CSKA Moscow 0-0 Spartak Moscow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Spartak Moscow at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this CSKA Moscow vs Spartak Moscow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Spartak Moscow travel to VEB Arena to take on CSKA Moscow. The game is scheduled for Thursday 25 April 2024, 18:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, CSKA Moscow stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for CSKA Moscow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, CSKA Moscow have posted 5W 3D 2L at VEB Arena — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — CSKA Moscow are significantly better at VEB Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Premier League games this season, Spartak Moscow have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Spartak Moscow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Spartak Moscow have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: CSKA Moscow 1.30 PPG, Spartak Moscow 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, CSKA Moscow have won 2, Spartak Moscow 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Oct 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
CSKA Moscow in-play tendencies (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Spartak Moscow in-play tendencies (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — CSKA Moscow 63% and Spartak Moscow 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (CSKA Moscow 59% | Spartak Moscow 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects CSKA Moscow 1.48 xG and Spartak Moscow 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: CSKA Moscow attack 1.260 / defence 1.034 | Spartak Moscow attack 1.135 / defence 0.887. League average goals — home 1.325 / away 1.341. CSKA Moscow carry an above-average attack strength of 1.260 — their λ of 1.48 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 54 CSKA Moscow games / 54 Spartak Moscow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: CSKA Moscow 36% | Draw 24% | Spartak Moscow 40%. Fair-value odds: CSKA Moscow 2.78 | Draw 4.17 | Spartak Moscow 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.48 / 1.57) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Spartak Moscow at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Spartak Moscow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.06 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: CSKA Moscow 70% | Spartak Moscow 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: CSKA Moscow vs Spartak Moscow | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: VEB Arena • Kick-off: Thursday 25 Apr 2024, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: CSKA Moscow 36% | Draw 24% | Spartak Moscow 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG CSKA Moscow 1.48 / Spartak Moscow 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: CSKA Moscow attack 1.260 / def 1.034 | Spartak Moscow attack 1.135 / def 0.887 | league avg home 1.325 / away 1.341 • Poisson stance: Spartak Moscow (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
CSKA Moscow xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Spartak Moscow xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does CSKA Moscow vs Spartak Moscow kick off?
CSKA Moscow vs Spartak Moscow kicked off at 18:30 on Thursday 25 April 2024 at VEB Arena.
What was the final score in CSKA Moscow vs Spartak Moscow?
CSKA Moscow 0 - 0 Spartak Moscow.
Where is CSKA Moscow vs Spartak Moscow being played?
The match is being played at VEB Arena.
What competition is CSKA Moscow vs Spartak Moscow part of?
CSKA Moscow vs Spartak Moscow is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win CSKA Moscow vs Spartak Moscow?
Our statistical model gives CSKA Moscow a 36% chance of winning, Spartak Moscow a 40% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Spartak Moscow the favourite.
Will both teams score in CSKA Moscow vs Spartak Moscow?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both CSKA Moscow and Spartak Moscow will score (BTTS).
Will CSKA Moscow vs Spartak Moscow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between CSKA Moscow and Spartak Moscow?
Record (5 meetings): CSKA Moscow 2W | Draws 2 | Spartak Moscow 1W.
What form are CSKA Moscow and Spartak Moscow in?
CSKA Moscow (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-D-L. Spartak Moscow (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
CSKA Moscow's attacking strength (1.26x league average) is weighed against Spartak Moscow's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.48. The same calculation in reverse, Spartak Moscow's attack versus CSKA Moscow's defence, projects 1.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Spartak Moscow Win
36%
2.78
24%
4.16
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
CSKA Moscow xG
Total xG
3.06
1.57
Spartak Moscow xG
2.78
36%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
21%
4.83
23%
4.40
Win to Nil
7%
13.42
9%
10.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 7.4 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.0 | 8.6 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.1 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for CSKA Moscow vs Spartak Moscow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are CSKA Moscow and Spartak Moscow expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for CSKA Moscow and 1.57 for Spartak Moscow, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for CSKA Moscow vs Spartak Moscow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
CSKA Moscow's recent record stands at 26W 17D 11L from 54 games, a 1.76 PPG return, with W-D-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for CSKA Moscow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Spartak Moscow, meanwhile, have gone 26W 14D 14L across 54 games — 1.70 PPG, with L-D-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Spartak Moscow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: CSKA Moscow on 1.76 PPG, Spartak Moscow on 1.70. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, CSKA Moscow have managed 18W 6D 3L from 27 games — 2.22 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.76 PPG overall — CSKA Moscow are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Spartak Moscow's away record stands at 10W 6D 11L across 27 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, CSKA Moscow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
CSKA Moscow are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Spartak Moscow are on 1.74 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: CSKA Moscow have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 54 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
CSKA Moscow
Blended
Spartak Moscow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are CSKA Moscow and Spartak Moscow in coming into this match?
CSKA Moscow have gone 26W 17D 11L in their last 54 games (1.76 PPG), while Spartak Moscow have gone 26W 14D 14L in their last 54 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — CSKA Moscow at home or Spartak Moscow away?
CSKA Moscow's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — CSKA Moscow at home: 2.22 PPG; Spartak Moscow away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 22 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
CSKA Moscow's record when hosting Spartak Moscow specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
CSKA Moscow
3
Draws
3
Spartak Moscow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between CSKA Moscow and Spartak Moscow?
From 10 meetings on record, CSKA Moscow have won 4, Spartak Moscow have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did CSKA Moscow and Spartak Moscow last play each other?
They last met on 22 November 2025, when Spartak Moscow 1-0 CSKA Moscow.
Who has won more matches between CSKA Moscow and Spartak Moscow?
CSKA Moscow have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
CSKA Moscow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Spartak Moscow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — CSKA Moscow 63%, Spartak Moscow 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (CSKA Moscow) and 52% (Spartak Moscow). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: CSKA Moscow keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Spartak Moscow in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = CSKA Moscow home games / Spartak Moscow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when CSKA Moscow play Spartak Moscow?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of CSKA Moscow's games and 63% of Spartak Moscow's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is CSKA Moscow vs Spartak Moscow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of CSKA Moscow's matches and 52% of Spartak Moscow's.
Do CSKA Moscow and Spartak Moscow tend to score early?
CSKA Moscow have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Spartak Moscow in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at CSKA Moscow's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
CSKA Moscow and Spartak Moscow finished level at 0-0 at VEB Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting CSKA Moscow 1.48 xG and Spartak Moscow 1.57 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. CSKA Moscow fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Spartak Moscow landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of CSKA Moscow attack 1.26 / defence 1.03 against Spartak Moscow attack 1.14 / defence 0.89, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it CSKA Moscow 36% | Draw 24% | Spartak Moscow 40%, with Spartak Moscow to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (CSKA Moscow 59%, Spartak Moscow 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
CSKA Moscow's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Spartak Moscow's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — CSKA Moscow 1.76 PPG, Spartak Moscow 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. CSKA Moscow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Spartak Moscow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.