Moscow vs CSKA Moscow | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Lukoil Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Nov 2025, 13:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spartak Moscow 40% | Draw 33% | CSKA Moscow 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 50% | xG Spartak Moscow 1.30 / CSKA Moscow 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Spartak Moscow attack 1.078 / def 0.939 | CSKA Moscow attack 1.008 / def 0.899 | league avg home 1.341 / away 1.103 • Poisson stance: Spartak Moscow (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Spartak Moscow xG
Expected Goals
1.04
CSKA Moscow xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spartak Moscow vs CSKA Moscow kick off?
Spartak Moscow vs CSKA Moscow kicked off at 13:45 on Saturday 22 November 2025 at Lukoil Arena.
What was the final score in Spartak Moscow vs CSKA Moscow?
Spartak Moscow 1 - 0 CSKA Moscow.
Where is Spartak Moscow vs CSKA Moscow being played?
The match is being played at Lukoil Arena.
What competition is Spartak Moscow vs CSKA Moscow part of?
Spartak Moscow vs CSKA Moscow is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Spartak Moscow vs CSKA Moscow?
Our statistical model gives Spartak Moscow a 40% chance of winning, CSKA Moscow a 27% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Spartak Moscow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spartak Moscow vs CSKA Moscow?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Spartak Moscow and CSKA Moscow will score (BTTS).
Will Spartak Moscow vs CSKA Moscow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spartak Moscow and CSKA Moscow?
Record (9 meetings): Spartak Moscow 2W | Draws 3 | CSKA Moscow 4W.
What form are Spartak Moscow and CSKA Moscow in?
Spartak Moscow (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. CSKA Moscow (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Spartak Moscow's attack at 1.08x the league average against CSKA Moscow's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, CSKA Moscow's attack versus Spartak Moscow's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Spartak Moscow Win
40%
2.51
33%
3.06
27%
3.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Spartak Moscow xG
Total xG
2.34
1.04
CSKA Moscow xG
2.51
40%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
3.65
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
27%
3.67
Win to Nil
14%
7.11
7%
13.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 10.0 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.0 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.5 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spartak Moscow vs CSKA Moscow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Spartak Moscow and CSKA Moscow expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Spartak Moscow and 1.04 for CSKA Moscow, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Spartak Moscow vs CSKA Moscow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 45 outings, Spartak Moscow have picked up 1.82 PPG on a 24W 10D 11L record — L-D-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Spartak Moscow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
CSKA Moscow's form line: 27W 11D 7L from 45 games, 2.04 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W. The sample for CSKA Moscow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Spartak Moscow on 1.82 PPG, CSKA Moscow on 2.04. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Spartak Moscow have posted 2.09 PPG from 22 outings (14W 4D 4L).
On the road, CSKA Moscow have gone 12W 7D 3L from 22 away games — 1.95 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Spartak Moscow are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; CSKA Moscow are on 1.62 scored and 0.76 conceded.
Defensively: Spartak Moscow have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games; CSKA Moscow in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spartak Moscow
Blended
CSKA Moscow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spartak Moscow and CSKA Moscow in coming into this match?
Spartak Moscow have gone 24W 10D 11L in their last 45 games (1.82 PPG), while CSKA Moscow have gone 27W 11D 7L in their last 45 (2.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spartak Moscow at home or CSKA Moscow away?
Spartak Moscow's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spartak Moscow at home: 2.09 PPG; CSKA Moscow away: 1.95 PPG.
Have Spartak Moscow or CSKA Moscow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Spartak Moscow have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, CSKA Moscow in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Spartak Moscow and CSKA Moscow runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 22 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Spartak Moscow's record when hosting CSKA Moscow specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Spartak Moscow
3
Draws
4
CSKA Moscow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spartak Moscow and CSKA Moscow?
From 10 meetings on record, Spartak Moscow have won 3, CSKA Moscow have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Spartak Moscow and CSKA Moscow last play each other?
They last met on 22 November 2025, when Spartak Moscow 1-0 CSKA Moscow.
Who has won more matches between Spartak Moscow and CSKA Moscow?
CSKA Moscow have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Spartak Moscow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
CSKA Moscow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spartak Moscow 41%, CSKA Moscow 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 73% (Spartak Moscow) and 46% (CSKA Moscow). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 14% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Spartak Moscow keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; CSKA Moscow in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spartak Moscow home games / CSKA Moscow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spartak Moscow play CSKA Moscow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Spartak Moscow's recent matches and 50% of CSKA Moscow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Spartak Moscow vs CSKA Moscow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Spartak Moscow's matches and 46% of CSKA Moscow's.
Do Spartak Moscow and CSKA Moscow tend to score early?
Spartak Moscow have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, CSKA Moscow in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Spartak Moscow edge out CSKA Moscow 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Spartak Moscow beat CSKA Moscow 1-0 at Lukoil Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spartak Moscow 1.30 xG and CSKA Moscow 1.04 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. CSKA Moscow landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spartak Moscow attack 1.08 / defence 0.94 against CSKA Moscow attack 1.01 / defence 0.90, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spartak Moscow 40% | Draw 33% | CSKA Moscow 27%, with Spartak Moscow to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spartak Moscow 62%, CSKA Moscow 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spartak Moscow's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.
CSKA Moscow's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Spartak Moscow 1.82 PPG, CSKA Moscow 2.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Spartak Moscow win broke the near-deadlock. Spartak Moscow (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.91 average — tighter than their form line. CSKA Moscow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.