Krylia Sovetov 0-2 Akron – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Krylia Sovetov at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Krylia Sovetov vs Akron fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 20 as Krylia Sovetov welcome Akron to Solidarnost Samara Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 9 March 2025 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Krylia Sovetov stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Krylia Sovetov, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Krylia Sovetov have posted 3W 2D 5L at Solidarnost Samara Arena — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Premier League games this season, Akron have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Akron, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Akron have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Krylia Sovetov 0.90 PPG, Akron 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Krylia Sovetov, 1 for Akron and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Nov 2024, ended 0–2 with Akron winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Krylia Sovetov in-play tendencies (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Akron in-play tendencies (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Krylia Sovetov 57% versus Akron 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Krylia Sovetov 52% | Akron 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Krylia Sovetov 1.69 xG and Akron 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Krylia Sovetov attack 0.971 / defence 1.064 | Akron attack 0.823 / defence 1.320. League average goals — home 1.320 / away 1.187. Akron bring a strong defensive rating of 1.320 — this is suppressing Krylia Sovetov's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 49 Krylia Sovetov games / 19 Akron games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 49% | Draw 31% | Akron 20%. Fair-value odds: Krylia Sovetov 2.04 | Draw 3.23 | Akron 5.00. Krylia Sovetov hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Krylia Sovetov are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Krylia Sovetov offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: Krylia Sovetov 60% | Akron 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Krylia Sovetov vs Akron | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Solidarnost Samara Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Mar 2025, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 49% | Draw 31% | Akron 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG Krylia Sovetov 1.69 / Akron 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Krylia Sovetov attack 0.971 / def 1.064 | Akron attack 0.823 / def 1.320 | league avg home 1.320 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Krylia Sovetov (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Krylia Sovetov xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Akron xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Krylia Sovetov vs Akron kick off?
Krylia Sovetov vs Akron kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 9 March 2025 at Solidarnost Samara Arena.
What was the final score in Krylia Sovetov vs Akron?
Krylia Sovetov 0 - 2 Akron.
Where is Krylia Sovetov vs Akron being played?
The match is being played at Solidarnost Samara Arena.
What competition is Krylia Sovetov vs Akron part of?
Krylia Sovetov vs Akron is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Krylia Sovetov vs Akron?
Our statistical model gives Krylia Sovetov a 49% chance of winning, Akron a 20% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Krylia Sovetov the favourite.
Will both teams score in Krylia Sovetov vs Akron?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Krylia Sovetov and Akron will score (BTTS).
Will Krylia Sovetov vs Akron have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and Akron?
Record (1 meetings): Krylia Sovetov 0W | Draws 0 | Akron 1W.
What form are Krylia Sovetov and Akron in?
Krylia Sovetov (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. Akron (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Krylia Sovetov's attack at 0.97x the league average against Akron's defence at 1.32x — combine the two and it projects 1.69 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Akron's attack versus Krylia Sovetov's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Krylia Sovetov Win
49%
2.03
31%
3.23
20%
5.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Krylia Sovetov xG
Total xG
2.73
1.04
Akron xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
5.05
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
18%
5.43
Win to Nil
17%
5.74
4%
27.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 11.5 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.7 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Krylia Sovetov vs Akron?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Krylia Sovetov and Akron expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Krylia Sovetov and 1.04 for Akron, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Krylia Sovetov vs Akron?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Krylia Sovetov come into this having played 21 games, going 5W 5D 11L for 0.95 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-D. The sample for Krylia Sovetov is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Akron sit at 1.19 PPG from 21 outings (7W 4D 10L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Akron is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Krylia Sovetov on 0.95 PPG, Akron on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Krylia Sovetov's home form reads 3W 2D 5L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.10 PPG return.
Away from home, Akron have taken 1.20 points per game from 10 outings (3W 3D 4L).
Goals in Recent Form
Krylia Sovetov are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Akron are on 1.24 scored and 1.81 conceded.
Last 21 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Krylia Sovetov
Blended
Akron
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Krylia Sovetov and Akron in coming into this match?
Krylia Sovetov have gone 5W 5D 11L in their last 21 games (0.95 PPG), while Akron have gone 7W 4D 10L in their last 21 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Krylia Sovetov at home or Akron away?
Akron's away record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Krylia Sovetov at home: 1.10 PPG; Akron away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Krylia Sovetov or Akron been keeping clean sheets recently?
Krylia Sovetov have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Akron in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Krylia Sovetov have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 May 2026, when Krylia Sovetov won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Krylia Sovetov's record when hosting Akron specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Krylia Sovetov
1
Draws
2
Akron
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and Akron?
From 5 meetings on record, Krylia Sovetov have won 2, Akron have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Krylia Sovetov and Akron last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when Akron 0-3 Krylia Sovetov.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Akron see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Krylia Sovetov 60%, Akron 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Krylia Sovetov and 60% for Akron. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Krylia Sovetov have failed to score in 30% of games; Akron in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Krylia Sovetov home games / Akron away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Krylia Sovetov play Akron?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Krylia Sovetov's recent matches and 40% of Akron's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Krylia Sovetov vs Akron usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Krylia Sovetov's matches and 60% of Akron's.
Do Krylia Sovetov and Akron tend to score early?
Krylia Sovetov have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Akron in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Akron cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Krylia Sovetov.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Akron beat Krylia Sovetov 0-2 at Solidarnost Samara Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Krylia Sovetov 1.69 xG and Akron 1.04 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Krylia Sovetov fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Akron outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Krylia Sovetov attack 0.97 / defence 1.06 against Akron attack 0.82 / defence 1.32, drawn from 49/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Krylia Sovetov 49% | Draw 31% | Akron 20%, with Krylia Sovetov to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Akron win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Krylia Sovetov 52%, Akron 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Akron's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Krylia Sovetov 0.95 PPG, Akron 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Akron win broke the near-deadlock. Krylia Sovetov (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward. Akron (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.