Krylia Sovetov 2-0 Nizhny Novgorod – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nizhny Novgorod at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Krylia Sovetov vs Nizhny Novgorod fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Solidarnost Arena plays host to Krylia Sovetov versus Nizhny Novgorod in Premier League, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Sunday 17 October 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Krylia Sovetov have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Krylia Sovetov, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Krylia Sovetov have posted 2W 0D 2L at Solidarnost Arena — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game.
Nizhny Novgorod's overall Premier League record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Nizhny Novgorod, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nizhny Novgorod's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 0L across 5 road games this term (2.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.20 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
Krylia Sovetov goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Nizhny Novgorod goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Krylia Sovetov 60% and Nizhny Novgorod 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Krylia Sovetov 50% | Nizhny Novgorod 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Krylia Sovetov 1.11 xG and Nizhny Novgorod 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Krylia Sovetov attack 1.097 / defence 1.168 | Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.935 / defence 0.989. League average goals — home 1.020 / away 1.203. Data: 10 Krylia Sovetov games / 10 Nizhny Novgorod games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 31% | Draw 27% | Nizhny Novgorod 41%. Fair-value odds: Krylia Sovetov 3.23 | Draw 3.70 | Nizhny Novgorod 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Nizhny Novgorod as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nizhny Novgorod if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. This conflicts with form data: Krylia Sovetov 50% | Nizhny Novgorod 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Krylia Sovetov vs Nizhny Novgorod | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Solidarnost Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Oct 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 31% | Draw 27% | Nizhny Novgorod 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Krylia Sovetov 1.11 / Nizhny Novgorod 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Krylia Sovetov attack 1.097 / def 1.168 | Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.935 / def 0.989 | league avg home 1.020 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: Nizhny Novgorod (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Krylia Sovetov xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Nizhny Novgorod xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Krylia Sovetov vs Nizhny Novgorod kick off?
Krylia Sovetov vs Nizhny Novgorod kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 17 October 2021 at Solidarnost Arena.
What was the final score in Krylia Sovetov vs Nizhny Novgorod?
Krylia Sovetov 2 - 0 Nizhny Novgorod.
Where is Krylia Sovetov vs Nizhny Novgorod being played?
The match is being played at Solidarnost Arena.
What competition is Krylia Sovetov vs Nizhny Novgorod part of?
Krylia Sovetov vs Nizhny Novgorod is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Krylia Sovetov vs Nizhny Novgorod?
Our statistical model gives Krylia Sovetov a 31% chance of winning, Nizhny Novgorod a 41% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Nizhny Novgorod the favourite.
Will both teams score in Krylia Sovetov vs Nizhny Novgorod?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Krylia Sovetov and Nizhny Novgorod will score (BTTS).
Will Krylia Sovetov vs Nizhny Novgorod have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and Nizhny Novgorod?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Krylia Sovetov and Nizhny Novgorod in?
Krylia Sovetov (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Nizhny Novgorod (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Krylia Sovetov's attack at 1.10x the league average against Nizhny Novgorod's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.11 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Nizhny Novgorod's attack (0.94x) against Krylia Sovetov's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 0-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nizhny Novgorod Win
31%
3.19
27%
3.66
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Krylia Sovetov xG
Total xG
2.42
1.31
Nizhny Novgorod xG
3.19
31%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
27%
3.72
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
8%
11.88
14%
7.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 11.7 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.9 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.2 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Krylia Sovetov vs Nizhny Novgorod?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Krylia Sovetov and Nizhny Novgorod expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Krylia Sovetov and 1.31 for Nizhny Novgorod, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Krylia Sovetov vs Nizhny Novgorod?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 10 outings, Krylia Sovetov have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 4W 1D 5L record — W-L-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Krylia Sovetov is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nizhny Novgorod's form line: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games, 1.40 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-W. The sample for Nizhny Novgorod is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for Krylia Sovetov against 1.40 for Nizhny Novgorod. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Krylia Sovetov have posted 1.50 PPG from 4 outings (2W 0D 2L).
On the road, Nizhny Novgorod have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 away games — 2.50 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 1.40 PPG overall record — Nizhny Novgorod travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nizhny Novgorod come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Krylia Sovetov are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Nizhny Novgorod are on 1.20 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Krylia Sovetov have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Nizhny Novgorod in 70%.
Last 10 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Krylia Sovetov
Blended
Nizhny Novgorod
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Krylia Sovetov and Nizhny Novgorod in coming into this match?
Krylia Sovetov have gone 4W 1D 5L in their last 10 games (1.30 PPG), while Nizhny Novgorod have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Krylia Sovetov at home or Nizhny Novgorod away?
Nizhny Novgorod's away record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Krylia Sovetov at home: 1.50 PPG; Nizhny Novgorod away: 2.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Nizhny Novgorod won 5-2 on 12 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Krylia Sovetov have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Nizhny Novgorod — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Krylia Sovetov
2
Draws
4
Nizhny Novgorod
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and Nizhny Novgorod?
From 10 meetings on record, Krylia Sovetov have won 4, Nizhny Novgorod have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Krylia Sovetov and Nizhny Novgorod last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Nizhny Novgorod 3-0 Krylia Sovetov.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Nizhny Novgorod are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Krylia Sovetov 50%, Nizhny Novgorod 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Krylia Sovetov) and 50% (Nizhny Novgorod).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Krylia Sovetov home games / Nizhny Novgorod away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Krylia Sovetov play Nizhny Novgorod?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Krylia Sovetov's games and 75% of Nizhny Novgorod's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Krylia Sovetov vs Nizhny Novgorod usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Krylia Sovetov's recent games and 50% of Nizhny Novgorod's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Krylia Sovetov and Nizhny Novgorod tend to score early?
Krylia Sovetov have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Nizhny Novgorod in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Krylia Sovetov cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Nizhny Novgorod.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Krylia Sovetov beat Nizhny Novgorod 2-0 at Solidarnost Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Krylia Sovetov 1.11 xG and Nizhny Novgorod 1.31 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Krylia Sovetov beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Nizhny Novgorod landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Krylia Sovetov attack 1.10 / defence 1.17 against Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.94 / defence 0.99, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Krylia Sovetov 31% | Draw 27% | Nizhny Novgorod 41%, with Nizhny Novgorod to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Krylia Sovetov win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Krylia Sovetov 50%, Nizhny Novgorod 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Nizhny Novgorod's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Krylia Sovetov 1.30 PPG, Nizhny Novgorod 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Krylia Sovetov win broke the near-deadlock. Krylia Sovetov (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Nizhny Novgorod (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.